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mreaves

NNE Winter Part 3

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Yeah they got low/mid 40s up there. They downslope there with SSW flow.

 

Sort of a warm day across the northern side of New England... I see 42F for a high at Pittsburg Village.  That seems to happen a lot in the spring though... these low humidity days can sort of have the warmth go "over the top" with the CAD areas holding cooler down to ORH.

 

Cracking dry airmass though...hit 12% RH today with dews below zero and temps near 40F.  You can tell its dry because the snow isn't melting much at all...just like the usual around roadways and stuff.

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>60F diurnal range is just nuts, without a major frontal passage involved - even crazy with a front.  Greatest no-front range I've had was 56F, with 86/30 on 5/21/77.  Next day was more memorable, however, as CAR matched its all time hottest with 96 - while I was insulating my attic :(   - and because that topped Phoenix by one degree, was touted as the hottest reporting station in the US for that day.  Still one of my favorite "man bites dog" stories, in wx or any subject.

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The storm for the 13th is slipping away from us in the models. No surprise there. The overnight Euro says congrats SNE.

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The storm for the 13th is slipping away from us in the models. No surprise there. The overnight Euro says congrats SNE.

Winter cancel. :(

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Winter cancel. :(

 

 

Hahah and the 12z says "Oh we back!" ;) Anyway there is no consistency at this point after what started to look like a bit of trend. It is still on the table :)

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Guys, nice Euro run.  Wish the GFS was locked it too.  Still very   cautious on this one..  Got up to 44.7F at 11am before the colder air came in. High this year has been 48F.  Last 50F was November 17th.

 

The deer in my fields are starving.  I threw  1/2 a bushel of apples out yesterday and had 18 deer fighting for them.  They must have used up so many calories keeping warm.  We have had constant snowcover since November and I have mixed feelings about another big storm this week.  With this pattern we will have snowcover through the month if we get another foot or more. Guess I will keep feeding them.

 

Turning clocks tonight means later model watching for this next event.   Guess that's all my afternoon musings.

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Mild day today but not quite like other spots.  Topped out at 38 and easing back now.

 

I gather the 12Z Euro was a good hit....  It's not the best timing for me as I'm slogging along trying to get my pruning jobs done--and behind schedule to boot.  It's difficult walking around out there now as it is, let alone potentially a fresh foot+.  My next round of work on this front is this coming Thursday--Sunday.  We'll see.

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A couple light events look like they may swing through with some minor accumulations early next week...

 

 

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST SATURDAY...AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM JET WITH LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WL RESULT IN SEVERAL LIGHT SNOW EVENTS WITH
TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MONDAY. SFC HIGH
PRES OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY WL PRODUCE MAINLY CLR SKIES WITH COOL
TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BLW NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN -14C AND -16C...WITH SUN AND SOME MIXING
MAY RESULT IN A FEW READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S ACRS THE WARMER
VALLEYS/UHI AREAS. 1000 TO 500MB RH QUICKLY SPREADS FROM WEST TO
EAST ACRS OUR CWA AFT 18Z SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEAK CLIPPER
SYSTEM. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH INCREASED LIFT FROM MID LVL
WAA AND SOME Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FROM SEVERAL EMBEDDED 5H VORTS
WL PRODUCE A LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE
RH PROFILES THRU THE SNOW GROWTH REGION AND SOME WEAK UVVS BTWN
875MB AND 700MB...RESULTING IN GOOD FLAKE SIZE AND 25 TO 1 OR SO
SNOW RATIOS. WL MENTION LIKELY/CAT POPS WITH A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
VALLEYS AND 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE MTNS BY MID MORNING ON MONDAY.

