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Central PA & The Fringes - February 2014 III


PennMan

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GFS flips a big middle finger to everyone.

 

As I recall, it was way further south than the rest of the guidance with last Monday's "surprise" several inches. It had the precip shield making it only to mid VA just 72 hours before the storm. Let's see if the GFS pulls NW in the coming runs.

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Just measured 2.5" here. Still some light snow around though, so perhaps...another quarter inch? That gives us 12" exactly since last Monday. I wish some of the storms we had didn't end in the morning while I was at work. I didn't measure those since compaction and melt would have skewed the numbers. As such, I don't have a true total for the season to date.

 

Rough estimate would be about 25" to 30" maybe.

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Finished with 1.7" snow which produced .12" of liquid for a ratio of 14:1. I am at 38" so far this season. The only thing missing from this winter is a KU event. Still time for that I suppose. Thursday?

 

Sure, if this "forecaster with 18 years experience" is to be believed. (the link, not Voyager haha) 

 

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Posting this for posterity from WPC:

 

 

AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST WED

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: NON-GFS COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

A BROAD AND SLOWLY AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM SHOULD GUARANTEE A
STRONGER SYSTEM WITH TIME, BUT ITS PROGRESSION HINTS THAT A FASTER
PROGRESSION WITH THIS DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS MORE LIKELY. THIS
HAS BEEN BORNE OUT IN THE ECMWF TRENDS SINCE ITS 00Z RUN, THOUGH
IT HAS ALSO TRENDED MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED ALOFT. THE 12Z GFS
SHOWS A MENAGERIE OF CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK BULL'S EYES
FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA EASTWARD FROM LATE TUESDAY ONWARD, WHICH
CAN EXPLAIN ITS QUICKER PROGRESSION. WITH CONVERGING GUIDANCE
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE, BELIEVE A NON-GFS COMPROMISE IS THE BEST
COURSE OF ACTION FOR THE TIME BEING, PREFERRED WITH AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING THE SYSTEM'S PROGRESSIVE NATURE.

 
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NAM'd.  Period of sleet for LSV, but a healthy dose of snow for all.  Looks like the NAM is ther westernmost solution, GFS is easternmost.  UKMET / EURO / Canadian in the middle.  The takeaways from today's runs are:

 

  1. Storm is still there.
  2. Decent upside potential.
  3. Watch out for the Great Lakes low...experience has told me it could bugger the LSV counties.
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I'd estimate about two inches of fresh powder on top of another three inches of solid ice hell. 

 

Not fun to walk in/on after having surgery on a herniated disk. 

I had my neurostimulator replaced two weeks ago. I am not allowed to even look at the snow....swmbo is very strict.

 

On to the weather weinies, local group says that the next storm could be as bad as 93. I wanted to ask where they got their met degree. 

 

Of course, they have 8000 followers...

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NAM'd.  Period of sleet for LSV, but a healthy dose of snow for all.  Looks like the NAM is ther westernmost solution, GFS is easternmost.  UKMET / EURO / Canadian in the middle.  The takeaways from today's runs are:

 

  1. Storm is still there.
  2. Decent upside potential.
  3. Watch out for the Great Lakes low...experience has told me it could bugger the LSV counties.

 

 

This to me is the biggest difference between the NAM depiction (LR NAM should still be taken with a grain of salt past 48 hours) and other models seems to be this feature. The NAM is very underwhelming on the GL low. It's basically a non-factor on the 0z run and totally crushes the whole area. I am not worried about upper level temperatures and surface temps until probably Tuesday afternoon on. At this point, H5 is beyond fantastic on the NAM. This solution would be huge run for basically everyone on the forum. Areas of most concern imo for mixing issues will be along the I95 corridor. Most Miller A systems bring a partial mix to those areas around the interstate. Anyone say 10-20 miles W/NW of 95 would be all snow and a lot of it verbatim on the NAM run. This will be a crazy storm to track if it comes to fruition. Good times

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Once again the GFS has the GL low affect the run. Until that feature is completely gone from the GFS or at least held further back, nothing will be set in stone. Very interesting runs coming next 24-36 hours. I'd say by tomorrow night with sampling of all major players on the field we'll start to get a better idea

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