Atomixwx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Nao show me your map coded to fit the criteria of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security Terror Alert color code. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Nao show me your map coded to fit the criteria of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security Terror Alert color code. Mine already is. Do you realize how many gun toting anti-government rednecks roam the woods of the LSV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Can someone explain this map to me? I'm used to using the SREF plumes, and have never even looked at this from NCEP. It's the 21z SREF...24 hr QPF. Are the contours the mean solution and the "fill" are the deviations of the different runs from the mean? Thanks! Capture.JPG to my untrained eye, I've always took it as the contours represent possible areas of qpf, but the colored areas representing a blended/smoothed qpf (like an ensemble mean). JMO Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Can someone explain this map to me? I'm used to using the SREF plumes, and have never even looked at this from NCEP. It's the 21z SREF...24 hr QPF. Are the contours the mean solution and the "fill" are the deviations of the different runs from the mean? Thanks! Capture.JPG Yep, the contours are the mean precip and the fill indicates the spread from the mean, Members have a range of 0.25-0.50" of liquid QPF in a large portion of southeastern PA including the LSV and southern tier counties. Looks like 21z will be similar to the 15z. THV for example, on the 15z run had QPF range from the lowest member at 0.1" to the highest member printing out 1.1" and a mean of a bit over a half inch. That's a ton of spread for an event that figures to be 0.3-0.5" for the southern areas that should do the best in this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 SREF mean has gained 0.2" for LNS in the past 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Hurray, finally a concrete explanation on how the SREF works. So looks like the mean for UNV looks like 0.2ish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Have two cases of Shiner Bock straight from the brewery in Texas in my garage. Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 For those of you curious about my I-81 comments, I was referring to the fact that I-81 runs southwest to northeast from Mason-Dixon through Harrisburg before joining I-78 in Lebanon County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 For those of you curious about my I-81 comments, I was referring to the fact that I-81 runs southwest to northeast from Mason-Dixon through Harrisburg before joining I-78 in Lebanon County.Yup, kinda bothers me when people don't realize it is essentially E-W from Carlisle to HBG iirc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Hurray, finally a concrete explanation on how the SREF works. So looks like the mean for UNV looks like 0.2ish... Ya, 0.17" at the 'PSB' radar site just northwest of town (the NCEP site doesn't have a plot for State College or the airport). The 15z mean was actually a tiny bit juicier for us at 0.18", but probably a big reason for that was because of the loss of the 0.66" member. The wettest SREF member is now a more reasonable 0.46". The median is at 0.14" on the 21z run, which is the same as it was on the 15z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 00z NAM is a bit farther north with the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Not going to lie, kinda hate that NYC is in for another MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 NAM Crushes the border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Boy Harrisburg straddles the fence on the NAM. Dauphin Co. has .1 to .3 from North to south. North of a Lewistown to Linglestown line, time to stop watching this threat. State College, Williamsport and Scranton looking at less than an inch more than likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 00z NAM is a bit farther north with the precip. Still looks well south of the GFS and SREF and would make most of us in central PA very unhappy. I am having a very bad year watching my old house in Manchester MD get crushed time and time again while I get fringe city up here. I am starting to think this area gets its 35" avg with nickel and dime crap 1-3" at a time. For someone who only cares about big storms I have a feeling I am in a bad location. It's only one year though, if I can find a job up this way, moving to the Poconos, if not back to northern MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Boy Harrisburg straddles the fence on the NAM. Dauphin Co. has .1 to .3 from North to south. North of a Lewistown to Linglestown line, time to stop watching this threat. State College, Williamsport and Scranton looking at less than an inch more than likely. THe NAM is well south of most other guidance, GFS/SREF/ECMWF/RGEM however, it does bother me that it is insistent last few runs that the heavier banding will end up south, and I do buy the sharp cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 It's the NAM, been all over the place. Stick with what has been consistent. GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Still looks well south of the GFS and SREF and would make most of us in central PA very unhappy. I am having a very bad year watching my old house in Manchester MD get crushed time and time again while I get fringe city up here. I am starting to think this area gets its 35" avg with nickel and dime crap 1-3" at a time. For someone who only cares about big storms I have a feeling I am in a bad location. It's