FIRST SYSTEM QUICKLY SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA BY 15Z MONDAY...AS NEXT
WAA LIFT AND WEAK SFC LOW PRES ARRIVES BY 00Z TUES. THIS WL
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BTWN SFC AND 850MB
AT 30 TO 40 KNOTS WL RESULT IN SOME SHADOWING ACRS THE CPV AND
TEMPS WARMING OVERNIGHT. THE SLIGHTLY WARMER THERMAL PROFILES WL
RESULT IN LOWER SNOW RATIOS AROUND 15 TO 1...BUT GIVEN SLIGHTLY
BETTER RH PROFILES AND LIFT...ANOTHER DUSTING TO 1 INCHES IS
LIKELY VALLEYS TO 1 TO 4 INCHES IN THE MTNS.
SNOWFALL/QPF WL BE
FINE TUNED AS EVENTS GET CLOSER AND WE CAN USE HI RESOLUTION
MODELS TO BETTER RESOLVE TRRN IMPACTS. TEMPS WL CONT TO BE BLW
NORMAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS/20S
OVERNIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO MID 30S ON MONDAY. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM OVERNIGHT ON MONDAY NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEVELOPING PRECIP. EXPECTING LOWS TO RANGE
FROM THE L20S NEK/EASTERN VT TO L30S CPV.

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Felt very warm on the ice before the clouds came about noon (and some wind later) - between full March sun, reflection off the snow-covered surface, and almost no wind, drilling thru 27" (gained 2" since 2 wk ago) was quite sweaty work.

 

GYX feeling enough confidence in Wed-Thurs to have 60% pop in their afternoon update.

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Felt very warm on the ice before the clouds came about noon (and some wind later) - between full March sun, reflection off the snow-covered surface, and almost no wind, drilling thru 27" (gained 2" since 2 wk ago) was quite sweaty work.

 

GYX feeling enough confidence in Wed-Thurs to have 60% pop in their afternoon update.

Just saw that. I'm game for one more or two more events, hopefully a decent (>6") size one, then I'm ready for spring.

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Was up in BTV today playing indoor golf on a simulator. I expected it be warmer when I got out but it was pretty raw. There were actually a few snow grains spitting earlier in the afternoon.

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Felt very warm on the ice before the clouds came about noon (and some wind later) - between full March sun, reflection off the snow-covered surface, and almost no wind, drilling thru 27" (gained 2" since 2 wk ago) was quite sweaty work.

 

GYX feeling enough confidence in Wed-Thurs to have 60% pop in their afternoon update.

 

As did BTV, just before the 18z GFS fringed us again...lol.  I wonder if this will be one of those systems that waffles back and forth on the models until 24-36 hours out.

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I was surprised to see the 18Z cut down in QPF for NNE,  Do you guys think it will continue to ramp up and come a bit more NW?  Good to see the Euro give us so much QPF.  Hopefully the GFS will come around.  Thoughts?

 

Not a surprise, really.  I think the models are going to be shuffling this thing around for a few more runs at least.  If we're still fringed on the guidance by this time Monday, I'll start to be concerned.  It's just still so far away in model time.  Still can't put stock in any one run of any of the models.

 

I do have more concerns about suppression than p-type issues at this point, though.

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A couple light events look like they may swing through with some minor accumulations early next week...

 

attachicon.gifMansfield_Forecast.jpg

 

 

For the first time in my life I booked a ski vaca week four months in advance - normally I do shorter trips on very short notice, chasing powder - and that week will be at MRG starting Monday. Between what I'm reading here and the NWS forecasts, I am not displeased with my timing. Seems there's a chance of at least a little snow pretty much every day including now the talk of a potential follow-up system at the end of next weekend.

 

Put me down as having zero interest in spring getting here anytime soon. 

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Well the overnight model runs were quite favorable for NNE.  ECM hammers a foot or more from the Adirondacks through the central/northern Greens, Whites, and Maine.  That is by far the highest/most robust model...but even GFS and GGEM looked like 4-8" or so. 

 

Here's BTV's take...

 

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
MOVING IT JUST NORTH OF THE BENCHMARK (40N 70W) BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THUS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS ALSO HIGHER. THIS LOW TRACK WILL
BRING A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK
WEDNESDAY...WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. HAVE RAISED POPS
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. ALL THE MODELS...ECMWF...GFS AND CANADIAN GLOBAL
MODEL ALL SHOW THE TRACK OF THE LOW JUST NORTH OF THE BENCHMARK ON
WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS THE HIGHEST QPF WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING LESS QPF.
THUS...AT THIS TIME IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO FORECAST HOW MUCH
SNOW WILL FALL...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT AND PLOWABLE
SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF LATER
MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS POTENTIAL...THEN A WINTER STORM
WATCH MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED. MODELS SHOW SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

 

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It is too early still to lock on to exact QPF just yet. BTV's discussion highlights it well. I like where we are sitting for now, but 4 days to go.

