A look ahead at the Feb 3-10 Period - Technical Discussion (Updated to Feb 15th)

[SnowMan]

Biblical East Coast System, Which i think is going a little overboard at this point, That's actually by passing an HECS

Thanks. Yeah I doubt we see anything like that let alone historic.

[dryslot]

Thanks. Yeah I doubt we see anything like that let alone historic.

 

I could see at this point an SECS possibly, But that's as far as i would go being over 180hrs+ out in time

[Heisy]

Boom

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Lovely to look at. Let's see her as she gets older

[bobbutts]

gfs has becs, nyc thread suggests we may only see the tops of the telephone poles should that verify..........its nice to dream:)

First time I've posted a clown map to downplay a storm

[Ginx snewx]

First time I've posted a clown map to downplay a storm

I think they are looking at Sat though

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

next weekend is a big system. closed off mid and upper levels barrels east, as long as the confluence north stays strong and forces sfc redevelopment underneath us, this one has big time potential.

[H2Otown_WX]

next weekend is a big system. closed off mid and upper levels barrels east, as long as the confluence north stays strong and forces sfc redevelopment underneath us, this one has big time potential.

00z GFS looks like a flat out Miller A. Loaded with Gulf moisture.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think a lot can go wrong with that system....not only a lack of teleconnector support, but Miller A's usually phuck the duck up this way.

[moneypitmike]

I have no idea which thread to post this, but the Sunday night-Tuesday storm on the 06z GFS is a beaut!

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Lol at that storm for early next week on the gfs. Look out

[ORH_wxman]

The 00z Feb 3rd guidance was beginning to hone in on a narrowed set of goal posts for the Feb 5th winter storm in New England. (see other thread for details)

 

The 00z Feb 3rd guidance also continued to show a major threat for a winter system on Feb 9. Unlike the Feb 5th system at 6 days out, the spread was a bit larger. A tight enough cluster at 120 hours suggests that there is high confidence of a larger scale storm system in the southern US over to the southeast. The uncertainty increasing dramatically after that point is an indication that some members bring the storm more eastward out to sea, while others are significantly amplified enough as to give New England a change to rain and of course all the in-between solutions.

 

The ECMWF ensemble mean tracked the storm over the benchmark. But again, that comes with considerable spread. The main players on the field discussed yesterday morning are still on the field with no major changes. The NAO ridging over Greenland became a shade stronger which may help anchor the PV in SE Canada leading up to the storm. There are likely to be at least a few additional changes as we get closer.

 

 

 

Finally, toward the end of the period, the guidance was still uncertain how the pattern evolves beyond that. It appears there is increasing chance that a quick arctic shot could occur around 2/10-11.

[Damage In Tolland]

The 00z Feb 3rd guidance was beginning to hone in on a narrowed set of goal posts for the Feb 5th winter storm in New England. (see other thread for details)

 

The 00z Feb 3rd guidance also continued to show a major threat for a winter system on Feb 9. Unlike the Feb 5th system at 6 days out, the spread was a bit larger. A tight enough cluster at 120 hours suggests that there is high confidence of a larger scale storm system in the southern US over to the southeast. The uncertainty increasing dramatically after that point is an indication that some members bring the storm more eastward out to sea, while others are significantly amplified enough as to give New England a change to rain and of course all the in-between solutions.

 

The ECMWF ensemble mean tracked the storm over the benchmark. But again, that comes with considerable spread. The main players on the field discussed yesterday morning are still on the field with no major changes. The NAO ridging over Greenland became a shade stronger which may help anchor the PV in SE Canada leading up to the storm. There are likely to be at least a few additional changes as we get closer.

 

 

 

Finally, toward the end of the period, the guidance was still uncertain how the pattern evolves beyond that. It appears there is increasing chance that a quick arctic shot could occur around 2/10-11.

Still a shot at -NAO and weakening trend on trough in GOA?

[dryslot]

I think a lot can go wrong with that system....not only a lack of teleconnector support, but Miller A's usually phuck the duck up this way.

