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Winter 2014-2015 Thread

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Weeklies look decent leading into Dec. The aleutian low/+pna shuffles a bit but hardly looks hostile. I would guess that CA would get meaningful rain if something similar verifies.

I'm not really going to put too much stock in the runs as we undergo the large scale pattern change. The weeklies didn't really pick up the mid month change very well. I can't access past runs so I'm going off of memory so I could be wrong.

Split flow look in late Nov has been there for at least the last 2-3 runs though so there's that.

ETA: Even though week 4 looks slightly above normal temp wise around here, there's still a signal for -AO/NAO in early Dec.

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RONALD B

RONALD B

Posted
Posted

Weeklies look decent leading into Dec. The aleutian low/+pna shuffles a bit but hardly looks hostile. I would guess that CA would get meaningful rain if something similar verifies.

I'm not really going to put too much stock in the runs as we undergo the large scale pattern change. The weeklies didn't really pick up the mid month change very well. I can't access past runs so I'm going off of memory so I could be wrong.

Split flow look in late Nov has been there for at least the last 2-3 runs though so there's that.

ETA: Even though week 4 looks slightly above normal temp wise around here, there's still a signal for -AO/NAO in early Dec.

dude trust me the euro weeklies has been bad so far this fall . for example it called for a ridge in the eastern us all of oct ?guess what ,it happen in the plains. all thease models have a baised way of thinking  if there mjo is wrong or off it's going too be wrong an off !

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RONALD B

RONALD B

Posted
Posted

Ronald, the weeklies have been really good this fall considering 2-4 week leads. It picked up the Aleutian low in during the first half of Oct and also a warm Sept and October.

The anomaly placements in the hemisphere have been pretty good at long leads.

i seen proof u are wrong an actually the cfs beat out  the euro weeklies for oct .https://twitter.com/WSI_Energy/status/528212349212459008/photo/1. Now does that look good too u ?

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

Could Bob or someone else explain split flow and why/how its good for our region re: wintry weather?

Split flow is having ridging in the west but also leaving door open for energy to come in underneath south of the ridge. You can see it on the h5 plots when bends in the isobars show trough like features and lower height anomalies underneath the ridge

For example, when you have an Aleutian trough and GOA/nw canada ridge, Pac energy runs up, over, and down the ridge axis. Having lower heights below the ridge allows energy to under cut and join the party in tx and the deep south. Nice ingredients for prolific precip in the east when things time right.

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

Posted
Posted

Could Bob or someone else explain split flow and why/how its good for our region re: wintry weather?

A split flow refers to when the branches of the jet separate.  Which means storm systems can ride along the southern branch.  Also is  good for phasing and ULL's downstream.   For our big events we usually have an upper level trough off the PAC NW with a ridge over the western US..  When we have a unified northern stream, we often get screwed.   January 25, 2000 is a good example of a split flow pattern. 

 

500mb-1200Z-25Jan00.gif

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

Posted
Posted

A split flow refers to when the branches of the jet separate.  Which means storm systems can ride along the southern branch.  Also is  good for phasing and ULL's downstream.   For our big events we usually have an upper level trough off the PAC NW with a ridge over the western US..  When we have a unified northern stream, we often get screwed.   January 25, 2000 is a good example of a split flow pattern. 

 

500mb-1200Z-25Jan00.gif

 

Here is another example..this one gave us some snow...

 

500mb_20100206-06Z.gif

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RONALD B

RONALD B

Posted
Posted

The CFS is terrible. It runs 4x a day and pretty much every run is different, so yes, at least one of those runs per month has a chance of getting close. 

this was based on the  run the month started, between the 2 models cfs ended up right, but the point was the euro weeklies is just as bad !

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Harry

Harry

Posted
Posted

Obviously 58-59 had a number of things going for it and it didnt work out....I think with all the signs in our favor, it would be unlikely, though not impossible, to get this kind of pattern in February given all the ingredients on the table...I don't know why the pattern went to crap, but in a +PDO/Nino/-QBO/Excellent SAI/SCE/OPI/October pattern, it wouldn't make any sense to forecast a February like this..we were just slightly above normal, but as you can see the pattern is egregiously hostile to snow in the mid atlantic..you punt a peak climo period at our latitude and you usually suck at snow...

