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The Big One - Observation


JoshM

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Looks like it's finally mostly snow here. I still hear a little sleet but the snow looks heavy now. I've notice some gusts of wind but it actually doesn't look too bad. Trees have a glaze of ice. 

 

Wish me luck walking to work. I work at a florist which happens to be right across my yard and friday is Vday and I'm the only one that can get there to fill all the orders. The parking lot looks like I'm going to bust my rear.

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27.5*F IMBY, DP 16* humidity 55%. Snow creeping up to KFAY on the radar, nothing falling yet. Some of what fell yesterday has melted, roads are clear, probably 3-4" left on grass/cars/surfaces etc. Another 2-4" by late afternoon. Pretty nutso. No chem test tomorrow, thank jesus. Them rxn rates are confusing ahaha.

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pretty much all snow :D Just a little sleet left. Huge flakes. It sure looked  bleak earlier in the night so I'm pretty happy right now. Now if I can hold on to for just a few hours...it's all I need to get some great accumulation. Especially since their is a sheet of ice on the ground thanks to my one inch or so of sleet and freezing rain

 

Excellent.... looks like the rates are winning out vs. the WAA right now. You can see how the snow line collapsed south on the GSP radar on the CC: 

 

codnexlab.NEXRAD.GSP.N0C.20140212.1321.0

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Moderate to at times heavy snow. A big contrast to last night around midnight when it was raining and 32.5. Truly the biggest flakes I can recall seeing. The wind is so high and the flakes are so huge,  I can track a single snowflake all the way across the yard..which isn't a small yard. Makes you wish it would last for days. Long ways to go to ever get to the forecasted amounts by ffc and local stations though.   Temp is 27

 

btw you can see the enhanced area of precip the gfs was showing for a while.

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Phil, with the risk of others thrashing me on here, your opinion of the rapid decrease in precip on the western side. If this low takes a more eastern track like Allan just said, that would obviously decrease the precip on the west side. 

 

It just seemed to start decreasing pretty rapidly so I think  most of us here didn't expect to see that so early in the game.

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From another message board.

 

Cornelia, GA

oh my gosh, where did you get that! lol - i know where that is and am up the street. its a raging snowstorm this morning.  just got back from a walk. pouring down snow, winds blowing into drift. 6" up against the garage door, streets, everything covered.

 

snow blowing off the roofs, trees bending big time from the weight on the lower limbs, upper parts clear cos of the howling winds. temp continues to drop down to 22

 

unbelieveable outside.  i have no idea how much - tried to measure for new snow. maybe 2 or 3 inches?  with the blowing drifting etc. i dont know how to measure this lmao

:snowman:

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Woke up to a very pleasant sight in Dunwoody of sleet on the ground and falling since it means ZR stopped. Ground is white. Looks like manageable (not too much) ice buildup left from before in trees, etc. 29.3 now, which is about lowest to this point. Hoping stays sleet as opposed to going back to ZR!

I love the sound it makes. :)

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 Estimate about .25" ice here, maybe a bit less. I have a pine in the back that has made it through 25 years of ice storms now shedding large branches.  Woke me up this am...its pretty close to the house and if enough of those branches go it wont be a worry, nothing left but the main trunk.....right now its a bit scary. Is it me or does the west side of this storm look like the precip is breaking up quite a bit on radar?

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 Estimate about .25" ice here, maybe a bit less. I have a pine in the back that has made it through 25 years of ice storms now shedding large branches.  Woke me up this am...its pretty close to the house and if enough of those branches go it wont be a worry, nothing left but the main trunk.....right now its a bit scary. Is it me or does the west side of this storm look like the precip is breaking up quite a bit on radar?

 

Its becoming evident looking at the Georgia Power outage map the last hour that all the recent outages have been south of ATL airport, it appears all the southern burbs are FZRA while the airport north is mostly PL.

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 Estimate about .25" ice here, maybe a bit less. I have a pine in the back that has made it through 25 years of ice storms now shedding large branches.  Woke me up this am...its pretty close to the house and if enough of those branches go it wont be a worry, nothing left but the main trunk.....right now its a bit scary. Is it me or does the west side of this storm look like the precip is breaking up quite a bit on radar?

It's supposed to redevelop mid-day. Apparently this is pretty much how the models had it.

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Woke up to a very pleasant sight in Dunwoody of sleet on the ground and falling since it means ZR stopped. Ground is white. Looks like manageable (not too much) ice buildup left from before in trees, etc. 29.3 now, which is about lowest to this point. Hoping stays sleet as opposed to going back to ZR!

Do you have any reason to believe we might go back to ZR for a little while? It's mentioned in my forecast so I'm curious to hear your opinion.

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Phil, with the risk of others thrashing me on here, your opinion of the rapid decrease in precip on the western side. If this low takes a more eastern track like Allan just said, that would obviously decrease the precip on the west side. 

 

It just seemed to start decreasing pretty rapidly so I think  most of us here didn't expect to see that so early in the game.

 

Don't sweat it yet... we are in the beginning stages of the transition period. Most of the snow/sleet/freezing rain that has occured thus far in GA/SC has been from the front end bands most associated with WAA and the resulting frontogenesis/isentropic lift. 

 

codnexlab.NEXRAD.FFC.N0Q.20140212.1341.0

 

There may be a brief lull in the action as the next round sets up, but round two will mainly be driven by the dynamics associated with the developing surface cyclone and the start of rapid amplification of the mid-level flow. As the 500 hPa really begins to amplify and cut off, it will create a trough of warm air aloft (TROWL) which will adect on the backside of the 500 hPa low and play a role in enhancing the deformation band (an axis of mainly stretching confluence about a specific axis).

 

Look at the precipitation redeveloping back over LA and MS... its coming but it will take a 3-6 hour period to redevelop and become as impressive looking as the WAA precip many folks are currently experiencing. 

 

southeast.rad.gif

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Don't sweat it yet... we are in the beginning stages of the transition period. Most of the snow/sleet/freezing rain that has occured thus far in GA/SC has been from the front end bands most associated with WAA and the resulting frontogenesis/isentropic lift. 

 

 

 

There may be a brief lull in the action as the next round sets up, but round two will mainly be driven by the dynamics associated with the developing surface cyclone and the start of rapid amplification of the mid-level flow. As the 500 hPa really begins to amplify and cut off, it will create a trough of warm air aloft (TROWL) which will adect on the backside of the 500 hPa low and play a role in enhancing the deformation band (an axis of mainly stretching confluence about a specific axis).

 

Look at the precipitation redeveloping back over LA and MS... its coming but it will take a 3-6 hour period to redevelop and become as impressive looking as the WAA precip many folks are currently experiencing. 

 

Thanks Phil, appreciate your opinions as always! 

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