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mreaves

NNE Winter Part 3

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lol @ how bad the NAM was leading up to this.

I'm looking for my 12-18" of snow, haha. Shame how un-usable that model is in synoptic events. It an be right but with no confidence in it, you almost have to toss it every time.

That snow on the upper elevations last night was the wettest stuff I've seen in a very long time. You can tell by that pic I posted where the evergreens have like 1-2" on the and the branches are pointed straight to the ground. You make a snowball and can squeeze the water out of it. 3.5" snow on 1" of QPF? :lol:

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I'm looking for my 12-18" of snow, haha. Shame how un-usable that model is in synoptic events. It an be right but with no confidence in it, you almost have to toss it every time.

That snow on the upper elevations last night was the wettest stuff I've seen in a very long time. You can tell by that pic I posted where the evergreens have like 1-2" on the and the branches are pointed straight to the ground. You make a snowball and can squeeze the water out of it. 3.5" snow on 1" of QPF? :lol:

Yea you guys have an incredible pack going on,appears more chances in the cards too. Tues Wed could be bluebird spring skiing days,Jealous

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My brother said 3" in Carrabassett Valley ME.

Probably more on the mountain.

GYX reporting 7.0" from CV, though not exactly from where - could be the base lodge at 1,600'. Eustis came in at 7.5", both obs between 9-10 AM. Mist and 34 here.

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Snowfall totals per recent BTV map...

 

10003883_632742463464325_1914333693_n.pn

 

 

And precipitation...though I'm assuming this includes a lot of the morning Co-op and CoCoRAHS observations, so these are probably a little low with maybe another tenth falling today?  Looks like the Stowe Village CoCoRAHS guy came in with 0.82" and 0.7" of snow.  With the easterly flow, makes sense the precip was a little heavier on this side verses near a half inch on the west side of the Spine.  Although probably due to lack of reporting stations, I bet the eastern Adirondacks got more precip than shown with the orographic enhancement on E/NE winds.

 

1970799_632742436797661_170204800_n.png

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Its 5:30pm and noticing Mount Washington summit is up to 38F.  At 5300 feet it is only 25F.  Quite a warm layer!

That 25F is at 4300', but regardless it's still pretty impressive.

 

 

edit:

 

Just saw PF's post in the other thread. Maybe 5300' was at 25F...up to 32F now though.

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Event totals: 0.2” Snow/0.84” L.E.

 

This certainly wasn’t a perfect storm in the Northern Greens since there was mixed precipitation along with the snow, but it looks like there was a decent addition to the snowpack in the higher elevations, with the depth at the Mt. Mansfield Stake increasing by a couple of inches.  And, even without the entire event falling as snow, there were some damn fine turns to be had throughout the day, depending on time and elevation.

 

I was at Bolton Valley in the morning, and I already sent in a brief update on the conditions I encountered there.  The lower half to two thirds of the main mountain was the place be at that point, with smooth turns in the fresh shot of dense snow – you generally wanted to be somewhere underneath the 2,500 – 2,800’ elevation range to get fresh tracks below the more substantial rain crust near the summits.  Although accumulations were only in the 3-5” range, the snow was so dense that it was easily bottomless and you weren’t touching down on any old surfaces – great fun on the rockered fat skis.  In the afternoon, we headed to Stowe, and started off with some fantastic turns on the lower half of Spruce Peak, which would be in the 1,500’ to 2,500’ elevation range.  There were still areas of untracked snow on the sides of trails, and it would just peel away beautifully with each turn, just like I’d encountered at Bolton.  I’d traded in my fat Tele skis for some skinnier alpine skis, and I was definitely wishing I had some cambered fats like the boys did for smearing turns in that snow.  We heard reports from others in our ski program who had ventured up higher to the top of the Sensation Quad, which is at ~3,200’ and that was up into the crust elevations at that point with ongoing freezing mist/rain that would coat your goggles.  In general though, the precipitation that we’d seen in the morning had tapered off, so it was just cloudy for much of the afternoon.  Later in the afternoon we headed up to the top of the Gondola at ~3,600’, and the freezing level had definitely risen to bring those higher elevations more into play.  You still didn’t want to break fresh lines up high because of the substantial crust, but stuff the people had skied was in great shape by that point and the on piste runs were excellent from top to bottom.  On our last ride up in the Gondola around 3:30 P.M., sleet was falling, so there must have been some cold air moving in.  I’ve added a few pictures from today at Bolton and Stowe below:

 

30MAR14E.jpg

 

30MAR14H.jpg

 

30MAR14G.jpg

 

30MAR14D.jpg

 

When we got home later in the afternoon, I found an additional 0.12” of liquid in the rain gauge, and the snowpack was down a half inch from where it had been earlier in the day.

 

There are still Winter Weather Advisories out in the area through 11:00 A.M. tomorrow for additional mixed precipitation accumulations, so I’ve added the updated BTV NWS advisories map below:

 

30MAR14I.jpg

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The fookin' ice at my house this morning was worse that what we had when the CPV had their ice storm back in January.  Not sure how much there was for accretion but my car was solidly encased and my driveway was almost unwalkable.  I-89 was crappy until Exit 7, north of that seemed like there wasn't that much rain and here in Montpelier the parking lot was icy but the sidewalks aren't bad.

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Only a trace overnight, but hit ZR/IP about 10 miles from my AUG workplace east of the Kennebec.  Some nasty driving, and one SUV in the ditch.  Upper portions of Mile Hill had considerable ice yesterday, 0.3 to 0.5", most still bending the trees, breaking a few.  Sandy River has come up nearly 2' but it's not muddy, and it's not yet moving the ice.  It may erode from below, or maybe the ice run awaits the next storm or some days of 50+.  We'll get the former before the latter.

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I think a lot of people's commutes were worse than expected. Normally takes me 40'. Was 100' today. Just heavy sleet. Flying to BWI later today. Maybe the cherry blossoms are out?

 

My normal commute is ~55 minutes. My commute this morning was 1.5 hours. At thimes early this morning, the sleet was really coming down. Add darkness and it was difficult to see at times. Total sleet fall was close to 1/2" at home. About the same here at work in the west end of Portland. There was some freezing rain before the sleet started but I did not get a measurement on that.

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From Nittany in the March thread...  these are impressive numbers, even with the lower period of record at MVL and MPV.  Those two just destroyed their previous coldest March.

 

 

Top Coldest Marches at BTV--

 

1.) 1885- 16.8F

2.) 1916- 20.7F

3.) 2014- 21.7F

4.) 1984- 21.9F

5.) 1912- 21.9F

6.) 1923- 22.0F

7.) 1926- 22.5F

 

It will depend on how today finishes, but right now in 3rd (although there were missing days in 1885, so you could argue we're #2)

 

 

 

Top Coldest Marches at MPV--

 

1.) 2014- 17.6F

2.) 1960- 20.6F

3.) 1984- 21.1F

4.) 1956- 21.4F

 

We're blowing away the coldest March at MPV, but period of record is less, 1948-2014.

 

 

 

Top Coldest Marches at MVL--

 

1.) 2014- 17.4F

2.) 2001- 24.3F

3.) 1997- 24.5F

4.) 2008- 24.7F

 

Also blowing away the coldest March at MVL, but period of record is only 1986-2014.

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From Nittany in the March thread...  these are impressive numbers, even with the lower period of record at MVL and MPV.  Those two just destroyed their previous coldest March.

 

Good info.  I'll probably know by Tomorrow or Wednesday whether 2014 was Farmington's coldest March in 122 years of records.  It won't be any lower than 2nd.  For my tiny (16 yr) period of stats, the March will be coldest by over 6F.

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What's amazing to me is that this "warm-up" well into the 40s is still slightly below normal for this time of year.