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What are the chances of a positive surprise in the greater MRG metropolitan area from these shortwaves tonight into Tuesday? I'm a noob but as I reread about Froude numbers in the Greens my impression is we don't have the synoptic setup for classic "upslope" (not following on heels of departing low), But the BTV AFD mentions favored spots in the first event will be higher terrain of western slopes and in the second, higher terrain NW facing, which sounds like what can happen in upslope, and I know from happy experience that upslope sometimes can produce real nice sleeper snowfall at the ski areas.

 

Whatever it's called ... I don't need to be greedy but as the base is on the firm side at this point, I think even an extra couple/few inches could make a difference, especially if the ratio isn't real high (yesterday BTV AFD yesterday mentioned 25:1 from the first sw and 15:1 from the second).  

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BTV's snow map for tonight's snow showers... I personally like tomorrow night into Tuesday's mini-event which looks more like 2-4". 

 

1146597_621887337883171_53181394_n.png

 

 

Here's our zone forecast:

 

Tonight: Partly cloudy with a chance of snow showers until midnight...then cloudy with snow likely after midnight. Total snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Lows around 15. Light and variable winds. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Monday: Cloudy. A chance of snow showers...mainly in the morning. Highs in the lower 30s. Light and variable winds. Chance of snow 50 percent.

Monday Night: Occasional snow showers. Total snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Lows in the lower 20s. Light and variable winds. Chance of snow 80 percent.

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It's really only the upslope zones to be honest...it includes the Spine north of Sugarbush and also over into NNH upslope spots. Places like myself, J.Spin, the ski areas (Bolton/Stowe/Smuggs/Jay), First CT Lake up in NH, etc...places like that.

 

The upslope has been missing...we have yet to have really any advisory or warning criteria upslope events when we usually see several. I'm more fascinated in how the pattern prevented it because we had the storms moving through the area, and it's very rare to get 5 rain events without one producing a large backside upslope storm.

 

I’m responding to this here since it’s presumably off topic in the storm thread, but there’s no doubt about being low on season snowfall here along the spine of the Northern Greens – it’s well below average.  We’re now over 36 inches behind average pace according to my records, and sitting below 1 standard deviation from the mean.  In fact, I hadn’t been paying too much attention since we’ve reached that point in the season where the base for skiing is in place and the snowfall is less critical, but while I wasn’t looking, we fell to dead last in my records for snowfall to this point in the season as of earlier this week.  As of Monday (March 3rd), the 2006-2007 season had moved past this one in terms of snowfall.  I agree with PF that a lot of that deficit is likely upslope snowfall, but we missed out on some frozen synoptic moisture as well at some point, because snowpack is also well below average.  The current snowpack here at the stake is 11.5”, while according to my records, the average is right around 20”.  With respect to the season snowfall, we’re certainly within striking distance of the next four seasons in my records, so it’s certainly possible to pull out of last place.  If we do pick up some decent snow with the upcoming pattern, it would fit in with the fact that climatologically, this area is due.

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I had to go down to Boston today and did a quick round trip.  I have a solid 12-15" of snow on the ground, even in sunny locations.  Probably much more in the woods.  I started to notice more and more bare ground on south facing slopes by the time I reached the Concord area.  Just north of Boston the median strips with full sun were mostly bare, I would guess 75% snow cover just north of Boston.  Now that we have almost late September sun it really does its job, even in below freezing temperatures.

 

Also of note they were doing car races on the ice on Newfound Lake as i left this morning.  Pretty rare to see cars still on the ice as of March 9th.  

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I had to go down to Boston today and did a quick round trip.  I have a solid 12-15" of snow on the ground, even in sunny locations.  Probably much more in the woods.  I started to notice more and more bare ground on south facing slopes by the time I reached the Concord area.  Just north of Boston the median strips with full sun were mostly bare, I would guess 75% snow cover just north of Boston.  Now that we have almost late September sun it really does its job, even in below freezing temperatures.

