earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 To continue discussion from the previous thread.. It's going to be a really interesting northwestern edge that's for sure. The mid level winds are really pressing on the development of the cold conveyor belt/associated precipitation. But if the models are correct, this could be some of the heaviest snow we have seen in this area in a while. The modeled lift and dynamics are extremely impressive within the banding and although the snow growth and accumulation rates may not be "perfect" based on the thermal profiles, there is going to be some epic paste-snow in these bands should they develop. The mid level setup on the models right now argues for a deformation band from DC to PHL and then moving northeastward to NJ/NYC/LI. But that can change. For now..it looks really impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looks like the timing of the storm has slowed as per the Nam so the major part of the storm occurs Thursday during the day. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew C. Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Am I right that the system appears to be developing a bit slower than was forecasted yesterday, with the heaviest precipitation occuring (in NYC) late morning through evening on Thursday vs. early morning through afternoon on Thursday? If so, then it would be the evening rush hour on Thursday that would be impacted more than the morning rush? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The height of the storm on the NAM looks to be Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. (Since I know people are asking) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 The NAM is showing one of the most impressive banding signals in this area in a few years. As of now we have to take it as eye candy only given that the NAM is well out of its "useful" range. But very impressive.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The 4k NAM which only runs to hour 60 is pretty impressive down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Just think what a band like this would do to Thursday travel from NC/VA border up to NYC. Schools closed is given with current thinking but are emergency mangers going to tell 20 million people not to go to work Thursday? NAM has large 2" qpf, even knocking that down 2/3 you get 12-18" snow right over I-95 during the day with 2-4" snowfall rates! Easy to picture cars stranded somewhere due to timing of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 According to soundings, the dynamic cooling occurs between 78-84hrs. When we get more underneath stronger banding on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The NAM is showing one of the most impressive banding signals in this area in a few years. As of now we have to take it as eye candy only given that the NAM is well out of its "useful" range. But very impressive.. namNE_700_vvel_078.gif It is the NAM but even if you cut down on its overall intensity it would still yield an easy MECS from PHL-NYC and LI up to SNE. Easily 12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Are we within the NAM's range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Are we within the NAM's range? Negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Are we within the NAM's range? Not yet. Come to think of it, I don't think the Nam has a range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The NAM is showing one of the most impressive banding signals in this area in a few years. As of now we have to take it as eye candy only given that the NAM is well out of its "useful" range. But very impressive.. namNE_700_vvel_078.gif Lifting is even more impressive at 500mb. But like you said, it's just eye candy now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 There are differences on the West Coast, but you can't simply toss the comparison to Jan 26-27 2011 at this point as shown on most forecast models. A very similar evolution with a phased shortwave trying to amplify up along the East Coast. Intense banding, lift and dynamics -- as its stands now this looks a tick farther west of that event. But you can compare the east coast on these two maps for yourself. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_12z/f78.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2011/012621.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Lifting is even more impressive at 500mb. But like you said, it's just eye candy now. just to the south of NYC ... been the favored area this year, and wouldnt be surprised to see coastal areas south of NYC cash in once again as I expect the extreme dynamics to overcome the marginal temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yes, thats right. Keep on creaming over the NAM @ 84 hours. By tomorrow afternoon there will be a completely different scenario on the table. But for now...here is the HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 There are differences on the West Coast, but you can't simply toss the comparison to Jan 26-27 2011 at this point as shown on most forecast models. A very similar evolution with a phased shortwave trying to amplify up along the East Coast. Intense banding, lift and dynamics -- as its stands now this looks a tick farther west of that event. But you can compare the east coast on these two maps for yourself. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRF_12z/f78.gif http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2011/012621.png We want to see H5 and H7 lows closing off to the south and east of us, to get a setup like 1/26-27/11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 We want to see H5 and H7 lows closing off to the south and east of us, to get a setup like 1/26-27/11. Agreed. As depicted.. http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/12/NE/namNE_500_avort_084.gif http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/NAM/12/NE/namNE_700_rhum_084.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The pseudo Omega Block in E Canada that is evident prior to the storm may just be enough to keep this storm from cutting to our west. That, and the kicker, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I'm not sure it will be that different-storm's likely coming up the coast, details as to who gets the best QPF and snows to be worked out, but hard to see how this misses at this point for NYC and vicinity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 all we need is 3.5" Thursday in KNYC to give us 30" since 1/21...That's a lock on some models but it's still to far out for any snow amounts....I think we could get at least another inch of liquid from this and at least 50% of it snow...All snow would push this winter into the historic category... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 all we need is 3.5" Thursday in KNYC to give us 30" since 1/21...That's a lock on some models but it's still to far out for any snow amounts....I think we could get at least another inch of liquid from this and at least 50% of it snow...All snow would push this winter into the historic category... Well according to the 00z ECMWF Ensembles, there's a greater than 95% chance of 3", and a greater than 80% chance of 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well according to the 00z ECMWF Ensembles, there's a greater than 95% chance of 3", and a greater than 80% chance of 6"How far N and W does that extend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This looks good to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 The GFS looks better through 42 hours with a more aggressive northern stream and a well positioned southern stream trough for a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 More backside energy on the 12z GFS so far, will def. be a stronger storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How far N and W does that extend? 6" contour runs from CTP to about ALB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 These are about as significant of upper level changes as you'll see on the GFS through 48 hours. This model likes to trend, tick and slowly adjust. So far the changes are notable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 These are about as significant of upper level changes as you'll see on the GFS through 48 hours. This model likes to trend, tick and slowly adjust. So far the changes are notable. Better sampling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 GFS has the strong energy dropping into the backside of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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