 

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 327 PM EDT MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST
LATER IN THE DAY AS THE HIGH DEPARTS AND RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY...TEMPS WILL REBOUND
NICELY...AND SHOULD TOP OFF IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION...JUST A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST OF APRIL.

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Depending on Today's actual low, looks like we're headed for #5 Coldest here at BTV (and that's with the removal of 1885).

 

1.) 1916- 20.7F
2.) 1984- 21.9F
3.) 1912- 21.9F
4.) 1923- 22.0F
5.) 1926- 22.5F

 

Looks like we might come in at 22.1F.

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Depending on Today's actual low, looks like we're headed for #5 Coldest here at BTV (and that's with the removal of 1885).

1.) 1916- 20.7F

2.) 1984- 21.9F

3.) 1912- 21.9F

4.) 1923- 22.0F

5.) 1926- 22.5F

Looks like we might come in at 22.1F.

Dec 1 to March 31 rankings?

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March is in the books now, and it came in with 37.8” of snow.  That is certainly above average, but it would have taken one additional moderate to large storm to get it into a top position among Marches; even in my relatively small data set, both March 2007 (40.2”) and March 2011 (39.6”) are ahead of it.  Although this March wasn’t breaking any records in total snowfall, it continued the season’s interesting trend of reigning with respect to storm quantity.  2013-2014 has that title locked up on a seasonal level with 56 accumulating snowstorms already in the books, so each storm going forward is now just padding its stats.  And, with ten storms of its own, this March took the top prize among Marches, beating out March 2008 and March 2011, which each had nine.

 

The March certainly helped with respect to making up the large snowfall deficits from earlier in the season though; seasonal snowfall is now at 89.9% of average, the deficit is 15.6”, and that’s 0.46 S.D. below the mean.

 

Referencing my quote from this stage one month ago:

 

With the February snowfall in the books, one can contemplate the numbers with regard to the rest of the season, and it’s really going to take an outstanding March and April to get anywhere near average snowfall.  It’s certainly possible though, since March-April 2007 brought 62.2” of snow in what was a very back-loaded winter.

 

…we can see that while March certainly didn’t go above and beyond March 2007, it just about performed its part with respect to a potential recovery to average.  It will still take an April in the 20” range like 2006-2007 to close that gap to average, but at least there are potential storms on the horizon:

 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 315 AM EDT TUESDAY...A FAIRLY ACTIVE BUT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ANTICIPATED ACRS THE CONUS WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR CWA.

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Looks like March will be right at 18.0F when I get the numbers from Fri-Sat when I was at CON for a meeting.  That's 6.2F colder than 2003, my previous coldest March, and 9.7F under my avg for the month.  "NNE winter", DJFM, averaged 14.7, which is 1.5F colder than my previous coldest in 2003.  The snowfall of 30.8" missed by just 0.1" from matching exactly with both Dec and Feb, an odd bit of trivia.  More March trivia:  In 16 yr the month has produced 30"+ snowfall 4 times, but has never finished in the 20s, as #5 is 19.3" in 2007.

 

Thru 3/22 Farmington COOP was running 2.4F higher than my temps; if that trend holds, they'll come in under their current coldest March of 20.77, set in 1984.  CAR unofficial (from Wunderground) was 15.08, which would break their March record of 15.26, set in 1939, their first year of records.

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...SUMMARY OF COLD TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR MARCH 2014 ACROSS VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK...

THE FOLLOWING REPRESENT AN PRELIMINARY LISTING OF VARIOUS RECORDS
THAT WERE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. ALL THE DATA HAVE NOT
BEEN FULLY QUALITY CONTROLLED, AND MAY CHANGE SOMEWHAT AT A FUTURE
TIME.