 

 

attachicon.gif1959feb.png

 

That 58-59 is one HUGE reason i refuse to use the newer ONI chart. Using the prior version it will be hard to find a nino that had that pattern 58-59 had which looked more like a nina. The prior one 58-59 was not a nino.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears_1971-2000_climo.shtml

 

If we were still going by the old chart/rules i believe we would officially have a nino by now..

 

My argument is this with the Nino classification.. The southern Jet which all knows gets fed when we have a nino. So why would it all the sudden not be as robust with the SAME SSTs as we had in say 57-58? Remember using todays method even though the SST's may be the same as say 57-58 but because of the new method the nino would be considered weaker because they have increased the average temp in that part of the Pacific? Am i making sense here?

 

Sorry but i cannot buy into the newer version. I say avoid it. But that is me...

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wildweatherman179

wildweatherman179

Posted
Posted

That 58-59 is one HUGE reason i refuse to use the newer ONI chart. Using the prior version it will be hard to find a nino that had that pattern 58-59 had which looked more like a nina. The prior one 58-59 was not a nino.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears_1971-2000_climo.shtml

If we were still going by the old chart/rules i believe we would officially have a nino by now..

My argument is this with the Nino classification.. The southern Jet which all knows gets fed when we have a nino. So why would it all the sudden not be as robust with the SAME SSTs as we had in say 57-58? Remember using todays method even though the SST's may be the same as say 57-58 but because of the new method the nino would be considered weaker because they have increased the average temp in that part of the Pacific? Am i making sense here?

Sorry but i cannot buy into the newer version. I say avoid it. But that is me...

I have to agree totally with this. I've never had a problem with the old system either. It's very simple and straightforward. I also have problems with the 30 year rolling averages but I think I'm probably mostly alone in that regard.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

That 58-59 is one HUGE reason i refuse to use the newer ONI chart. Using the prior version it will be hard to find a nino that had that pattern 58-59 had which looked more like a nina. The prior one 58-59 was not a nino.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears_1971-2000_climo.shtml

If we were still going by the old chart/rules i believe we would officially have a nino by now..

My argument is this with the Nino classification.. The southern Jet which all knows gets fed when we have a nino. So why would it all the sudden not be as robust with the SAME SSTs as we had in say 57-58? Remember using todays method even though the SST's may be the same as say 57-58 but because of the new method the nino would be considered weaker because they have increased the average temp in that part of the Pacific? Am i making sense here?

Sorry but i cannot buy into the newer version. I say avoid it. But that is me...

Harry,

I'm going to guess at this. Maybe it has something to do with the SST's of the surrounding water. If we assume that the surrounding SST's are warmer these days, perhaps it takes even warmer 3.4 SST's to have the same effect today? Is this possible? I'll do a hypothetical example to illustrate. Let's say that the surrounding waters between 5 and 10 N/S had a normal temp of 25 C in 1958 but 26 C today. Now, let's say that in 1958 it took 25.5 C in Niño 3.4 to get a weak El Niño (i.e., 0.5 C warmer than the surrounding water). Well, today's 25.5 C in 3.4 would actually be COOLER than the surrounding water instead of warmer like in 1958. So, in order to make it 0.5 warmer than the surrounding water today, Niño 3.4 would need to be at 26.5 C instead of 25.5 C. So, might it be that Niño 3.4 would need to be at 26.5 C today to have the same El Niño type of effect today that 25.5 C had in 1958? If so, then would it, indeed, make sense to require 3.4 be 1 C warmer today than it was in 1958 to result in the same El Niño effects throughout the world today that it had in 1958?

Keep in mind that a typical El Niño SST signature has a strip of the warmest SST anomalies within 5 degrees of the equator.

Anyone? Might my way of thinking about this be true?