only one year though, if I can find a job up this way, moving to the Poconos, if not back to northern MD. Yea man, if you live up here you have to love the nickel and dimes. If not you will be pretty disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Not going to lie, kinda hate that NYC is in for another MECS. I've expressed my frustrations at the seemingly new style of snowstorm over in the complaint thread already...but whatever. Back to our region and seeking the next threat (for those of us "north" of 81 - I understand what's meant now but still don't like the distinction tbqh) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I am starting to think this area gets its 35" avg with nickel and dime crap 1-3" at a time. For someone who only cares about big storms I have a feeling I am in a bad location I feel your pain, I really do. I'm quite well known for not much caring for snow and winter, so I really cannot stand the nickle and dime, slop up the roads for nothing, events. If I have to put up with snow, then I want it to be worthwhile, like to the tune of an 8-12 inch event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Still looks well south of the GFS and SREF and would make most of us in central PA very unhappy. I am having a very bad year watching my old house in Manchester MD get crushed time and time again while I get fringe city up here. I am starting to think this area gets its 35" avg with nickel and dime crap 1-3" at a time. For someone who only cares about big storms I have a feeling I am in a bad location. It's only one year though, if I can find a job up this way, moving to the Poconos, if not back to northern MD. Come back to Baltimore for work, and buy a house here is southern york county. It's like Manchester but cheaper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I feel your pain, I really do. I'm a quite well known for not much caring for snow and winter, so I really cannot stand the nickle and dime, slop up the roads for nothing, events. If I have to put up with snow, then I want it to be worthwhile, like to the tune of an 8-12 inch event. Voyager, you summed up my thoughts exactly. If there is something I hate it's 15 degrees and a light pointless snow falling making travel bad but not enough to cause delays. Give me a 6 plus inch high impact storm or warm weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 THe NAM is well south of most other guidance, GFS/SREF/ECMWF/RGEM however, it does bother me that it is insistent last few runs that the heavier banding will end up south, and I do buy the sharp cutoff. NAM does seem to want to be farther south than most guidance. I've also noticed that over the past two storms where banding actually occurred, the best omegas were actually placed farther north than guidance plotted leading into the event. As a result, the surface banding structures were farther north, and areas that weren't expected to a moderate snow were able to cash in. Just my two cents, and something I am watching here. It happened several times last year. My general rule of thumb is you want to be where the best omegas cross the -10 850 line. As per the NAM & GFS, that area is right around/just north of the Mason-Dixon Line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 NAM Crushes the border If you zoom that map in, count 7 different shades in York county alone! What a gradient it will be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Still looks well south of the GFS and SREF and would make most of us in central PA very unhappy. I am having a very bad year watching my old house in Manchester MD get crushed time and time again while I get fringe city up here. I am starting to think this area gets its 35" avg with nickel and dime crap 1-3" at a time. For someone who only cares about big storms I have a feeling I am in a bad location. It's only one year though, if I can find a job up this way, moving to the Poconos, if not back to northern MD. I must say that I do feel sorry for you. I must say that I am spoiled when it comes to snow. Being born in the Laurel Highlands and getting blessed with about 65 inches on average. I must say that if I didn't live where I do I wold probably feel like some off you guys do. I hope you get a nice solid snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Ya, 0.17" at the 'PSB' radar site just northwest of town (the NCEP site doesn't have a plot for State College or the airport). The 15z mean was actually a tiny bit juicier for us at 0.18", but probably a big reason for that was because of the loss of the 0.66" member. The wettest SREF member is now a more reasonable 0.46". The median is at 0.14" on the 21z run, which is the same as it was on the 15z run. I'm still intrigued with the tremendous snow ratios the SREFs keep cranking out, even if they're probably out of touch in that regard. PSB has a snowfall mean of 5" to go with that 0.17" QPF mean, or an average of 29 to 1. Still lot of members over 30:1. Averages like 24 to 1 down in MDT and THV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 New Map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Again, what is CTP seeing that others aren't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Again, what is CTP seeing that others aren't. What are you seeing, is more the question. CTP doesn't just base their forecast on the NAM. No one does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 NWS forecast looks a bit overdone. Drop everything down a level, and only keep 6-8 for Lancaster and I think they'd be looking better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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