NeffsvilleWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 E. Horst says 3-6 North of 30, 6-8 south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Boy, those guys who this weekend over on the Philly subforum jumped all over the GFS blowtorch for next week have grown long ears and have started braying. Lesson learned: view GFS long range warmups with suspicion if they have no support. This week was supposed to be a torch via the GFS two weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I agree to some extent and this one was very tough. By tonight though if the panic button isn't pushed to get the word out about Tuesday then some heads should fly. I still have friends who think Baltimore will get 1-2 inches because of last nights news. At least watches are up so that should get attention. I'm in for the evening newscasts today...believe me, the word will be out. I've seen enough to think at least 4" will fall in the southern tier counties. We have been mentioning snow tomorrow with wording like "chance snow" or "snow showers" since Thursday last week. Even over the weekend, myself and Dr. John Scala both mentioned that Tuesday's chance needed watching. Not sure what the bashing is about... Because of the public's perception of weather, we typically stay a little conservative until 24 hours out, to protect our low-end with winter storms. Once there's better guidance agreement we will up totals, if we need to. You can't even imagine the public outcry when we are off by 1 or 2 inches in their backyards, let alone more than that. THIS is the mentality of people these days...they expect perfection with regards to a science that is not perfectly understood. THIS is why we protect our low-end. Many (not all) of the "Facebook forecasters" will throw out high totals from the start to garner page views and shares, with little or no accountability if the storm doesn't pan out. Also, many times what these Facebook pages say will be construed as what the the TV stations say or NWS, because that's how the he said/she said things work. Agreed. LOL - Science is not perfect (I am a mechanical engineer). You have to manage expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Interesting post by Mitchell Gaines (Mt. Holly) on the Philly forum. Looks like most applies to us down here in the SE corner of CTP. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 20, 2014 Author Share Posted January 20, 2014 Boy, those guys who this weekend over on the Philly subforum jumped all over the GFS blowtorch for next week have grown long ears and have started braying. Lesson learned: view GFS long range warmups with suspicion if they have no support. This week was supposed to be a torch via the GFS two weeks ago. I just looked over the 12z GFS and only one frame (hr 324) has our 850 temps above 0C, and most of the next 16 days it is below -10C. Pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I just looked over the 12z GFS and only one frame (hr 324) has our 850 temps above 0C, and most of the next 16 days it is below -10C. Pretty impressive. Boooo!! Lol. Seriously a warm up would be nice after this next freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I just looked over the 12z GFS and only one frame (hr 324) has our 850 temps above 0C, and most of the next 16 days it is below -10C. Pretty impressive. Long range looking great today compared to over the weekend. Cold and a train of storms. All you can really say at this point is we will have our chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 LWX warning trigger pulled. 6-8" with 8-10" in higher locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 LWX warning trigger pulled. 6-8" with 8-10" in higher locations. I'm seeing 4 - 6" for the PA border counties. If that follows into PA, then we'd be looking at high end advisory criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 1st guess: MDT 3" LNS 5.5" York 6.5" Zac 7.5" UNV 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Glad to see the southern members are going to get a nice hit of snow!!! And also good news seeing the possibility of a couple more storms down the stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 1st Guess: MDT: 2.5" IPT: Few flakes UNV: few flakes Zack: 4.4" LNS: 6.2" York" 5.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Is it me or does TWC seem to be trying reallly hard to downplay this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Glad to see the southern members are going to get a nice hit of snow!!! And also good news seeing the possibility of a couple more storms down the stretch. The Lancaster crowd has been killing it this year. I hope the Hburg crowd can squeeze out a nice hit but they are right on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Is it me or does TWC seem to be trying reallly hard to downplay this event? Do they have a name for it yet?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 1st guess: MDT 3" LNS 5.5" York 6.5" Zac 7.5" UNV 1" LNS 5-7 York 6-8 UNV 1-3" NE Cumberland County (me) 3-5 <- I'll use for Harrisburg proper as well Zak- dryslotted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Most all model plumes are at least .35+ for KMDT. Given ratios, I would place the boundary for 3/4 inch amounts about 30 miles or so north of the turnpike. Also given the slow progression of the arctic front, it is very easy to see this low budge a tad to the north. I am back up at school, but for those in Harrisburg I would not worry about the northern gradient as much as some other instances. It is darn close, but should be to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Is it me or does TWC seem to be trying reallly hard to downplay this event? directv's fault probably... 12z Euro rolling.... cant wait for either the outrage or happy freakout coming in a few in certain subforums lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm seeing 4 - 6" for the PA border counties. If that follows into PA, then we'd be looking at high end advisory criteria. HGR under 6-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Do they have a name for it yet?? No. Not only have they NOT named it, but they're passing it off, for the most part, as "snow showers". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Euro is way NW and wetter. Man that model has been smoked lately. Complete arm chair fold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The euro the now looks like gfs!!! It even takes .025" line further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 anyone have Euro precip amounts for So.PA/NoMD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yes here comes our .78" snowstorm psuhazleton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 anyone have Euro precip amounts for So.PA/NoMD? .4-.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 anyone have Euro precip amounts for So.PA/NoMD? I have SV maps which put us in the 0.25" to 0.50". I dont have exact numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 anyone have Euro precip amounts for So.PA/NoMD? 0.50" for DMW and 0.45" for LNS through 06z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Pretty much multiply 1.5 times or double these amounts and you have the snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 "this is not going to be a major storm by any means" - TWC video update... ugh... 3-5" in DC area is a major storm for that region especially when impacting rush hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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