 

Also of note they were doing car races on the ice on Newfound Lake as i left this morning.  Pretty rare to see cars still on the ice as of March 9th.

You can't judge snow cover by the highway though. CON and here still have 20".

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You can't judge snow cover by the highway though. CON and here still have 20".

I didn't think snowpack was much different in protected areas near CON compared to Winni. Maybe 3-5"? If that. And when I really scoped it out, not a big difference from Conway to Tilton.

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I didn't think snowpack was much different in protected areas near CON compared to Winni. Maybe 3-5"? If that. And when I really scoped it out, not a big difference from Conway to Tilton.

 

 

Megan and I were out hiking in Natick yesterday and it was literally 99% snow cover...mostly in the 6-10" range. Even in wide open fields...maybe down to 4-6" in spots in open fields.

 

But once you get near highways and busy streets, some open areas are bare..esp south facing. The lower albedo dirty snow really gets blasted this time of year quickly. In the audubon sanctuary, the snow is much cleaner and the whole landscape just looks much more wintry than busy streets.

 

 

This time of year seems to accent that more than mid winter.

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I didn't think snowpack was much different in protected areas near CON compared to Winni. Maybe 3-5"? If that. And when I really scoped it out, not a big difference from Conway to Tilton.

Yeah...mostly 18-24" through those CAD areas. Neither of these Northfield obs are mine. Guess we have a few weenies in town.

:COCORAHS PRECIPITATION REPORTS IN NEW HAMPSHIRE

:

: SNOW SNOW WATER

: PCPN FALL DEPTH EQUIV

:

NHCR26 : CENTER SANDWICH 4.9 E * : 0.00 / 0.0 / 27.5 / MM

NHCS10 : RANDOLPH 1.4 NE * : 0.00 / 0.0 / 26.0 / MM

NHCR01 : EAST WAKEFIELD 1.2 SE * : 0.00 / 0.0 / 25.0 / 5.85

NHMR04 : BOW 1.6 NW * : 0.00 / 0.0 / 25.0 / MM

NHCR27 : TAMWORTH 0.4 NNW * : 0.00 / 0.0 / 23.0 / MM

NHMR45 : NORTHFIELD 2.8 E * : 0.00 / 0.0 / 22.9 / MM

NHCR11 : NORTH CONWAY 1.4 SSW * : 0.00 / 0.0 / 21.0 / MM

NHCR09 : MADISON 1.7 SE * : 0.00 / 0.0 / 20.5 / MM

NHBK01 : TILTON NORTHFIELD 3.3 NE * : 0.00 / 0.0 / 20.0 / MM

NHMR41 : NEWBURY 1.6 NW * : 0.00 / 0.0 / 20.0 / MM

NHMR06 : DANBURY 2.2 ESE * : 0.00 / 0.0 / 19.0 / MM

NHBK09 : MEREDITH 2.9 SSW * : 0.00 / 0.0 / 18.0 / MM

NHHL48 : GREENVILLE 1.1 ENE * : 0.00 / 0.0 / 17.5 / MM

NHBK02 : BELMONT 1.7 SW * : 0.00 / 0.0 / 16.5 / MM

NHMR33 : BOSCAWEN 2.2 SE * : 0.00 / 0.0 / 16.5 / MM

NHGR32 : DORCHESTER 3.8 NNE * : 0.00 / 0.0 / 16.0 / MM

NHMR25 : CHICHESTER 2.7 SSW * : 0.00 / 0.0 / 13.0 / MM

NHHL49 : MONT VERNON 1.3 SSW * : 0.00 / 0.0 / 12.0 / MM

NHMR16 : NEWBURY 4.0 SE * : 0.00 / 0.0 / 12.0 / MM

NHMR26 : PITTSFIELD 0.2 SSW * : 0.00 / 0.0 / 12.0 / MM

NHCS07 : LANCASTER 0.5 N * : 0.00 / 0.0 / 10.0 / MM

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