daxx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The gfs has .25" to .50" for the southern half of state. It has a small area 0.50"+ in southeast pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Lol I'm just playing with ya brother! I used to be you basically. Wow thanks. That's encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 For warning criteria snow, 6'+, UNV and NYC are tied over that timeframe, 8-to-8. So, yeah, NYC can't complain. Really, we don't have much to complain about either. But some of us make it abundantly clear that it's not about getting snow, it's about whining and finding anything that can go wrong, and let's not beat around the bush....it's reflective of something about that person that's ****ed up beyond just the weather. Please, I've known there's been something wrong with me for years. This isn't new to me. I'm a f***ing pessimist and I do not deny it in any way, shape, or form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The gfs looks great! Fill me in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Please, I've known there's been something wrong with me for years. This isn't new to me. I'm a f***ing pessimist and I do not deny it in any way, shape, or form. No worries. Just try not to let your emotions overcome you so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Wow thanks. That's encouraging LOL...if this was a slam well done!! In all seriousness you are in a great spot enjoy the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GFS paints a 6-9" event across the southern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 LOL...if this was a slam well done!! In all seriousness you are in a great spot enjoy the snow! And whatever anyone gets will stick around, so once the storm is over....if I cant see the lawn.....all is right in the world. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 GFS paints a 6-9" event across the southern tier. Looks like it tries to push the 1-3" amounts further north to I-80 as well...hoping for at least enough to cover the bare spots around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I am loving this 40 degree weather on the day off!! Makes me sad to think it will be brutally cold and sickening in the next day and a half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Hubba hubba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Looks like it tries to push the 1-3" amounts further north to I-80 as well...hoping for at least enough to cover the bare spots around here. amazing how consistent the GFS has been with this. The .25 line is not far from us, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 amazing how consistent the GFS has been with this. The .25 line is not far from us, too. I think 0z was even pushing that line into our area. We'll see - would like to see other models follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Hubba hubba snowiw.jpg What ratios does that map use? I think we wind up with some insane ratios considering how cold it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Isn't it true though that the GFS tends to smooth out totals on it's northern edge in these situations?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 lol at your avatar psu... my point and click just went from 6-8 to 3-7. storm cancel edit. Back to 4-8, whew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Very pleasantly surprised by this one. When's the last time a "clipper" morphed into a 990mb coastal at our latitude? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 FYI update... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA1102 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY....A FAST MOVING BUT POTENT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OFSNOW TO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING.THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SIX INCHES OR MORE OF ACCUMULATIONALONG THE MARYLAND BORDER AND INTO THE HARRISBURG METRO AREA.PAZ033>036-057-059-063>066-210215-/O.CON.KCTP.WS.A.0001.140121T0900Z-140122T0300Z/SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-DAUPHIN-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOMERSET...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG...CHAMBERSBURG...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...LEBANON...CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER1102 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014...A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHTTHROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...* LOCATIONS...SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW.* TIMING...LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING.* IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADS AND PERIODS OF POOR VISIBILITY.* WINDS...NORTH TO NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Man, this came kinds out of nowhere quickly. Wife can't leave her office before 4 pm tomorrow. That worries me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Man, this came kinds out of nowhere quickly. Wife can't leave her office before 4 pm tomorrow. That worries me. Businesses rely on local news weather which is HORRIBLE! Hopefully the hype machine spins tonight and places close. I am taking off Tuesday because my ride home up I-83 could be impossible in a Camry. I can see the southern tier getting a foot with ratios, add the winds and severe cold, travel might be impossible without a 4X4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Man, this came kinds out of nowhere quickly. Wife can't leave her office before 4 pm tomorrow. That worries me. That aspect of the coming pattern has been advertised well I think. Lots of vorts diving in from the NS that might not get resolved until 2-3 days before hand. Of course it was never a guarantee but looks like this one is going to do the business! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm not sure it's fair to bash the media mets so strongly. In fairness, they need to be certain the trend is real and we really only have 2-3 model runs worth of info depicting the snow as serious as it looks to be. I know Matt (Allweather) and others take care to deliver good info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm not sure it's fair to bash the media mets so strongly. In fairness, they need to be certain the trend is real and we really only have 2-3 model runs worth of info depicting the snow as serious as it looks to be. I know Matt (Allweather) and others take care to deliver good info. I agree to some extent and this one was very tough. By tonight though if the panic button isn't pushed to get the word out about Tuesday then some heads should fly. I still have friends who think Baltimore will get 1-2 inches because of last nights news. At least watches are up so that should get attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 MAG had pointed out several days ago, that these systems are going to be ones where the models catch up really late on the party. I was reading the CTP disco up to last evening and not a mention of anything occurring. So hopefully the word gets around. I brought it