heavy_wx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Man 10/20 miles may make a huge difference with this one. 18z NAM has a heck if a drop off NW. Getting nervous here in Shippensburg! I wouldn't be surprised if there is a fairly sharp cut-off in precip rates north of the best banding. With frontogenetic circulations, there is rising motion on the warmer side of the boundary and sinking motion on the colder side (in order to restore thermal wind balance). The NAM has a fairly strong and deep frontogenetic circulation around 21z Tuesday which means there will likely be subsidence to the north. We'll have to wait and see exactly where the favored areas for banding will be as we get into the near-term forecast range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Where's the front hanging out at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 RGEM has a 992 L off of OC at 03z tomorrow night (10pm Tues) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Not a major storm by any means, indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 RGEM has a 992 L off of OC at 03z tomorrow night (10pm Tues) You have to think that if this is correct and the globals catch on or agree then corresponding qpf will increase in later runs. We are in MECS range down here a tick up would be a minor hecs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 You have to think that if this is correct and the globals catch on or agree then corresponding qpf will increase in later runs. We are in MECS range down here a tick up would be a minor hecs. This is said a lot on this board, but 00z EURO will be important. After the 00z runs tonight, you really want to switch into nowcasting mode. Watch, satellite, radar, obs, traffic cams, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 RGEM has a 992 L off of OC at 03z tomorrow night (10pm Tues) Moist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 RGEM shows extremely tight cutoff. Harrisburg on pins and needles again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 RGEM shows extremely tight cutoff. Harrisburg on pins and needles again. Mdt is fine with that image? No pins here a good 4 plus inch snowfall not sure what you trying to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 You have to think that if this is correct and the globals catch on or agree then corresponding qpf will increase in later runs. We are in MECS range down here a tick up would be a minor hecs. Whoa there...I'd have to imagine 10" would be the ceiling. Not really HECS territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yup. lol Here is RGEM though. From Mid Atlantic forum.... GFS is good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GFS says party hardy southern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 From Mid Atlantic forum.... GFS is good too. GFS has been as rock-steady as I've ever seen it with a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Well, here's hoping for some kind of surprise north trend. At least there are more threats after this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GFS has been as rock-steady as I've ever seen it with a storm. About damn time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Well, here's hoping for some kind of surprise north trend. At least there are more threats after this... My thoughts exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 GFS says party hardy southern tier. rolled18Zgfs1:20:14.jpg Shazammm!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I need to move my house into the apple fields south of Biglerville. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm calling it north trend at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I need to move my house into the apple fields south of Biglerville. Damn. Haha. Say around Cashtown. You're right, not much down here but farms and orchards but I don't mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I'm calling it north trend at 0z I need to move my house into the apple fields south of Biglerville. Damn. Your fine enjoy the snow tomorrow canderson nice mod event for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 My thoughts exactly. If you had to pick one of those threats out Jamie...which one looks best? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 OK, so I just got home from being in the truck all day and haven't had time to really look at models until now. If I'm seeing things right, the 18z GFS is showing 6 inches of snow even up my way in Tamaqua. Could this possibly happen? Are things still ticking northward? All I know is that Wednesday morning is going to be quite interesting if we have temps close to zero with 6 inches of snow being whipped around by the wind. Might be a good day to take a vacation day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 OK, so I just got home from being in the truck all day and haven't had time to really look at models until now. If I'm seeing things right, the 18z GFS is showing 6 inches of snow even up my way in Tamaqua. Could this possibly happen? Are things still ticking northward? All I know is that Wednesday morning is going to be quite interesting if we have temps close to zero with 6 inches of snow being whipped around by the wind. Might be a good day to take a vacation day... You are right on the edge, but yes the trend is definitely colder and snowier even up your way. South of I-81 looks to be the big winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Review of 18Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 You are right on the edge, but yes the trend is definitely colder and snowier even up your way. South of I-81 looks to be the big winner. Thank you sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Joe, was it with you and "south of 81" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 So I just did an analysis of the 15z SREF's 21z temperatures at various sites, specifically ORD, LAF, GRR, DTW, CMH, CLE, ERI, and IPT to get a sample on both sides of the "Arctic front". The idea was to see how the different members are handling the front. The members with the best temperature forecasts (average error below 3.0°F) are... ARW3/ARN2 ARW4/ARP1 ARW5/ARP2 ARW6/ARN3 NMM3/NMN2 NMM4/NMP1 NMM6/NMP3 NMB1/MBCN NMB4/MBP1 NMB7/MBP3 The members with the worst temperature forecasts (average error at or above 4.0°F) are... ARW7/ARP3 NMM2/NMN1 NMM5/NMP2 NMB2/MBN1 NMB3/MBN2 NMB6/MBN3 The bold ones are doing exceptionally poorly, with average errors at or above 6.0°F. For fun, I also gave each member a weight based on how well they are doing and calculated a weighted mean precip and snow forecast for PSB (nearest to KUNV). That method gives a mean precip of 0.19", and a mean snowfall of 6.2". What I found very odd/interesting is how extreme of snow ratios the SREFs are generally forecasting. Of the 17 members that forecast any snow at PSB, only three members have ratios of less than 25:1 (8, 16, and 20). Four have ratios of 40:1 or better (40, 40, 44, 45). The weighted-mean ratio turned out to be 32:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 WGAL now going 8"+ from Mason-Dixon south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Joe, was it with you and "south of 81" lol Yes. South of I-81. Whats funny? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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