IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean looks nearly identical to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I think the GFS is still coming back west. it has been moving that way for multiple runs, and I doubt it's finished. I am personally worried this comes to far west. My hope is with the GL disturbance that this really has no more room to come further west then what the Euro is showing. I think the Euro is a hair too far west and is having difficulty with the exact strength of the northern stream (as it has been doing all this winter). Once all those pieces are sampled correctly I feel it will settle more towards its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Pointed out by the HPC earlier. (Thanks to Eskimo Joe) Yes, this is very important and has me less confident than normal at this time frame. Need to wait to 0z tonight before Northern Stream energy begins to makes its way on shore. Huge implications, dependent upon this feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yea I think if anything once the northern stream is fully sampled that this might shift further east. Lol I was just thinking/posting the exact same thing. Euro is furthest west of guidance and I feel it is not handling the Nrn stream correctly yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 For those with the Weather Bell Euro Ens Idie link, they're rolling out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Sub 988mb low tucked right into the NJ coast. Gorgeous for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 For those with the Weather Bell Euro Ens Idie link, they're rolling out now. I already posted what they show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Sub 988mb low tucked right into the NJ coast. Gorgeous for the interior. Just out of curiosity what site do you use for ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Just out of curiosity what site do you use for ensembles? Storm vista. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Eric Horst put out his first map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shanemacdonald23 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean looks nearly identical to the op. Usually the case with the bias of there operational .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I already posted what they show. Individual members, not the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 The Euro ensembles are slower and a bit farther south than the 00z run. In fact they have also increased precipitation and show the CCB overhead. So while 850s warm a bit towards the end they have a similar impressive snow signal to the OP run at least on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 First look at the Plumes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The Euro ensembles are slower and a bit farther south than the 00z run. In fact they have also increased precipitation and show the CCB overhead. So while 850s warm a bit towards the end they have a similar impressive snow signal to the OP run at least on the front end. Im hoping that by the time there's a sub 990 low just east of Cape May, NJ that as we warm we would also dry slot. I know no one wants to hear dry slot but in this instance if the low were that tucked in it may actually help shut off the precip as the warming does occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 WSWs up in the DMV (DC/MD/VA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Individual members, not the mean. No, the mean is exactly what I said. 988mb low right on the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Im hoping that by the time there's a sub 990 low just east of Cape May, NJ that as we warm we would also dry slot. I know no one wants to hear dry slot but in this instance if the low were that tucked in it may actually help shut off the precip as the warming does occur. Me personally i think the EURO OP and ensembles will shift east a bit away from the tucked solutions to the rest of the clustered globals/GFS etc. ive seen it with these systems amp up more than other models to correct east a bit over time. Also calculating a northern stream feature really isnt its high point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 No, the mean is exactly what I said. 988mb low right on the NJ coast. Ugh that's not good. Great for the interior but sucks further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 We cannot have the initial surface low develop as strongly as the Euro suggests and go inland over North Carolina...if that occurs the PVA is going crazy and we're pushing mid level warmth right into our area. If you want mostly snow that has to happen just a hair farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 No, the mean is exactly what I said. 988mb low right on the NJ coast. I hear you I'm interested in the individual members that are coming out right now. Thank you for the PBP on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 No, the mean is exactly what I said. 988mb low right on the NJ coast. He understands that. He's trying to say that the individual members are coming out on weatherbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 No, the mean is exactly what I said. 988mb low right on the NJ coast. Me personally i think the EURO OP and ensembles will shift east a bit away from the tucked solutions to the rest of the clustered globals/GFS etc. ive seen it with these systems amp up more than other models to correct east a bit over time. Also calculating a northern stream feature really isnt its high point Yea I feel the euro is still struggling with the NRN stream currently. We need to let that feature get onshore into some better sampling to really garner an idea of how it will affect everything. Right now I am going with a blend of Euro/GFS, I feel the Euro has the best handle on the SRN features (A significant coastal low) and the GFS is probably currently doing best with the NRN disturbance as has been the case all this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Looks like a little more digging in the southern stream on the nam through 36. Southern stream def looks more energetic but also slightly more of a positive tilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Me personally i think the EURO OP and ensembles will shift east a bit away from the tucked solutions to the rest of the clustered globals/GFS etc. ive seen it with these systems amp up more than other models to correct east a bit over time. Also calculating a northern stream feature really isnt its high pointI don't buy the nw shift or the se shift...any trend is going to come from the strength and timing of that northern impulse that has yet to be sampled. Weaker and we get the euro tight to coast solution...stronger it bumps the low farther east ala ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 We cannot have the initial surface low develop as strongly as the Euro suggests and go inland over North Carolina...if that occurs the PVA is going crazy and we're pushing mid level warmth right into our area. If you want mostly snow that has to happen just a hair farther east. Exactly, ideally this all occurs over OBX and not inland. I believe with a kicker like the GFS has versus the Euro that this may be the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This is the new HPC qpf map - not much precip up here http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif Thats Days 1-3. Not the entire storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Mark Ellinwood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This is the new HPC qpf map - not much precip up here http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif Did they even look at the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This is the new HPC qpf map - not much precip up here http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif Whoa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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