hazwoper Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Sorry about this, but I need a straight answer so I can decide if I need to change travel arrangements. I have a flight that gets into Newark at 5PM Friday. AS MODELED, will have trouble getting into Newark Friday? I know it looks like everything ends Friday morning, but I haven't flown into Newark right after a major storm (or any airport for that matter) and it would seem to me this could potentially keep me stuck in Houston for another day. TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yanks fan 27. When you say 1.5" qpf is that liquid to snow ration? An if so what are the ratio Yes it's liquid equivalent. 10:1 if we're lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Almost all of the individual Euro ensembles from last nights 00z run show a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Just curious after this mid week event are subsquent events going foward a week cold and white or warm and rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Sorry about this, but I need a straight answer so I can decide if I need to change travel arrangements. I have a flight that gets into Newark at 5PM Friday. AS MODELED, will have trouble getting into Newark Friday? I know it looks like everything ends Friday morning, but I haven't flown into Newark right after a major storm (or any airport for that matter) and it would seem to me this could potentially keep me stuck in Houston for another day. TIA Should be ok by then. I flew out of LGA last week about 3 hrs after the storm stopped and they had it cleaned up pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSheridan12 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Da hot dogs are out toniiight. Hello guys new to this forum im from Nova Scotia hope yous down mind me coming in asking questions for my area , and i can join in discussions ! shane, this is a forum specific to the new york city metropolitan area, we will most definitely ignore any questions you ask about NS. Also, people everywhere in this forum will probably ignore any question like "how many centimeters of snow will i get at my house" Yanks fan 27. When you say 1.5" qpf is that liquid to snow ration? An if so what are the ratio QPF is quantitative precipitation forecast. Aka the amount of liquid precipitation. Nothing to do with snow ratios. QPF is something thats forecasted for all seasons, just how much water will fall from the sky. the ratio is going to be middle-low because of how warm it is, on a typical storm the ratio is 10:1. The super heavy snow we just had was about 5:1 (just a guess?) and the really light snow we had early last week was about 20:1 (another guess?) we dont know what it's going to be now, for the models are in the early stages of pinning down the location of the low and amount of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 SREFs east of the Euro. Looks like a near BM track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hello guys new to this forum im from Nova Scotia hope yous down mind me coming in asking questions for my area , and i can join in discussions ! ~~Jealous~~ Wish I lived up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hello guys new to this forum im from Nova Scotia hope yous down mind me coming in asking questions for my area , and i can join in discussions ! The New England forum has a guy from NS there I think. That might be a better fit for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNAO Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 SREFs east of the Euro. Looks like a near BM track Pretty obvious they would be east of the EURO though. They will most likely move westward as we get closer to the storm. If this is storm is AMPED, it will be west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 SREFs east of the Euro. Looks like a near BM track 850 0c line stays well to the south and east for the entire storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Pretty obvious they would be east of the EURO though. They will most likely move westward as we get closer to the storm. If this is storm is AMPED, it will be west. Why is it obvious?? They could have come in just as amped....but didn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hello guys new to this forum im from Nova Scotia hope yous down mind me coming in asking questions for my area , and i can join in discussions ! welcome to the madness. with everyone in here focused on tight gradients and big implications locally, dont know that you're going to get any great insight for the canadian maritimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNAO Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Why is it obvious?? They could have come in just as amped....but didn't For the SREFs to come in as AMPED and west after the past runs of it, was pretty obvious it wouldn't completely flip to that solution in one run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Oops -- sorry. SREF are west/northwest of the 09z run. 0.75" QPF nearly to NYC. Tighter gradient on the NW Side. Perfect track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 For the SREFs to come in as AMPED and west after the past runs of it, was pretty obvious it wouldn't completely flip to that solution in one run. Lol I've seen the SREFs jump often. Anyway, moving on. Ride the Euro ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How are SREFs useful at this time frame compared to other models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Fine, here's the MAG 24 hour SREF precip totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 850 0c line stays well to the south and east for the entire storm The spread is also to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shanemacdonald23 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Going to be interesting to see the 18z GFS , i have a feeling its going to nudge a little east . ,. i believe all the ingredients will be onshore from the pacific ? in these 18z runs def by 0z runs tonight ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How are SREFs useful at this time frame compared to other models? Not as good yet it needs another 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heavy Snow Warning Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Going to be interesting to see the 18z GFS , i have a feeling its going to nudge a little east . ,. i believe all the ingredients will be onshore from the pacific ? in these 18z runs def by 0z runs tonight ? I think the GFS is still coming back west. it has been moving that way for multiple runs, and I doubt it's finished. I am personally worried this comes to far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Going to be interesting to see the 18z GFS , i have a feeling its going to nudge a little east . ,. i believe all the ingredients will be onshore from the pacific ? in these 18z runs def by 0z runs tonight ? Pointed out by the HPC earlier. (Thanks to Eskimo Joe) AN IMPORTANT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAD NOT YET COME ASHOREINTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING...SO SOME MARKED TRENDS MAY BE YET TO COME. THE 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET...HOWEVER...ARE CONSISTENT WITHTHE CURRENT TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH GIVES US SOME CONFIDENCE IN RECOMMENDING THEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Oops -- sorry. SREF are west/northwest of the 09z run. 0.75" QPF nearly to NYC. Tighter gradient on the NW Side. Perfect track. Lot of corrections today john, get on your game! Its almost crunchtime and your making these small mistakes already, americanwx prophet should be much better than this . SREF's look great btw especially NYC and better for coastal regions temp wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Pointed out by the HPC earlier. (Thanks to Eskimo Joe) I think the southern stream wave is inland now over CA, but the northern stream isn't fully sampled yet. Given the consistency in the models to this point, I think it would take a lot for a marked shift. Just because the S/W isn't on land doesn't mean the models have no clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Oops -- sorry. SREF are west/northwest of the 09z run. 0.75" QPF nearly to NYC. Tighter gradient on the NW Side. Perfect track. QPF and particularly the MSLP is further east, with respect to 09z. MSLP Spread on the west side has also decreased significantly. More certain, at least according to the SREF, that this isn't hugging the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 was hoping the SREFs showed a little more north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yea I think if anything once the northern stream is fully sampled that this might shift further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 QPF and particularly the MSLP is further east, with respect to 09z. MSLP Spread on the west side has also decreased significantly. More certain, at least according to the SREF, that this isn't hugging the coast. I mean, we're over analyzing here, but for the record I am staring at the zoomed in high resolution graphics and it very clearly nudged northwest with the higher QPF totals (.50".75" 1.00" lines). The northwest fringe has a sharper gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think the southern stream wave is inland now over CA, but the northern stream isn't fully sampled yet. Given the consistency in the models to this point, I think it would take a lot for a marked shift. Just because the S/W isn't on land doesn't mean the models have no clue. Exactly, but it does help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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