NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yes. South of I-81. Whats funny? 81 is a north to south interstate...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I was just watching wgal. Nice map Matt (ALLWEATHER). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 South of 78 would be more fitting I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 81 is a north to south interstate...? South of 78 would be more fitting I think? 81 cuts NE through the LSV, so it's not totally illogical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 So I just did an analysis of the 15z SREF's 21z temperatures at various sites, specifically ORD, LAF, GRR, DTW, CMH, CLE, ERI, and IPT to get a sample on both sides of the "Arctic front". The idea was to see how the different members are handling the front. The members with the best temperature forecasts (average error below 3.0°F) are... ARW3/ARN2 ARW4/ARP1 ARW5/ARP2 ARW6/ARN3 NMM3/NMN2 NMM4/NMP1 NMM6/NMP3 NMB1/MBCN NMB4/MBP1 NMB7/MBP3 The members with the worst temperature forecasts (average error at or above 4.0°F) are... ARW7/ARP3 NMM2/NMN1 NMM5/NMP2 NMB2/MBN1 NMB3/MBN2 NMB6/MBN3 The bold ones are doing exceptionally poorly, with average errors at or above 6.0°F. SREFanalysis.png For fun, I also gave each member a weight based on how well they are doing and calculated a weighted mean precip and snow forecast for PSB (nearest to KUNV). That method gives a mean precip of 0.19", and a mean snowfall of 6.2". What I found very odd/interesting is how extreme of snow ratios the SREFs are generally forecasting. Of the 17 members that forecast any snow at PSB, only three members have ratios of less than 25:1 (8, 16, and 20). Four have ratios of 40:1 or better (40, 40, 44, 45). The weighted-mean ratio turned out to be 32:1. Good analysis. It's pretty clear the SREF is out to lunch with the snow-liquid ratios. Here is a graphic showing the climatological distribution of snow ratios for the CTP CWA. Even 25:1 ratios are exceptionally rare, forget anything above 30:1. I don't see anything that supports ratios above 15:1 for UNV, especially with the best lift above where temperatures are in the dendritic snow growth zone. It may be slightly higher farther south where the lift is stronger and a bit lower in the atmosphere where temperatures will be around -15C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Good thing i'm 4 blocks south of I 81 :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 I was just watching wgal. Nice map Matt (ALLWEATHER). Thanks. I will post it on here later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Good analysis. It's pretty clear the SREF is out to lunch with the snow-liquid ratios. Here is a graphic showing the climatological distribution of snow ratios for the CTP CWA. Even 25:1 ratios are exceptionally rare, forget anything above 30:1. I don't see anything that supports ratios above 15:1 for UNV, especially with the best lift above where temperatures are in the dendritic snow growth zone. It may be slightly higher farther south where the lift is stronger and a bit lower in the atmosphere where temperatures will be around -15C. Ya, the ratios seemed pretty wacky to me. Still, the average of all the members with <3.0°F average error at those cities gives 0.25" for State College... I'd be more than happy with 0.25" liquid equivalent (3-4 inches of snow). Of course, for now, I'm going to stick with the global models and expect around 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Nice to see real mets on eve broadcast on wgal instead of a weather guy. Not naming a name.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Definitely would like to see a northwest trend tonight. Just to be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Definitely would like to see a northwest trend tonight. Just to be safe. It's coming brother I can feel it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 It's coming brother I can feel it By the way, the mean of the "good" SREFs at IPT is 0.20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 It's coming brother I can feel it The last time you "felt" anything, you canceled a storm at 1:00 pm and then got dumped on to the tune of 9 inches. You can keep your feelings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Good thing i'm 4 blocks south of I 81 :/ im north so im screwed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Thanks. I will post it on here later this evening. Map looks good. Are you on for the late night shift ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 LOL ohhh Atomix you're right though, chances are good for a slip south east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Map looks good. Are you on for the late night shift ? Yupp! I'll be chatting with you guys while the 00z's come in! As you can imagine, things around here get crazy when snow is in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 The last time you "felt" anything, you canceled a storm at 1:00 pm and then got dumped on to the tune of 9 inches. You can keep your feelings :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Yupp! I'll be chatting with you guys while the 00z's come in! As you can imagine, things around here get crazy when snow is in the forecast. Good talk at 6:20 about snow bands setting up and people may overperform or underperform. So many people think a forecast is a bust if they get an inch or two less then someone 10 miles from them in these type of systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Someone just posted on FB that this storm is looking like a bust because there is nothing on radar to our south yet... man people are clueless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Facebook is lowering weather IQ by the masses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 DT's last call is up. CTP on Facebook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Here's my latest call...I will likely trim that northern edge of the coating-2" back farther south, depending on what 00z suites say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Good talk at 6:20 about snow bands setting up and people may overperform or underperform. So many people think a forecast is a bust if they get an inch or two less then someone 10 miles from them in these type of systems. Thanks! I agree. Those meso-banding structures will be able to tap into some awesome SLR's which could result in some pretty good lollipops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Someone just posted on FB that this storm is looking like a bust because there is nothing on radar to our south yet... man people are clueless. its like when people start asking where the snow is when a warning or advisory starts at say 4:00 and it is not precipitating at 4:01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Going to be cranking by mid-morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 its like when people start asking where the snow is when a warning or advisory starts at say 4:00 and it is not precipitating at 4:01 The thing I hate the most is when I post my forecast, then someone asks what they are getting. I am like there is a map right there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Temperature down to 38.7 now with a chilly north wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Facebook is lowering weather IQ by the masses. Yeah...any online stuff is bad. Thing is, a lot of people really don't understand how weather works. Makes it even harder to communicate risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 20, 2014 Share Posted January 20, 2014 Just wondering how are them strong winds going to effect this storm? Delware is going to get hit pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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