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Burns' Big Banter Bonanza


NCsandhills

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My sense is things are trending better for the Triangle, especially the western parts of course, but even RDU proper. WPC supports this thinking with this statement:

.IT IS DIFFICULT TO MOVE OUR PREFERENCE
ENTIRELY TOWARD THE ECMWF...DESPITE ITS RELATIVE CONSISTENCY...AS
THERE IS NO PHYSICAL REASON TO EXPECT THAT THE SURFACE CYCLONE
WILL DEFINITELY SPIN UP AS EARLY AND AS SYMMETRICALLY AS IT DOES
IN THE ECMWF SOLUTION. 
MANY OTHER SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE
NAM/SREF/GFS/UKMET HAVE INDICATED A MORE ELONGATED LOW EARLY IN
THE PROCESS...STRETCHED OUT ALONG THE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL ZONE IN
THE SOUTHERN STATES.

ONE WAY TO RESOLVE THESE DIFFERENCES IS TO TAKE THE CHARACTER AND
INTENSITY OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND SHIFT IT JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH
AND EAST TOWARD MORE OF A CONSENSUS TRACK.

 

Also, I think the CAD wedge is not modeled particularly well and local experienced mets know this. The basic setup is classic for snow in central NC so I don't think we will be left out of this. Sure there will be some mixing, but I suspect a right fair amount of snow and sleet accumulation, something on the order of 3-6 inches basically east to west across the area.

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It's crazy how reluctant the local TV mets have been to put maps with numbers on them to this point, even the day before the storm.  You've gotta think they have to commit by the evening news time and go with something...

 

I think it's a process with on the air mets.  My apologies to all of them for the following as I have no real idea what goes on.

 

5 days out....Look at the fantasy storm

 

4 days out....Unbelievable it's still there. Like it could really happen.

 

3 days out....OK I have to say something but nothing like what the model says has ever happened here before.  Better lean strongly toward climatology.

 

2 days out....Damn!  Now what? How can I even say that on the air.  It will cause a panic and if it fizzles out like usual I'll be a laughing stock.

 

1 day out....Damn, damn, damn, damn, damn.

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Great list.

I think it's a process with on the air mets.  My apologies to all of them for the following as I have no real idea what goes on.

 

5 days out....Look at the fantasy storm

 

4 days out....Unbelievable it's still there. Like it could really happen.

 

3 days out....OK I have to say something but nothing like what the model says has ever happened here before.  Better lean strongly toward climatology.

 

2 days out....Damn!  Now what? How can I even say that on the air.  It will cause a panic and if it fizzles out like usual I'll be a laughing stock.

 

1 day out....Damn, damn, damn, damn, damn.

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The whole crippling ice storm in NC seems to be hedging back and forth based on which model you believe. Latest Euro says not as bad with smaller transition zone. Others not so much. They'll be ice alright. Right now not sure how much, how bad, and how widespread is really the big question.

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I seriously doubt the euro is right with the slp over/near Hatteras.

 

There is clear obvious damming and a stout lee side trough. 

Looking at the wind streamlines NE CAD winds have made it into western GA with northerly winds over east TN,AL and western GA.

 

Also there is a developing LP trough east of Brownsville, TX with an enlongated trough offshore of Wilmington. 

 

By all said and done.. I say the SLP stays offshore of Hatteras completely but thats my 2c. 

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I seriously doubt the euro is right with the slp over/near Hatteras.

 

There is clear obvious damming and a stout lee side trough. 

Looking at the wind streamlines NE CAD winds have made it into western GA with northerly winds over east TN,AL and western GA.

 

Also there is a developing LP trough east of Brownsville, TX with an enlongated trough offshore of Wilmington. 

 

By all said and done.. I say the SLP stays offshore of Hatteras completely but thats my 2c. 

I'm with you brother....or at least hoping your right. It's nerve racking being "on the line".

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