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Winter 2014-2015 Thread


Ji

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It's been a steady march towards a cooler Nov with the models the last 3-4 days. The first half of the month could end up BN. The warm up next week has trended brief and another cool shot is shaping up next weekend. Beyond that has no warm signal. Looks like some agreement starting to shape up with ridging up the west coast and through AK for the second week of the month. Lowest heights centered in the middle of the country but no obvious warmth here with cool anoms close by the whole time.

Yesterday's weeklies look fine with possible split flow and southern storm track to close the month. No big signals on temps one way or the other late in the month. Coolest relative to normal temps are across the deep south and se week 3 then across socal-sw-tx during week 4.

All in all, Nov is shaping up to not throw any caution leading into Dec. And it looks like it should feel like November.

Let's hope for blocking to start to set up late in Nov and kick off Dec with something to track.

Seems like a warm Nov may be teetering. The Euro ENS sure seem to be building the ridging out west. I am always leery of cold Nov's but looks like it may be coming.

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Seems like a warm Nov may be teetering. The Euro ENS sure seem to be building the ridging out west. I am always leery of cold Nov's but looks like it may be coming.

Pack,

Based on the past, a near normal or cold Nov. following our warm Oct. would definitely not be a bad thing. To the contrary, a warm Nov. after a warm Oct. in the SE would be a bit bothersome.

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Pack,

Based on the past, a near normal or cold Nov. following our warm Oct. would definitely not be a bad thing. To the contrary, a warm Nov. after a warm Oct. in the SE would be a bit bothersome.

except for 1963... :snowing:

edit...The south east was normal..But most of the country was mild...

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Seems like a warm Nov may be teetering. The Euro ENS sure seem to be building the ridging out west. I am always leery of cold Nov's but looks like it may be coming.

12z GEFS says Nov is now a winter month...lol. At least the rain will be colder anyways.

I think the look for the first half of Nov is almost textbook for what we are looking for in many ways. Looks just like a Nino and now it looks like blocking will set up nice by d7-10 range. Reminds me of 02-03...

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12z GEFS says Nov is now a winter month...lol. At least the rain will be colder anyways.

I think the look for the first half of Nov is almost textbook for what we are looking for in many ways. Looks just like a Nino and now it looks like blocking will set up nice by d7-10 range. Reminds me of 02-03...

It's a total gut feeling, but I think lots of us outside the cities see a little accumulating snow this month sometime. Wouldn't have been too shocking to say that 30-40 years ago, but accumulating November snow seems rarer than April snow since I can remember. 

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EURO HI-RES Ensemble 

:Has the AO plummeting starting NOV 6th.

:NAO near neutral, showing  signs of it dropping towards negative.

:PNA looking positive

 

Right now, NOV isn't looking to be as mild as a lot of us thought it would be, still could be slightly above normal, but increasing thoughts that it might be slightly below normal in my honest opinion. Only time will tell.

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It's a total gut feeling, but I think lots of us outside the cities see a little accumulating snow this month sometime. Wouldn't have been too shocking to say that 30-40 years ago, but accumulating November snow seems rarer than April snow since I can remember.

Agreed. Nov snow isn't something to wager anything on around here. 95-96 & 96-97 we're the last 2 measurable at IAD. But not too far back in the 70's and 80's there were enough occurrences to keep the disco open to a chance.

March last year was an obvious statistical anomaly but it wasn't just one fluke. It was a solid snow pattern for a few weeks. Ensembles are advertising a pattern after next weekend that could produce snow in Nov. Obviously if any threat appears the further n-w the better chance.

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