Allsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 hr 72 heavy snow balt-phl..mod snow nyc…low inside OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Crushing CCB hour 78. The 850mb freezing line is very close to I-78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Another coastal hugger. Wet snow bomb for the Western suburbs. 850mb looks a tad warm for the coastal plain after the initial slug of snow. I would suspect that the warming is probably overdone however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 This is really tucked in and amplified...the surface low is directly S of LI at hour 84. But there is crushing snow from NYC W and N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Another coastal hugger. Wet snow bomb for the Western suburbs. 850mb looks a tad warm for the coastal plain after the initial slug of snow. I would suspect that the warming is probably overdone however. Where does the low pass at C NJ lattitude? Off shore or on the beaches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 hr 78 992 kissing the delmarva….snow/rain line looks to be nyc-abe….obv dynamics might cool us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hour 84 is a 980's mb low right off the NJ coast. Eastern PA to Maine CCB ownage. Again temps look a little hairy but it's probably wet snow mostly everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's the GGEM. Crushed on the front. Then dry slot from hours 78-84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 hr 90 984 inside the bm….ton of snow this run….nw areas do the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 The closed H5 low and vort track over Southeast PA and NJ this run. Way west of all other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Hour 78 0 line thru KNYC 1 inch QPF has fallen Surface is 33- thats colder than at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 50 miles further east would be perfect. Still plenty of time to work out those details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's the GGEM. Crushed on the front. Then dry slot from hours 78-84. Yep...Looking more likely this is what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This is really tucked in and amplified...the surface low is directly S of LI at hour 84. But there is crushing snow from NYC W and N. John when you are done with the PBP do you feel that it is perhaps a little too tucked to the coast? I have a feeling this winds up 60 or so miles east of whats shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's a very fragile setup though it seems the Euro is the western outlier and too amped whereas the gfs is still further east and not as potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's the GGEM. Crushed on the front. Then dry slot from hours 78-84. Yeah, but how far west does the dry slot go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 50 miles further east would be perfect. Still plenty of time to work out those details. Yep 30-50 miles is all we need...and that will put it right over the SST boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 John when you are done with the PBP do you feel that it is perhaps a little too tucked to the coast? I have a feeling this winds up 60 or so miles east of whats shown.Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Why? That's what the ensembles have been showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It's a very fragile setup though it seems the Euro is the western outlier and too amped whereas the gfs is still further east and not as potent.Wouldn't call it an outlier since it has led the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 wow, lots o peeps contradicting each other in their reading of the Euro...dryslot, crushed, ton of snow, colder, warmer..hilarious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If you are at the coast the 12z suites are huge today , all snow , and the Euro which droped 6 inches at 0z before changing over , now drops 10 . Nothing to complain about here . There was no huge tic W , this has come a little east - its stronger and another 50 miles over 72 hours and u have the UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 50 miles further east would be perfect. Still plenty of time to work out those details. Speak for yourself. This run is about as good as it gets for the interior on a miller A. The timing is over 24 hours from start to finish. QPF is 1.5"+ everywhere with 1.75"+ for SE NJ. The 1"+ line goes back to central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Wouldn't call it an outlier since it has led the way. The Ukmet has led the way IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How much of that 1.5" QPF is snow for northern NJ would you estimate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 At hour 78 you have a frame of 7"+ falling right over Morristown in less than 6 hours. That's what you call heavy snow rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How much of that 1.5" QPF is snow for northern NJ would you estimate? It's more than 80% snow for NE NJ and more than 90% snow NW of 287 and north of 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro snowmaps show 10-14 for NYC before the possible changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 wow, lots o peeps contradicting each other in their reading of the Euro...dryslot, crushed, ton of snow, colder, warmer..hilarious How so? Its heavy snow for the coast to start 6-8….then the metro area goes to rain dry slot…..nw areas get hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Speak for yourself. This run is about as good as it gets for the interior on a miller A. The timing is over 24 hours from start to finish. QPF is 1.5"+ everywhere with 1.75"+ for SE NJ. The 1"+ line goes back to central PA. Yea yanks the sharp cut off might give u some trouble with this storm if it does move 50 miles west....that would be epic for the city tho, essp if that band on the nam happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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