PB GFI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Euro snowmaps show 10-14 for NYC before the possible changeover. And at 0z it was 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 wow, lots o peeps contradicting each other in their reading of the Euro...dryslot, crushed, ton of snow, colder, warmer..hilarious Not at all. All of those things can occur depending on what part of the metro area you're in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Speak for yourself. This run is about as good as it gets for the interior on a miller A. The timing is over 24 hours from start to finish. QPF is 1.5"+ everywhere with 1.75"+ for SE NJ. The 1"+ line goes back to central PA. Yea yanks the sharp cut off might give u some trouble with this storm if it does move 50 miles west....that would be epic for the city tho, essp if that band on the nam happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Yea yanks the sharp cut off might give u some trouble with this storm if it does move 50 miles west....that would be epic for the city tho, essp if that band on the nam happens If the Euro shifts 50 miles east we would still be okay out here but the heaviest totals would be over the city and Long Island. One mans gain is anothers blunder here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 How so? Its heavy snow for the coast to start 6-8….then the metro area goes to rain dry slot…..nw areas get hammered There would likely be another area of heavy snow with the 500mb low that passes over that area (as long as it stays closed), so even some places that get dryslotted for a time would get pummeled again. Same situation as 1/26/11. With such a strong UA presentation, I don't buy the models that have a minor CCB. It would mean real business. Given that all other models are over the BM, a compromise track might be best but weighed a little closer to the Euro track. So that would be maybe 50-70 miles SE of Montauk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman9 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Not at all. All of those things can occur depending on what part of the metro area you're in. ok, fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 We may have 2 feet of snow on the ground if it's a heavy hitter like the NAM/Euro/UK. not according to the euro....anyone have euro soundings for NYC/ISP/JFK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If the Euro shifts 50 miles east we would still be okay out here but the heaviest totals would be over the city and Long Island. One mans gain is anothers blunder here. If the 1" line is over central PA, a 50 mile east shift would be immaterial to you. The way banding sets up in these, you guys could easily still get crushed. Numerous storms that were supposed to jackpot for me ended up jackpotting for places closer to you, 2/12/06 and Boxing Day among them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith O Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The Ukmet has led the way IMO Led the way with what, nothing has happened yet? We can go back and see who led the way when the event is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 If the 1" line is over central PA, a 50 mile east shift would be immaterial to you. The way banding sets up in these, you guys could easily still get crushed. Numerous storms that were supposed to jackpot for me ended up jackpotting for places closer to you, 2/12/06 and Boxing Day among them. I was a little too far west for Boxing Day. Only about 13". Not complaining, but 15 miles to my east was over 20". Took a ride out to PA a few days after. By the time I made it to Warren County the snowpack was under 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 not according to the euro....anyone have euro soundings for NYC/ISP/JFK? If there's another foot of snow that falls from this, some places will be approaching 2 feet of snow on the ground afterwards given what's already on the ground from prior storms, so yes. The Euro is apparently a huge front end snow to a dryslot/light rain, so it nails the city too. A slight bit further east track means little chance at a dryslot or much mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 not according to the euro....anyone have euro soundings for NYC/ISP/JFK?Euro is the western outlier...30 miles east and nyc is all snow...IF that band on the nam trains right over the city like it showed this will be epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 We have 5 more major model suites before the storm to iron out details. Enjoy the ride no matter what model shows for your backyard. Thank God we're within a few days and all models are saying GO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Is this still a Wednesday night Thursday storm or is it now Thursday into Friday??? Might be a dumb question but looking thru the post I saw one person say Wednesday night Thursday and another say Thursday into Friday just trying to get appointment's squared away. Thanks for your help... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Guys need to stop with the imby analysis and just focus on the storm as a whole it's becoming very unbearable lately if the coast changes it's still a huge storm, if it slides 50 miles east it still going to effect alit of people just it back and enjoy it, we were killing for a storm like this and now it's here and we are fighting over who is changing over to rain or not, who cares it will change again relax and enjoy it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Is this still a Wednesday night Thursday storm or is it now Thursday into Friday??? Might be a dumb question but looking thru the post I saw one person say Wednesday night Thursday and another say Thursday into Friday just trying to get appointment's squared away. Thanks for your help... It should get going thurs am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The 12z Suite was outstanding today , the NAM GFS UKMET GGEM all offer HEAVY snow area wide , only the GFS with its typical bias allows some its energy to escape east at hr 78 - that will come W . The Euro is 1.5 really area wide and 25 miles jog east isn`t goin to fringe anyone . This is a big system and will crush eveyone east of the APP all the way into NE . The Euro is at 12z is further east than at 0z and no one is fringed , at 0z KNYC recieves 6 inches of snow before a change to rain at 12z they get 12 . Look at the trend here and don`t take each model and agonize over it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
windvane Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 convective nature- all I want is thundersnow Cantore special where will he be hanging out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Where's the cutoff line for us Long Islander's? Is NYC the eastern most section that will be all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This seems to be a tough forecast. All of the news channels in the NYC NJ area still don't know. Some say over a foot some say rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 It should get going thurs am Thanks so im assuming travel will be a better on Friday than Thursday!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Well the afternoon updates from all eastern region HQ's should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The 12z Suite was outstanding today , the NAM GFS UKMET GGEM all offer HEAVY snow area wide , only the GFS with its typical bias allows some its energy to escape east at hr 78 - that will come W . The Euro is 1.5 really area wide and 25 miles jog east isn`t goin to fringe anyone . This is a big system and will crush eveyone east of the APP all the way into NE . The Euro is at 12z is further east than at 0z and no one is fringed , at 0z KNYC recieves 6 inches of snow before a change to rain at 12z they get 12 . Look at the trend here and don`t take each model and agonize over it . So Pauly where are we accumulation wise in Monmouth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Important to note the 12Z euro to keep everyone sane was the western most model today. If you blend them all you get the ENTIRE area not having mixing issues as the LP closes off and also track NE from OBX-BM. Wait for the EURO ensembles as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 This seems to be a tough forecast. All of the news channels in the NYC NJ area still don't know. Some say over a foot some say rain Every storm forecast is a tough forecast. If anyone says all rain from this based on the newest guidance they shouldn't have a job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The 12Z EURO maybe west, but I highly doubt the EURO ENS will budge. The GGEM and UKMET are nearly over lapping around the track the 12Z NAM has and the GFS is still a bit east of the majority of the guidance. The computer models are slowly converging on the EURO ENS. Most likely, the 12Z EURO ENS will move a bit west. Although that's IMO. The Euro didn't come west today. It looks about what it was at 0z. It's stronger so there is even more of a front end snow thump but then some warming/dryslotting near the city/coast. I'll gladly take the 10" and then dryslot it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Non-weenie Euro snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 10, 2014 Author Share Posted February 10, 2014 Every reasonably accurate algorithm shows 10-16" for NYC and points west including all of NJ away from the shoreline. This is from the western-most solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Important to note the 12Z euro to keep everyone sane was the western most model today. If you blend them all you get the ENTIRE area not having mixing issues as the LP closes off and also track NE from OBX-BM. Wait for the EURO ensembles as well Look forward to you analysis on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane11 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I wouldn't be shocked at all if WSW's go up late tomorrow afternoon area-wide. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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