aldie 22 Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Looks like JBs greater than normal snowfall prediction for SC is spot on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 It's been a steady march towards a cooler Nov with the models the last 3-4 days. The first half of the month could end up BN. The warm up next week has trended brief and another cool shot is shaping up next weekend. Beyond that has no warm signal. Looks like some agreement starting to shape up with ridging up the west coast and through AK for the second week of the month. Lowest heights centered in the middle of the country but no obvious warmth here with cool anoms close by the whole time. Yesterday's weeklies look fine with possible split flow and southern storm track to close the month. No big signals on temps one way or the other late in the month. Coolest relative to normal temps are across the deep south and se week 3 then across socal-sw-tx during week 4. All in all, Nov is shaping up to not throw any caution leading into Dec. And it looks like it should feel like November. Let's hope for blocking to start to set up late in Nov and kick off Dec with something to track. Seems like a warm Nov may be teetering. The Euro ENS sure seem to be building the ridging out west. I am always leery of cold Nov's but looks like it may be coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Seems like a warm Nov may be teetering. The Euro ENS sure seem to be building the ridging out west. I am always leery of cold Nov's but looks like it may be coming. Pack, Based on the past, a near normal or cold Nov. following our warm Oct. would definitely not be a bad thing. To the contrary, a warm Nov. after a warm Oct. in the SE would be a bit bothersome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Pack, Based on the past, a near normal or cold Nov. following our warm Oct. would definitely not be a bad thing. To the contrary, a warm Nov. after a warm Oct. in the SE would be a bit bothersome. except for 1963... edit...The south east was normal..But most of the country was mild... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 Seems like a warm Nov may be teetering. The Euro ENS sure seem to be building the ridging out west. I am always leery of cold Nov's but looks like it may be coming. 12z GEFS says Nov is now a winter month...lol. At least the rain will be colder anyways. I think the look for the first half of Nov is almost textbook for what we are looking for in many ways. Looks just like a Nino and now it looks like blocking will set up nice by d7-10 range. Reminds me of 02-03... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 12z GEFS says Nov is now a winter month...lol. At least the rain will be colder anyways. I think the look for the first half of Nov is almost textbook for what we are looking for in many ways. Looks just like a Nino and now it looks like blocking will set up nice by d7-10 range. Reminds me of 02-03... It's a total gut feeling, but I think lots of us outside the cities see a little accumulating snow this month sometime. Wouldn't have been too shocking to say that 30-40 years ago, but accumulating November snow seems rarer than April snow since I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 +4 +1 +4 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 +4 +1 +4 8" Seattle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 1, 2014 Share Posted November 1, 2014 EURO HI-RES Ensemble :Has the AO plummeting starting NOV 6th. :NAO near neutral, showing signs of it dropping towards negative. :PNA looking positive Right now, NOV isn't looking to be as mild as a lot of us thought it would be, still could be slightly above normal, but increasing thoughts that it might be slightly below normal in my honest opinion. Only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 +4 +1 +4 8" -4-1 -4 80" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 +4 +1 +4 8" Bold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 +4 +1 +4 8" Science!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 some savory analog winters in today's bunch http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/short_range/tools/gifs/500hgt_comp_sup814.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Science!! 4+1+4=9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 4+1+4=9 Math? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Math? Yup. Science! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 4+1+4 = Palindrome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 4+1+4 = Palindrome Race car Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 I'm looking forward to global warming giving us a warm winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 It's a total gut feeling, but I think lots of us outside the cities see a little accumulating snow this month sometime. Wouldn't have been too shocking to say that 30-40 years ago, but accumulating November snow seems rarer than April snow since I can remember. Agreed. Nov snow isn't something to wager anything on around here. 95-96 & 96-97 we're the last 2 measurable at IAD. But not too far back in the 70's and 80's there were enough occurrences to keep the disco open to a chance. March last year was an obvious statistical anomaly but it wasn't just one fluke. It was a solid snow pattern for a few weeks. Ensembles are advertising a pattern after next weekend that could produce snow in Nov. Obviously if any threat appears the further n-w the better chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 I'm looking forward to global warming giving us a warm winter. I'm looking forward to it altering the global pattern so that it brings us 17 blizzards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 first snow of the season, I believe, at Big Meadows on Skyline Drive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 I'm looking forward to it altering the global pattern so that it brings us 17 blizzards. Either one is just as likely, or occuring simultaneously. That's how fooked the system is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 I hope we get a ton more cold, windy, dry days in winter. They're awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 I hope we get a ton more cold, windy, dry days in winter. They're awesome. I hope we get a lot of school closures this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 I hope it torches so I can laugh at snow weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 I hope it torches so I can laugh at snow weenies. I hope it drops 100" so I can laugh at Warmistas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 CWG comes out either later this week or next week..I wonder how they will go.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 CWG comes out either later this week or next week..I wonder how they will go.... Dec 0- +1 Jan -1 - -2 Feb -1 - -2 Snow DCA 12-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted November 2, 2014 Share Posted November 2, 2014 Dec 0- +1 Jan -1 - -2 Feb -1 - -2 Snow DCA 12-15 Dec-0 Jan-0 Feb-0 snow DCA 15.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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