user13 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Snow maps are hilarious on instantweathermaps. You can't see NJ / NYC under 16-24" lol and its not even finished Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Just got NAM'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 500-700mb charts are incredible and ideal for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Storm finally pulls away Thursday night, late. QPF is well over an inch for everyone. 1"+ into NE PA. Snow maps are ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 20+ hour even on the nam...epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Weenie-free snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Lol, these images and outputs are probably top 10 territory for snow here. It's too bad the NAM is not reliable at all this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 We all know the NAM will slowly continue to trend NW...if i'm sitting 20+miles NW of the major cities I'm drooling right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Damn and it's a nice colder run too, which is a huge plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 We all know the NAM will slowly continue to trend NW...if i'm sitting 20+miles NW of the major cities I'm drooling right now. Exactly.. We are still 66 hrs out. The trend has been west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Why couldn't this be 24 hours out instead of 60 ....Euro with its more NW track should likely win, though the NAM 700mb makes a lot of sense with how it is modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Mt. Holly's updated snow and ice maps thru 7PM Thurs, Watches issued from Ocean County south and west: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 One positive for the interior crew is that it has trended west. Trend probably isn't done yet. Enjoy! Plenty of wiggles from run to run. Lots of folks will be pulling their hair out wishing for the ultimate IMBY results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Why couldn't this be 24 hours out instead of 60 ....Euro with its more NW track should likely win, though the NAM 700mb makes a lot of sense with how it is modeled. Thats only been this winter...with theses types of storms its usually too amped... This run goes right over the SST boundary I have been talking about. So i actually like this track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick5892 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What is the deal with this winter? Why does every single storm work out well. It just seems like this has happened way too many times. Most of us here are definitely due for some heartbreak. This is amazing. Best winter I can rememeber in a REALLY long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 We all know the NAM will slowly continue to trend NW...if i'm sitting 20+miles NW of the major cities I'm drooling right now. At this range the NAM actually tends to be too amplified. But you can see how the kicker arrives at a great time to push the storm east a little. If the kicker is slower, it likely would have been warmer and the low more tucked in. Coastal areas need an aggressive kicker to keep this all snow and remove the threat of a dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 We will really have to wait to get better sampling from the N SW tomorrow morning . Lets hope the changes are negligible . Sometimes small changes 48 hours out don't turn out to wreck the entire solution as they would have if there was an error 120 hours out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 18z Nam interacted more with Northern stream pv, relative to its 12z run yielding the more amped solution. Nam is playing catch up with the Euro and GFS in this regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 18z Nam interacted more with Northern stream pv, relative to its 12z run yielding the more amped solution. Nam is playing catch up with the Euro and GFS in this regard. Also idn if it's just my weary eyes but WOW does the Nam look cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 John, take a look at the Euro Individual members on WxBell. Some of them are seriously tucked into the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 For those worrying about the JMA doing something like cutting inland after seeing only out to 72 , here at 96 you can see it prob crosses the BM . Even though at 72 , we didn't take it seriously let this ease you`re mind . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Storm finally pulls away Thursday night, late. QPF is well over an inch for everyone. 1"+ into NE PA. Snow maps are ridiculous. Late Thursday night? According to the NAM, precipitation ends by around 7pm Thursday region wide and heavy precip is done by mid to late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 For those worrying about the JMA doing something like cutting inland after seeing only out to 72 , here at 96 you can see it prob crosses the BM . Even though at 72 , we didn't take it seriously let this ease you`re mind . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Nice trowal sig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 John, take a look at the Euro Individual members on WxBell. Some of them are seriously tucked into the coast. As one of my great professors always taught me, toss the outliers at each end (not saying they are outliers relative to other guidance) but toss the furthest west/east and then smooth the average and see what you get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 We all know the NAM will slowly continue to trend NW...if i'm sitting 20+miles NW of the major cities I'm drooling right now. In this set up it is not that simple. The incoming kicker and westerly flow will only allow for so much of a westward trend. I actually tend to think that we will see a tick southeast over time, but yes it is possible this ends up a little more tucked in than the NAM. Even the warmer models give us all a foot of snow...I don't think there should be any panic in here at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The EURO has a tough more sharper shortwave at 60-66 hours compared to the NAM, this difference pulls the low in a little bit closer. The NAM was more neutrally tilted at that stage. I just feel eventually the NAM will catch up and continue to bring this farther NW, but we'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The NAM has 1.5-1.6 QPF all snow for KNYC...gotta love the 18z NAM. It's fun to dream... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 John, take a look at the Euro Individual members on WxBell. Some of them are seriously tucked into the coast. Where are individual members on Wxbell? I don't see them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Enough said... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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