REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I don't buy the nw shift or the se shift...any trend is going to come from the strength and timing of that northern impulse that has yet to be sampled. Weaker and we get the euro tight to coast solution...stronger it bumps the low farther east ala ukie.I would like to reference northern stream S/W tendencies this winter. Models have consistently had them weaker only to have them more potent as they've gotten closer to the event. I see no reason why this will not be in play here either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This nam run will prob end up a little west of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I don't buy the nw shift or the se shift...any trend is going to come from the strength and timing of that northern impulse that has yet to be sampled. Weaker and we get the euro tight to coast solution...stronger it bumps the low farther east ala ukie. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I747 I agree. The reason I said in the first few pages that those hoping for a hugger will find themselves banging their heads against the desk in the next 24 hours. I'm out on a limb and none of this is due to weenie hopes for my location. This goes east. 50-75 miles from where it is currently shown. Right now I don't think anyone "Loses" with this but it's going east. Beat me up if you want lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I would like to reference northern stream S/W tendencies this winter. Models have consistently had them weaker only to have them more potent as they've gotten closer to the event. I see no reason why this will not be in play here either. Yup was just going to post similar. I do not buy the Euro basically asserting that the kicker will have the minor impact depicted. Euro doesn't do well with these kickers without proper sampling which it won't have until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Did they even look at the Euro? Whoa. That's not even the for the duration of the storm HPC 20z 5 day total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think the euro is too tucked in. It's been having trouble resolving the Northern Stream all season, and I don't believe this situation is any different in this regard. The shortwave kicker over the GL is going to keep this from backing into the coast. The GFS I believe is handling the northern stream energy better, but is not nailing down the southern stream energy as the Euro is renowned for. Additionally the GFS is most likely too far east, due to its typical bias within this range. The surface reflection according the H500, looks too strung out and too far east. Currently I like a compromise of the 12z Euro/12z GFS, which would take this system 50 miles or so within the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Its really digging @ 48, northern stream look more energetic too Its going negative at 51, earlier than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 maybe you should take time to read the timestamp - day 1 -3 starting at 0Z tuesday through 0Z friday - its the new one just released Where on earth are they getting their guidance from? GFS surface map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Is the out to sea solution still a possibility or have we passed that point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 That's not even the for the duration of the storm HPC 20z 5 day total p120i.gif I saw thru 0z Fri and forgot timing has been pushed back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 QPF shield is a good deal further north across GA/SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This is a little surprising. Would have expected a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The NAM is coming West this run. The northern stream energy is significantly stronger and the trough is really digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think the euro is too tucked in. It's been having trouble resolving the Northern Stream all season, and I don't believe this situation is any different in this regard. The shortwave kicker over the GL is going to keep this from backing into the coast. The GFS I believe is handling the northern stream energy better, but is not nailing down the southern stream energy as the Euro is renowned for. Additionally the GFS is most likely too far east, due to its typical bias within this range. The surface reflection according the H500, looks too strung out and too far east. Currently I like a compromise of the 12z Euro/12z GFS, which would take this system 50 miles or so within the BM. My thoughts exactly and that's basically the 12z UKIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Question: Why is the northern stream acting as a kicker and not phasing in? What factors determine which happens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Is the out to sea solution still a possibility or have we passed that point? We are definitely passed that point. There's not enough blocking to keep it off shore by at least 100 miles. So a Coastal Runner seems more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Little stronger at 51hr over the FL PH at the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hpc EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE AND WINTER STORM... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE ON THE LARGE SCALE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM CERTAINLY APPEARS IN ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS. PRECIPITATION IS FOCUSED INITIALLY ALONG A MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE ORIENTED WEST TO EAST. LOW PRESSURE THEN DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND TRACKS TO JUST OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC/DELMARVA TO NEW JERSEY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OF THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS ARE PLAUSIBLE...BUT THERE ARE VERY MEANINGFUL STRENGTH/TRACK DIFFERENCES. OUR PREFERENCE IS BASED ON TRENDS IN SOME OF THE TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK DETAILS. THE PAST TWO RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE WHILE ALSO BEING VERY STRONGLY DEVELOPED WITH THE SURFACE LOW. THE OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS TOWARD A LOW TRACK THAT IS MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS GEORGIA AND ADJACENT STATES ON DAY 2...AND THEN FARTHER EAST...SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE ON DAY 3. GIVEN THAT THE PARENT UPPER WAVE IS INITIALLY OF VERY LOW AMPLITUDE AND EMBEDDED IN FAST ZONAL FLOW...WE PREFER THE NON-ECMWF CONSENSUS. WE OMITTED THE CANADIAN FROM THIS CONSENSUS AS ITS SOLUTION IS SLIGHTLY FAST. THE NAM/GFS ARE LIKELY NOT PERFECT...BUT THEY HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEANS...ESPECIALLY FOR TRACK AND TIMING. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS EVIDENCE FROM MULTIPLE RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND THE LATEST UKMET...AS WELL AS SEVERAL 12Z GEFS MEMBERS...THAT THE LOW LEVEL CYCLONE MAY DROP DEEPER THAN THE NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS BY 14/00Z. AN IMPORTANT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE HAD NOT YET COME ASHORE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS MORNING...SO SOME MARKED TRENDS MAY BE YET TO COME. THE 12Z NAM/GFS/UKMET...HOWEVER...ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS...WHICH GIVES US SOME CONFIDENCE IN RECOMMENDING THEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I like a track somewhat west of the B/M, weighted towards the Euro but not quite as west. The GFS likes to overplay the northern stream and may be pushing the low too far east and weakening it too much, but the Euro's bias of holding southern stream energy back and strengthening it may be at play too, which would mean maybe a slightly faster and weaker southern stream wave and further east track. In a progressive pattern, the northern stream kicker may be a touch faster also, and act to nudge the track east some. But we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Nam has sped things up by a few hours (so the kicker is further to the west allowing it to amp more)...making the turn now @ 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looks like this is going to be one of those NAM runs that shows an epic solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM is going to come in really amplified this run..sfc low is kissing OBX at 60 and the jet orientation is going to bring it near ACY or a tick east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How do you know he nam is west or east ? The low is still over FL at hr 51 I'm already out to hour 60. Strong low over eastern NC. You can just tell by the orientation of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How do you know he nam is west or east ? The low is still over FL at hr 51 H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This was SREF mean for HR78: And 81: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 NAM is going to come in really amplified this run..sfc low is kissing OBX at 60 and the jet orientation is going to bring it near ACY or a tick east of there.Yes it does look a good bit west but im also smart in knowing the NAM is notoriously amped and warm as well. This would fit well with the EURO solution but im not sold on the euro solution being correct seeing its performance with northern stream features has been poor-unsatisfactory this winter john Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This is going to end up close to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Moderate snow into southern sections by hour 66. This is a tightly wound up bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hour 69 CCB ownage begins. What a freakin bomb. Sub 1000mb off the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This is going to end up close to the Euro. Yea with much more qpf (very nam like) This run will be epic if the 850 line stays south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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