up at my office meeting this morning and most were surprised, so now our snow rules are in place tomorrow. Don't drive in if you can't, work from home, etc. Let us hope we can eek out a 6-10 or perhaps 12. There was some mention in the CTP disco from this morning about the system slowing down a little as it rounded the base of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Businesses rely on local news weather which is HORRIBLE! Hopefully the hype machine spins tonight and places close. I am taking off Tuesday because my ride home up I-83 could be impossible in a Camry. I can see the southern tier getting a foot with ratios, add the winds and severe cold, travel might be impossible without a 4X4.When you work in print and have deadlines, work can't be cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I agree to some extent and this one was very tough. By tonight though if the panic button isn't pushed to get the word out about Tuesday then some heads should fly. I still have friends who think Baltimore will get 1-2 inches because of last nights news. At least watches are up so that should get attention. I'm in for the evening newscasts today...believe me, the word will be out. I've seen enough to think at least 4" will fall in the southern tier counties. We have been mentioning snow tomorrow with wording like "chance snow" or "snow showers" since Thursday last week. Even over the weekend, myself and Dr. John Scala both mentioned that Tuesday's chance needed watching. Not sure what the bashing is about... Because of the public's perception of weather, we typically stay a little conservative until 24 hours out, to protect our low-end with winter storms. Once there's better guidance agreement we will up totals, if we need to. You can't even imagine the public outcry when we are off by 1 or 2 inches in their backyards, let alone more than that. THIS is the mentality of people these days...they expect perfection with regards to a science that is not perfectly understood. THIS is why we protect our low-end. Many (not all) of the "Facebook forecasters" will throw out high totals from the start to garner page views and shares, with little or no accountability if the storm doesn't pan out. Also, many times what these Facebook pages say will be construed as what the the TV stations say or NWS, because that's how the he said/she said things work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm in for the evening newscasts today...believe me, the word will be out. I've seen enough to think at least 4" will fall in the southern tier counties. We have been mentioning snow tomorrow with wording like "chance snow" or "snow showers" since Thursday last week. Even over the weekend, myself and Dr. John Scala both mentioned that Tuesday's chance needed watching. Not sure what the bashing is about... Because of the public's perception of weather, we typically stay a little conservative until 24 hours out, to protect our low-end with winter storms. Once there's better guidance agreement we will up totals, if we need to. You can't even imagine the public outcry when we are off by 1 or 2 inches in their backyards, let alone more than that. THIS is the mentality of people these days...they expect perfection with regards to a science that is not perfectly understood. THIS is why we protect our low-end. Many (not all) of the "Facebook forecasters" will throw out high totals from the start to garner page views and shares, with little or no accountability if the storm doesn't pan out. Also, many times what these Facebook pages say will be construed as what the the TV stations say or NWS, because that's how the he said/she said things work. Speaking from an emergency service stand point, with these guys, is they get a cult like following,they bash everyone including NWS so their followers start believing them and not the Pros. This could cost lives during an actual event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm in for the evening newscasts today...believe me, the word will be out. I've seen enough to think at least 4" will fall in the southern tier counties. We have been mentioning snow tomorrow with wording like "chance snow" or "snow showers" since Thursday last week. Even over the weekend, myself and Dr. John Scala both mentioned that Tuesday's chance needed watching. Not sure what the bashing is about... Because of the public's perception of weather, we typically stay a little conservative until 24 hours out, to protect our low-end with winter storms. Once there's better guidance agreement we will up totals, if we need to. You can't even imagine the public outcry when we are off by 1 or 2 inches in their backyards, let alone more than that. THIS is the mentality of people these days...they expect perfection with regards to a science that is not perfectly understood. THIS is why we protect our low-end. Many (not all) of the "Facebook forecasters" will throw out high totals from the start to garner page views and shares, with little or no accountability if the storm doesn't pan out. Also, many times what these Facebook pages say will be construed as what the the TV stations say or NWS, because that's how the he said/she said things work. Yes...agree with all of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm in for the evening newscasts today...believe me, the word will be out. I've seen enough to think at least 4" will fall in the southern tier counties. We have been mentioning snow tomorrow with wording like "chance snow" or "snow showers" since Thursday last week. Even over the weekend, myself and Dr. John Scala both mentioned that Tuesday's chance needed watching. Not sure what the bashing is about... Because of the public's perception of weather, we typically stay a little conservative until 24 hours out, to protect our low-end with winter storms. Once there's better guidance agreement we will up totals, if we need to. You can't even imagine the public outcry when we are off by 1 or 2 inches in their backyards, let alone more than that. THIS is the mentality of people these days...they expect perfection with regards to a science that is not perfectly understood. THIS is why we protect our low-end. Many (not all) of the "Facebook forecasters" will throw out high totals from the start to garner page views and shares, with little or no accountability if the storm doesn't pan out. Also, many times what these Facebook pages say will be construed as what the the TV stations say or NWS, because that's how the he said/she said things work. I have never envied the position that local forecasters are put in. Your damned if you do and damned if you don't by what seems all groups. You guys do a great job at WGAL and I still love your statements when the big ones were coming that we would need a yardstick to measure, not just a ruler. Keep up the great work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Whp calling for a coating to 3 inches in its viewing area according to Facebook from meteorologist drew Anderson. Edit: upped totals to 2-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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