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BTRWx

BTRWx

Posted
Posted

Harry,

I'm going to guess at this. Maybe it has something to do with the SST's of the surrounding water. If we assume that the surrounding SST's are warmer these days, perhaps it takes even warmer 3.4 SST's to have the same effect today? Is this possible? I'll do a hypothetical example to illustrate. Let's say that the surrounding waters between 5 and 10 N/S had a normal temp of 25 C in 1958 but 26 C today. Now, let's say that in 1958 it took 25.5 C in Niño 3.4 to get a weak El Niño (i.e., 0.5 C warmer than the surrounding water). Well, today's 25.5 C in 3.4 would actually be COOLER than the surrounding water instead of warmer like in 1958. So, in order to make it 0.5 warmer than the surrounding water today, Niño 3.4 would need to be at 26.5 C instead of 25.5 C. So, might it be that Niño 3.4 would need to be at 26.5 C today to have the same El Niño type of effect today that 25.5 C had in 1958? If so, then would it, indeed, make sense to require 3.4 be 1 C warmer today than it was in 1958 to result in the same El Niño effects throughout the world today that it had in 1958?

Keep in mind that a typical El Niño SST signature has a strip of the warmest SST anomalies within 5 degrees of the equator.

Anyone? Might my way of thinking about this be true?

good post, makes sense

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

Posted
Posted

Harry,

I'm going to guess at this. Maybe it has something to do with the SST's of the surrounding water. If we assume that the surrounding SST's are warmer these days, perhaps it takes even warmer 3.4 SST's to have the same effect today? Is this possible? I'll do a hypothetical example to illustrate. Let's say that the surrounding waters between 5 and 10 N/S had a normal temp of 25 C in 1958 but 26 C today. Now, let's say that in 1958 it took 25.5 C in Niño 3.4 to get a weak El Niño (i.e., 0.5 C warmer than the surrounding water). Well, today's 25.5 C in 3.4 would actually be COOLER than the surrounding water instead of warmer like in 1958. So, in order to make it 0.5 warmer than the surrounding water today, Niño 3.4 would need to be at 26.5 C instead of 25.5 C. So, might it be that Niño 3.4 would need to be at 26.5 C today to have the same El Niño type of effect today that 25.5 C had in 1958? If so, then would it, indeed, make sense to require 3.4 be 1 C warmer today than it was in 1958 to result in the same El Niño effects throughout the world today that it had in 1958?

Keep in mind that a typical El Niño SST signature has a strip of the warmest SST anomalies within 5 degrees of the equator.

Anyone? Might my way of thinking about this be true?

I think the baseline does change things. Something like 09-10 would have been a monster strong Nino in the 1960s based on absolute temps, but it wasn't an 82-83 type Nino. I think using different baselines makes sense. I don't think it is perfect of course. But it doesn't make sense to use a 50 yr old norm as your departure point. Ninos today have to be warmer in an absolute sense than a nino 50 years ago to achieve the same effect.

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

The majority of the CFS runs have been warm (85+%'ish?) since September or August for November and DJF period. I can see the meltdown already starting w/people just making stuff up.

If you put stock in the CFS, then you've already melted down.

 

Face it.  Your predictions of hellish torches and a coming P/T extinction level event are going to flat on their face.  Your constant global warming slant on everything you post makes almost all of your posts unfit for a winter SEASON thread.

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AvantHiatus

AvantHiatus

Posted
Posted

If you put stock in the CFS, then you've already melted down.

 

Face it.  Your predictions of hellish torches and a coming P/T extinction level event are going to flat on their face.  Your constant global warming slant on everything you post makes almost all of your posts unfit for a winter SEASON thread.

Flat-out slanderous lies. I intended for the P/T stuff to stay in the climate forum and is not relevant to this year or winter. My prediction for this winter is slightly above normal with a poor snow department along and east of I-95.

 

I put some stock into the CFS, last year this time it showed arctic ice box conditions and was correct. We are on our way up and out tho. Just sayin', give it a couple more decades especially when you see a complete flip back into +PDO like the 80s and 90s.

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