 

I hate them, Either they bail ENE at the BM or they are an occluded POS as they close off to far south

[dryslot]

The 00z Feb 3rd guidance was beginning to hone in on a narrowed set of goal posts for the Feb 5th winter storm in New England. (see other thread for details)

 

The 00z Feb 3rd guidance also continued to show a major threat for a winter system on Feb 9. Unlike the Feb 5th system at 6 days out, the spread was a bit larger. A tight enough cluster at 120 hours suggests that there is high confidence of a larger scale storm system in the southern US over to the southeast. The uncertainty increasing dramatically after that point is an indication that some members bring the storm more eastward out to sea, while others are significantly amplified enough as to give New England a change to rain and of course all the in-between solutions.

 

The ECMWF ensemble mean tracked the storm over the benchmark. But again, that comes with considerable spread. The main players on the field discussed yesterday morning are still on the field with no major changes. The NAO ridging over Greenland became a shade stronger which may help anchor the PV in SE Canada leading up to the storm. There are likely to be at least a few additional changes as we get closer.

 

 

 

Finally, toward the end of the period, the guidance was still uncertain how the pattern evolves beyond that. It appears there is increasing chance that a quick arctic shot could occur around 2/10-11.

 

Great analysis Will although these types of systems don't typically bode well up here

[ORH_wxman]

I hate them, Either they bail ENE at the BM or they are an occluded POS as they close off to far south

 

 

There is no guarantee this is a true Miller A...it might be, but the primary could also try and track up the TN/OH Valleys and then redevelop everything off the Delmarva and move NE. There is too much spread right now to really favor a particular solution.

[dryslot]

There is no guarantee this is a true Miller A...it might be, but the primary could also try and track up the TN/OH Valleys and then redevelop everything off the Delmarva and move NE. There is too much spread right now to really favor a particular solution.

 

I would rather see it a Miller B, But this far out it still all speculative, It would depend on how far south this closes off, It certainly looks like a slow mover with some blocking upstream, Just a matter of if where and when that happens,  After weds event should start to see how this one starts to align

[mahk_webstah]

Jeff I share your concerns.  I would feel GREAT in SNE about the potential, not so sure up our way.  HPC maps the morning reflect my concerns.  Big storm nails Mid Atlantic to SNE and then slides ENE.  We get a few inches.  On the other hand, it is 7 days out which is usually a nice time to be a bit north of the best snow.  The strength of the confluence to our north will probably determine it.  But I think storms seem to want to come north given no overwhelming block in Greenland or strong PV in SE Canada.  Could be quite the epic week in the NYC environs.  MIght be an epic stretch for us too....

 

Epicosity or Mediocrity?

[ineedsnow]

12z gfs 

[ineedsnow]

the gfs buries us this weekend wow

[HoarfrostHubb]

Looks a bit S of where I would prefer it... but it still shows a nice system

[dryslot]

Looks awesome but a lot of time left

[ineedsnow]

weenie snow map threw 180 on the gfs  we can only hope   

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020312&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=180

[leesun]

the gfs buries us this weekend wow

Lock it in. 

[CoastalWx]

Do not be concerned with low placement. Just be happy there is a low at this stage.

[CoastalWx]

BTW, if you have H5 handy, loop hr 84-144. Notice the dance that the little block by Hudson Bay does, along with the PV near 50N/50W. That is awesome and key to low pressure development and placement.

[dryslot]

BTW, if you have H5 handy, loop hr 84-144. Notice the dance that the little block by Hudson Bay does, along with the PV near 50N/50W. That is awesome and key to low pressure development and placement.

 

It pin wheels to the NE

[CoastalWx]

It pin wheels to the NE

But see how that ridge pushes south as the main low moves east? This whole feature helps keep the low from pushing into NY state.

[dryslot]

But see how that ridge pushes south as the main low moves east? This whole feature helps keep the low from pushing into NY state.

 

Yeah, It pushes the H5 low swinging thru the lower ohio valley off to the NE under SNE

[Baroclinic Zone]

12z GFS has our biggest snowstorm of the season for the 10th/11th.  Nice 984mb low over the BM.