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mreaves

NNE Winter Part 3

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The Euro is wavering back south again for next week. I for one am not getting my hopes up given how things have gone this year. We may see a moderate event, but the jackpot double digit totals are most likely going to end up in the southern mountains and interior MA.  The first phase of energy happens over the Mid/Lower MS Valley followed by a second positively tilted piece of energy dropping south out of the Upper GL in the overnight run.

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First Ct Lake with -28F this AM.

 

I think that thermometer is right across from the dam, which is quite a bit above the river (atleast 50'). Its not on top of a hill or anything, but Im sure you could find a better spot for radiating. Id love to have a thermometer in one of those little weenie valleys up there.

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SLK rose 28-degrees in one hour this morning.

7:51am...-6F

8:51am...22F

That's impressive at around one degree every two minutes all hour.

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SLK rose 28-degrees in one hour this morning.

7:51am...-6F

8:51am...22F

That's impressive at around one degree every two minutes all hour.

I was just going to post exactly this!  That's pretty cool.  Perfect conditions for it.

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I was just going to post exactly this! That's pretty cool. Perfect conditions for it.

Yeah, over this way at MVL, we did 16-degrees in one hour, and already have done a 43-degree temperature rise between 6am and noon.

I could tell when it was -9F down in the valley, but +20F at the top of the mountain, that when the inversion broke and we mixed out, temps were going to come up real fast in the valleys.

Currently 34/-5 with 18% RH at MVL.

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Big Black River, ME is working on a huge diurnal swing, -23f to 34f so far today.

 

Edit: They jumped to 37f as I was posting this for an even 60 degree spread.

USGS.01010070.18.00021..20140228.2014030

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Gotta love dry spring air masses for this stuff...usually a lot of these days in the next couple months. Like lows of 20F and highs of 70F later in April...good stuff.

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I think that thermometer is right across from the dam, which is quite a bit above the river (atleast 50'). Its not on top of a hill or anything, but Im sure you could find a better spot for radiating. Id love to have a thermometer in one of those little weenie valleys up there.

I need to get up there sometime. The furthest north I've been is a bit north of Milan/Dummer. We must have a few weenie Big Black River-like spots that routinely push -40 on the coldest shots. Plym/NHDOT should get an RWIS somewhere up there on rt3.

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The Euro is wavering back south again for next week. I for one am not getting my hopes up given how things have gone this year. We may see a moderate event, but the jackpot double digit totals are most likely going to end up in the southern mountains and interior MA.  The first phase of energy happens over the Mid/Lower MS Valley followed by a second positively tilted piece of energy dropping south out of the Upper GL in the overnight run.

Pack it in. I think it's over. Anything that falls after next week isn't going to stick around very long.

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Well some of you can continue worrying, but I won't. This system doesn't care what all of the others have previously done. We've had plenty of SNE/CNE jacks, cutters, and Cape scrapes. VT has just had some relative bad luck so far. If you guys had had your usual upslope fluff I don't think any of you would be complaining about the synoptic bad luck. Let's let it play out...shall we?

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I need to get up there sometime. The furthest north I've been is a bit north of Milan/Dummer. We must have a few weenie Big Black River-like spots that routinely push -40 on the coldest shots. Plym/NHDOT should get an RWIS somewhere up there on rt3.

 

One of the little elevated valleys on route 3 north of the First CT Lake would be a good spot for one.

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Well some of you can continue worrying, but I won't. This system doesn't care what all of the others have previously done. We've had plenty of SNE/CNE jacks, cutters, and Cape scrapes. VT has just had some relative bad luck so far. If you guys had had your usual upslope fluff I don't think any of you would be complaining about the synoptic bad luck. Let's let it play out...shall we?

But it's no fun if Dendrite doesn't worry!

I'm not worried about this one...seasons almost over, it's going to go where it wants to. Today is bringing me spring fever, haha.

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Well some of you can continue worrying, but I won't. This system doesn't care what all of the others have previously done. We've had plenty of SNE/CNE jacks, cutters, and Cape scrapes. VT has just had some relative bad luck so far. If you guys had had your usual upslope fluff I don't think any of you would be complaining about the synoptic bad luck. Let's let it play out...shall we?

 

The 12z Euro is in, and it continues with a SNE/CNE jackpot. We would be on the northwest flank and with shadowing I would go with 3-6", maybe 4-8" on the upper end if that solution verified. This is becoming more consistent now in the op run.

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Big Black River, ME is working on a huge diurnal swing, -23f to 34f so far today.

 

Edit: They jumped to 37f as I was posting this for an even 60 degree spread.

USGS.01010070.18.00021..20140228.2014030

 

Looks like their range was 56 or 57 degrees yesterday, too. 

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And, in a perfect world, when my youngest clears HS in six years, would love to find a way to re-located up to the state the empty nest into retirement years. Jealous of all who live up there now. 

 

Like I said, Zen, I did a 12 year bid in your hood, followed by 18 years of hard time in Fl.  Took me 30 years but I finally escaped, made my way up here and I've never looked back.  Come get some!

 

Pack it in. I think it's over. Anything that falls after next week isn't going to stick around very long.

But it's no fun if Dendrite doesn't worry!

I'm not worried about this one...seasons almost over, it's going to go where it wants to. Today is bringing me spring fever, haha.

 

I've had my fill.  I mentally check out of winter mode by 3/15 most every year.  Go big or go away from this point on.  I just ask one thing over the next 6 months...keep that high heat and humidity outta my face!

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A few 60+ ranges in N ME too. I'm not sure if that St. John River site is accurate, but they're sporting a 47F/-21F spread so far. That afternoon temp looks a bit jumpy though. Big Black River is 40/-23 so far.

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A few 60+ ranges in N ME too. I'm not sure if that St. John River site is accurate, but they're sporting a 47F/-21F spread so far. That afternoon temp looks a bit jumpy though. Big Black River is 40/-23 so far.

 Highly doubt that 47 - even Big Black's 40 was a bit surprising, as other N.Maine points appeared to top out in mid-upper 30s.  I'll probably have a 50F+ spread as it was about -15 this AM.

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 Highly doubt that 47 - even Big Black's 40 was a bit surprising, as other N.Maine points appeared to top out in mid-upper 30s.  I'll probably have a 50F+ spread as it was about -15 this AM.

It was only 37F on lava rock today. No way Black got to 47 or likely 40F.

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It was only 37F on lava rock today. No way Black got to 47 or likely 40F.

Yeah they got low/mid 40s up there. They downslope there with SSW flow.

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Yeah they got low/mid 40s up there. They downslope there with SSW flow.

 

Sort of a warm day across the northern side of New England... I see 42F for a high at Pittsburg Village.  That seems to happen a lot in the spring though... these low humidity days can sort of have the warmth go "over the top" with the CAD areas holding cooler down to ORH.

 

Cracking dry airmass though...hit 12% RH today with dews below zero and temps near 40F.  You can tell its dry because the snow isn't melting much at all...just like the usual around roadways and stuff.

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>60F diurnal range is just nuts, without a major frontal passage involved - even crazy with a front.  Greatest no-front range I've had was 56F, with 86/30 on 5/21/77.  Next day was more memorable, however, as CAR matched its all time hottest with 96 - while I was insulating my attic :(   - and because that topped Phoenix by one degree, was touted as the hottest reporting station in the US for that day.  Still one of my favorite "man bites dog" stories, in wx or any subject.

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The storm for the 13th is slipping away from us in the models. No surprise there. The overnight Euro says congrats SNE.

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