BURLINGTON VERMONT (RECORDS TO 1892)
. AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 22.1F. 8.9F BELOW NORMAL.
. 5TH COLDEST MARCH. RECORD REMAINS 20.7F IN 1916
. 7 DAYS AT OR BELOW ZERO. 2ND MOST ON RECORD. RECORD REMAINS 8 IN 1948.
. 1 DAILY RECORD LOW. 1 DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUM.
. 32ND COLDEST JANUARY-MARCH PERIOD WITH AN AVERAGE OF 20.2F

MONTPELIER VERMONT (RECORDS TO 1948)
. AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F. 10.9F BELOW NORMAL.
. TOP COLDEST MARCH. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 20.6F IN 1960
. 12 DAYS AT OR BELOW ZERO. MOST ON RECORD. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 9 IN 1956.
. 7 DAILY RECORD LOWS. 3 DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS
. 2ND COLDEST JANUARY-MARCH PERIOD WITH AN AVERAGE OF 15.7F.

RUTLAND VERMONT (RECORDS TO 1916)
. AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 19.4F. 13.3F BELOW NORMAL
. TOP COLDEST MARCH. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 23.6F IN 1926.
. 13 DAYS AT OR BELOW ZERO. MOST ON RECORD. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 8 IN 2007.
. 6 DAILY RECORD LOWS. 1 DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUM
. 3RD COLDEST JANUARY-MARCH PERIOD WITH AN AVERAGE OF 17.7F.

ST JOHNSBURY VERMONT (RECORDS TO 1894)
. AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 21.2F. 9.1F BELOW NORMAL.
. 2ND COLDEST MARCH. RECORD REMAINS 20.8F IN 1900
. 9 DAYS AT OR BELOW ZERO. 2ND MOST ON RECORD. RECORD REMAINS 11 IN 1900.
. NO DAILY RECORDS WERE SET OR TIED.
. 20TH COLDEST JANUARY-MARCH PERIOD WITH AN AVERAGE OF 18.6F.

MOUNT MANSFIELD VERMONT (RECORDS TO 1954)
. AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 11.7F. 8.4F BELOW NORMAL.
. TOP COLDEST MARCH. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 12.5F IN 1960.
. 15 DAYS AT OR BELOW ZERO. MOST ON RECORD. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 12 IN 1978.
. 1 DAILY RECORD LOW. 2 DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS
. 3RD COLDEST JANUARY-MARCH PERIOD WITH AN AVERAGE OF 9.3F.

MASSENA NEW YORK (RECORDS TO 1948)
. AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 18.6F. 9.5F BELOW NORMAL.
. TOP COLDEST MARCH. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 20.5F IN 1960.
. 15 DAYS AT OR BELOW ZERO. MOST ON RECORD. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 9 IN 2007.
. 6 DAILY RECORD LOWS. 2 DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS
. 6TH COLDEST JANUARY-MARCH PERIOD WITH AN AVERAGE OF 16.0F.

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The melt and mud season is underway... I'm still finding a general 16-20" on the ground this afternoon down in town, and did my snow survey for NWS today up at the mountain with 30" on the ground (11.5" liquid!) at 1,550ft.

 

 

The mud is just beginning but its going to get rugged as walking in it its already a few inches deep before you hit a frozen layer.

 

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What is the weather looking like for April 11-13th in north Vermont, Jay Peak area, based on current trends?  I can't see anything beyond a ten day forecast on other weather sites.  Ten day has temps still in the 30s but wondering if there will be a major shift into the 60s-70s in the short future beyond the 10th.  This is asked in regards to a planned ski trip.

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 MONTPELIER VERMONT (RECORDS TO 1948)

. AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 18.0F. 10.9F BELOW NORMAL.

. TOP COLDEST MARCH. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 20.6F IN 1960

. 12 DAYS AT OR BELOW ZERO. MOST ON RECORD. PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 9 IN 1956.

. 7 DAILY RECORD LOWS. 3 DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUMS

. 2ND COLDEST JANUARY-MARCH PERIOD WITH AN AVERAGE OF 15.7F.

. MOST EXPENSIVE HEATING SEASON SINCE 1998 (FOR ME)

 

 

Awesome numbers, Nitt...thanks!  I just needed to add that one last stat in bold ;)

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