djr5001 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 DT's last call is up. notice how his 1-2" and 2-4" line runs right through State College and Pittsburgh, the 2-4" and 3-6" line through Harrisburg, and 3-6" and 4-8" line right through York/Lancaster? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 notice how his 1-2" and 2-4" line runs right through State College and Pittsburgh, the 2-4" and 3-6" line through Harrisburg, and 3-6" and 4-8" line right through York/Lancaster? lol Speaking of bad maps: I love how they made sure to differentiate between zones that could max at 9" and zones that could max at 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Ya, the ratios seemed pretty wacky to me. Still, the average of all the members with <3.0°F average error at those cities gives 0.25" for State College... I'd be more than happy with 0.25" liquid equivalent (3-4 inches of snow). Of course, for now, I'm going to stick with the global models and expect around 1". That was a great analysis of the SREFs. I was just doing a basic lookover between the QPF mean and the snowfall mean and had noticed they have looked really, really high with SLR's. Good analysis. It's pretty clear the SREF is out to lunch with the snow-liquid ratios. Here is a graphic showing the climatological distribution of snow ratios for the CTP CWA. Even 25:1 ratios are exceptionally rare, forget anything above 30:1. I don't see anything that supports ratios above 15:1 for UNV, especially with the best lift above where temperatures are in the dendritic snow growth zone. It may be slightly higher farther south where the lift is stronger and a bit lower in the atmosphere where temperatures will be around -15C. Agreed with this too, I think there will be a corridor of up to 20:1 ratios that will likely involve the border counties and probably even more so northern MD/DC as well where good omegas are really matching up well with that more ideal -12 to -16C range according to the model forecasts. I guess where that ideal corridor ends up could be up to debate depending on how well the cold air pushes southeast. Sites like MDT and AOO dont have as much lift and it's residing where temps are generally -20 or lower. That would lead me to think SLR's more of the 15:1 variety or so might be a better number to base off of QPF numbers above the turnpike (above I-78 in eastern Penn). CTP seems to have a pretty good take on things with their forecast and headline placement currently. At the same time, it will be interesting to see if this dynamic system does in fact end up having areas with the very high ratios (ie: the 25-30:1 type stuff). Def a cold storm either way. I'll have a map out a little bit later this eve when some of the 21z/0z stuff is in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Speaking of bad maps: I love how they made sure to differentiate between zones that could max at 9" and zones that could max at 10" They should just say the name of an interstate and say X above and Y below. For tomorrow I'd say 2-4" between I-80 and I-76, 6" starts south of the M/D line. This isn't a redeveloper so hopefully there aren't any snow shadow areas around I-99. This should have more of a 2-12-06 type snow distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Speaking of bad maps: I love how they made sure to differentiate between zones that could max at 9" and zones that could max at 10" That map has me in the 6-9 zone so it's good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Heh. S&S... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Our RPM model finally pulled itself up off the barstool, and is back with consensus... And for a regional look.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Speaking of bad maps: I love how they made sure to differentiate between zones that could max at 9" and zones that could max at 10" Lol. So if you live at border of Lancaster and Chester you could see 4-8, 6-9, and 6-10. Where your house is will be critical to maybe seeing only 4 while your neighbor gets 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 DT's last call is up. Holy overlapping ranges haha, I guess one could see 4 inches in either the 2-4, the 3-6, or the 4-8 zone and the forecast would verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 im north so im screwed lol I guess you'll have to come down here for a beer and see all my snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Lol. So if you live at border of Lancaster and Chester you could see 4-8, 6-9, and 6-10. Where your house is will be critical to maybe seeing only 4 while your neighbor gets 10. Someone who isn't blocked from commenting on their facebook page should ask them what to expect in that location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Our RPM model finally pulled itself up off the barstool, and is back with consensus... Capture.JPG And for a regional look.... Capture.JPG if that .2 in State College verifies I might need a small ruler... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Someone who isn't blocked from commenting on their facebook page should ask them what to expect in that location. Lol. They need to survey their property to see if they could overlap all 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Most likely my final call. I may tweak a bit before I post on my site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Someone who isn't blocked from commenting on their facebook page should ask them what to expect in that location. Well that's not me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Allweather thanks for sharing! Is the GFS showing snow the furthest north? With the Nam & CMC further south? Edit: Eastern map looks good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Lol state college rpm says get your cm rulers out!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Going to be cranking by mid-morning. You'd think we'd be in for a good one with a look like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Someone who isn't blocked from commenting on their facebook page should ask them what to expect in that location. Is there anybody left? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Our RPM model finally pulled itself up off the barstool, and is back with consensus... Capture.JPG And for a regional look.... Capture.JPG Thanks Matt, how often does that update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Our RPM model finally pulled itself up off the barstool, and is back with consensus... Capture.JPG And for a regional look.... Capture.JPG What ratios is it using in assessing the totals? With high QPF and banding, as well as the anomolous cold I think double digit totals are possible if not likely down this way. Obviously I want to make sure 0z runs hold or see if they trend any but I think 8-12 will be common down this way and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Most likely my final call. I may tweak a bit before I post on my site. snowforecast.jpg Great map! I think it will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Yeah I'm wondering what CTP is seeing as I posted their latest precip accumulation map that they had on facebook a bit ago. Compare that to the one AllWeather just posted and they're worlds apart. Furthermore, Joe Murgo from Altoona apparently delivered the same kind of message earlier in his 6:00 PM (considering the majority of his CWA was never really involved here but the southeastern part of his cwa is Blair, Huntingdon, Bedford, Fulton, Franklin -- all with advisories/warnings) that he didn't expect the WWA criteria to be met in the counties in the WWA and in the southern counties under WSW they may get to advisory-level criteria, but that would be closer to the border. Pretty far spread between 2 meteorologists during their broadcasts and CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Great map! I think it will verify. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 LWX just increased totals to 4-8"+ across the whole region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Thanks Matt, how often does that update? Usually updates with the NAM, as it is a NAM-ish product. So, every 6 hours...however, sometimes it will get pushed by WSI and will run again (or at least that's how it was explained to me). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 What ratios is it using in assessing the totals? With high QPF and banding, as well as the anomolous cold I think double digit totals are possible if not likely down this way. Obviously I want to make sure 0z runs hold or see if they trend any but I think 8-12 will be common down this way and south. I'm actually not sure what ratios are pre-programmed into it. I would bet a standard 10-12:1, but it could have snow ratios built into it. Not sure on that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Anyone else have light precip around 5. I couldn't even tell if it was rain or snow it was that fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Hoping for a little north shift to get us into the 3-6" zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Speaking of bad maps: I love how they made sure to differentiate between zones that could max at 9" and zones that could max at 10" I made a comment of their map earlier, love how their zones are 6-10 AND 6-9. An inch off and they are right by 30 miles .And they claim they are better then paid mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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