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DDweatherman

Monday Mauler or Monday Bawler? part II

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Tricky.. maybe a little colder at 850 initially but then a little warmer at peak.  Sfc is about the same or marginally better than last night.  N&W ftw.

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At 48hrs the 850 0C line is from IAD to just S of BWI, probably not quite to DCA based on low res maps. Not sure how that compares to 0Z run but based on ewall is a shift south from yesterday's 12Z...pretty much in line with all other guidance.

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Tricky.. maybe a little colder at 850 initially but then a little warmer at peak.  Sfc is about the same or marginally better than last night.  N&W ftw.

 

so at say 49-50 hours...+SN and 33-34?....we can accumulate in that...

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At 48hrs the 850 0C line is from IAD to just S of BWI, probably not quite to DCA based on low res maps. Not sure how that compares to 0Z run but based on ewall is a shift south from yesterday's 12Z...pretty much in line with all other guidance.

not bad...not bad.

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72?...who cares  that is like days after the storm ends

at 48 hrs we're rain as the 850  temp is above freezing as is the surface.  By 54 hours we're 1C but the surface still is above freezing and the 850 temp still is above freezing at my house.  I don't like the odds for you and me.  Heck, I bet at 18Z DCA is still 34 or so despite the raw model output.

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Nice run. When I asked Ian if 2-3" with heavy snow for a period would be ok because I was thinking it was reasonable with obvious risks. Dig seeing the euro show at least that

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good luck making a forecast with this one...

I've supplied matt with a nice long quote about the difficulties with the forecast.  Right now I think a conservative approach for DC is best but think somewhere north and west might really get plastered with a band. 

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good luck making a forecast with this one...

Precip heavy for a time possibly snow or rain maybe accumulating somewhere.

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at 48 hrs we're rain as the 850  temp is above freezing as is the surface.  By 54 hours we're 1C but the surface still is above freezing and the 850 temp still is above freezing at my house.  I don't like the odds for you and me.  Heck, I bet at 18Z DCA is still 34 or so despite the raw model output.

 

yes..i wonder what precip type for DC is at say 49-50 hours..Hard to beleve it is driving rain at that point..51 hours on GFS is snow and 48 on the NAM is snow...for DCA...maybe not your house.....

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We got all kinds of conflicting signals

 

Yeah. I'm not sure things will be resolved until the snow actually starts falling. You guys have danced this dance before and gotten burned more often than not. 

 

so at say 49-50 hours...+SN and 33-34?....we can accumulate in that...

 

If it's heavy sure we can accumulate in that. How confident are we that it'll be ripping though? Given the bumps up in qpf I guess we can count on this a bit more than the temps at the moment. 

 

at 48 hrs we're rain as the 850  temp is above freezing as is the surface.  By 54 hours we're 1C but the surface still is above freezing and the 850 temp still is above freezing at my house.  I don't like the odds for you and me.  Heck, I bet at 18Z DCA is still 34 or so despite the raw model output.

 

I refuse to let myself get emotionally invested in this one. There is so much potential here but so many conflicting pieces. We've been on the good side of things so far this winter so hey maybe we catch a break again. 

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Precip heavy for a time possibly snow or rain maybe accumulating somewhere.

I do think after reading people's interpretation of the euro that I'm living in an alternate world.  They see hope and i see well not quite dispair but don't like what I see for mby.

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does anybody remember the forecast column for 2/25/07?...of course we had a block then....I'm pretty sure every piece of guidance had a warm nose above 850 and a sfc above freezing

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I do think after reading people's interpretation of the euro that I'm living in an alternate world.  They see hope and i see well not quite dispair but don't like what I see for mby.

I'm definitely not too psyched IMBY.  I agree with you.. fall line area west/north might get a decent wet paste job.  Here... I dunno. It's gonna take some luck to get more than some slushy mess after rain and then hoping for a plastering during the day.

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Yeah. I'm not sure things will be resolved until the snow actually starts falling. You guys have danced this dance before and gotten burned more often than not. 

 

 

If it's heavy sure we can accumulate in that. How confident are we that it'll be ripping though? Given the bumps up in qpf I guess we can count on this a bit more than the temps at the moment. 

 

 

I refuse to let myself get emotionally invested in this one. There is so much potential here but so many conflicting pieces. We've been on the good side of things so far this winter so hey maybe we catch a break again. 

 

 

0.65" in 6 hours is ripping

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does anybody remember the forecast column for 2/25/07?...of course we had a block then....I'm pretty sure every piece of guidance had a warm nose above 850 and a sfc above freezing

lol,  i'm getting where I'm lucky to remember where I left the toothbrush. 

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does anybody remember the forecast column for 2/25/07?...of course we had a block then....I'm pretty sure every piece of guidance had a warm nose above 850 and a sfc above freezing

Doesn't it look more like 1/26/10? Or was it 1/26/11 re the surface and marginal column?

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I would almost rather be able to let this storm go than straddle the line, as I am currently doing. I hate nothing more than a slushy layer in the grass and nothing on the road.

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Euro 3 hr snowfall maps work best for this type of setup. 2" + in a 3 hr period should be adequet for an advisory and 3 a warning.

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I'm definitely not too psyched IMBY.  I agree with you.. fall line area west/north might get a decent wet paste job.  Here... I dunno. It's gonna take some luck to get more than some slushy mess after rain and then hoping for a plastering during the day.

I do say in the quote that things won't be resolved until with see the white of the flakes and the temperatures while it is falling. 

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Does anybody see Euro skew-ts?  I think the bigger issue is the warm nose around 800mb that GFS is advertising.  12z looked like pingers or PLRA for folks DC and S/E. 

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Nice run. When I asked Ian if 2-3" with heavy snow for a period would be ok because I was thinking it was reasonable with obvious risks. Dig seeing the euro show at least that

 

My usual optimism is tempered but you're right, the models haven't written us DC folk off yet. We're straddling the line but incremental trends keep DC in the game and look good for areas NW. This is fun.

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I do say in the quote that things won't be resolved until with see the white of the flakes and the temperatures while it is falling. 

I think we're in a better spot in some ways than we were just given we're close to the max zone in the cold sector but there is a lot to be resolved. Even in a best case it might be drippy globby snow falling in wet clumps out of the trees etc here. But I guess that's DC for ya.

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Wundermap 2m temps has 0C line going through dca between hrs 51 and 54 with some snow on the ground from 51 on.

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My usual optimism is tempered but you're right, the models haven't written us DC folk off yet. We're straddling the line but incremental trends keep DC in the game and look good for areas NW. This is fun.

If the raw temps were colder I'd be a little more enthused. They are too cold almost all the time and if that's the case here... well, congrats whoever lives on a hill north and west.

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