Voyager Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 0z NAM, to my untrained eye anyway, shows no precip until after the surface warms to the low to mid 30's. If correct, any freezing rain would be negligible. It also looks like it shuts off the FROPA precip before surface temps crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Down to 10 now with a dew point of 7. This set-up is going to be really interesting regardless of what the models are saying. When the clouds come in overnight they will lock in the cold temps initially, making any rise in temps very slow. And, now many of us have to rise over 20 degrees just to reach freezing! I agree with Zak...I think the cold holds a lot longer than currently forecast. We will see soon enough. Just be sure to be careful once the zr begins on the roads. They are really cold now and aren't going to warm up as quickly as the air does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Down to 10 now with a dew point of 7. This set-up is going to be really interesting regardless of what the models are saying. When the clouds come in overnight they will lock in the cold temps initially, making any rise in temps very slow. And, now many of us have to rise over 20 degrees just to reach freezing! I agree with Zak...I think the cold holds a lot longer than currently forecast. We will see soon enough. Just be sure to be careful once the zr begins on the roads. They are really cold now and aren't going to warm up as quickly as the air does. That's not necessarily true. I remember an event back in the 90's when Allentown started of with freezing rain in the low teens and within 3-4 hours was above freezing. I'm not saying this event is anything similar, but I wouldn't underestimate WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 That's not necessarily true. I remember an event back in the 90's when Allentown started of with freezing rain in the low teens and within 3-4 hours was above freezing. I'm not saying this event is anything similar, but I wouldn't underestimate WAA. Absolutely...I've said more than once over the past 40 years "there's no way it will warm up that much" only to see it...warm up that much. Or more. I recall times when temps would rise 20 or more degrees very quickly...but yes...it depends on a lot of factors and may or may not apply tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 That's not necessarily true. I remember an event back in the 90's when Allentown started of with freezing rain in the low teens and within 3-4 hours was above freezing. I'm not saying this event is anything similar, but I wouldn't underestimate WAA. Depends on location. IMBY, I'm always skeptical of any WAA, based on past experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 One thing's for sure, in the Wyoming Valley, WAA is vicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 0z NAM, to my untrained eye anyway, shows no precip until after the surface warms to the low to mid 30's. If correct, any freezing rain would be negligible. It also looks like it shuts off the FROPA precip before surface temps crash. GFS vs. NAM. GFS has around an inch or so while NAM has nothing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 That's not necessarily true. I remember an event back in the 90's when Allentown started of with freezing rain in the low teens and within 3-4 hours was above freezing. I'm not saying this event is anything similar, but I wouldn't underestimate WAA. How did you get the Wunderground thing on your sig? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Looks like this cold shot isn't going to last long...40s again by the end of the week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 All the way down to 6ºF here at this hour, I see my point and click was calling for a near steady temp around 24ºF... haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 5.7 imby, but I doubt we see much ice as precip. holds off until after big warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Depends on location. IMBY, I'm always skeptical of any WAA, based on past experience. I agree Jamie. Lately, some valley areas the cold seems to be difficult to scour out...and each storm and set up is different, but, in the Lehigh Valley, and even here in Tamaqua, I've seen some pretty fast rises in WAA events in the past. How did you get the Wunderground thing on your sig? Go to your local town, and and about 3/4 of the way down the page is an area where it says "Free weather stickers for your homepage". Click on the image and it brings up a new page with a bunch of obs stickers. Right click on the one of your choice, and select "view image info". Click and drag on the location link and right click. Hit copy, then paste it in your signature option in "My Settings" here at AMWX 5.7 imby, but I doubt we see much ice as precip. holds off until after big warm up. I thought it would at least be overcast this morning, but I went outside and it's crystal clear. Temp is down to +2 at 5:30AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Looks like this cold shot isn't going to last long...40s again by the end of the week... Typical of this winter although below normal days have outnumbered above normal days 2 to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 3.2 degrees. I figured temps would rise overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Wow -2 this morning it wasn't supposed to get this cold. Something tells me the rain later will instantly freeze on the very cold ground and roads, even after we nude slowing above freezing. Especially in the colder valley's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 This will be a good day to use my infrared thermometer to check the temperature of surfaces before the rain comes. Looks like some cooler areas could get significant ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 MDT keeps busting way above forecast; last night's low was 10. I had 6 as my low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 I had 5 for a low this morning. It's starting to cloud up some and we still have a lot of snow pack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 3.8* this morning. 7.7* now and starting to cloud up. If the precip. ever gets here I'm thinking Houston we may have a problem. All the trees have that frozen white look to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 MDT keeps busting way above forecast; last night's low was 10. I had 6 as my low. Don't you mean way BELOW forecast? In any case I dropped to 5 this morning which was 10 degrees below the forecast. Like others I was expecting to wake up to overcast skies, not virtually clear skies. My temp is skyrocketing upward now, all the way to 21. Dew Point around 14 degrees means when the precip starts there should be a drop in temps at least a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 5, 2014 Author Share Posted January 5, 2014 What really angers me is that we have a perfect air-mass in place, really a good taste of winter, and there is no blocking. We are wasting cold air and a perfect opportunity for an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 10.6 here, only problem no precip lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 What really angers me is that we have a perfect air-mass in place, really a good taste of winter, and there is no blocking. We are wasting cold air and a perfect opportunity for an ice storm.Oh well, ice is to dangerous anyhow. I'll take any amount of snow, or 33 and rain if snow is a no go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Don't you mean way BELOW forecast? In any case I dropped to 5 this morning which was 10 degrees below the forecast. Like others I was expecting to wake up to overcast skies, not virtually clear skies. My temp is skyrocketing upward now, all the way to 21. Dew Point around 14 degrees means when the precip starts there should be a drop in temps at least a little bit. I could've sworn last night' slow was around 5. Maybe I'm confusing it with the previous night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Warming rapidly now in advance of the incoming cloud deck. Up to 21 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Typical of this winter although below normal days have outnumbered above normal days 2 to 1. Looks like this cold shot isn't going to last long...40s again by the end of the week... Yeah its frustrating taken at face value, but I agree with Jamie, it seems we get a 5-7 day warmup sandwhcihed between a 10-14 day at or below average stretch. It sure beats those years that a bad pattern persists for weeks on end with transient periods of a decent pattern in between. I'd be happy to see those trends continue, and at least as of now they appear to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Heading to near Watertown, NY tomorrow to see 3 feet of snow. Wooo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Even though we got colder than expected last night, we're offsetting that with bright sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Yeah its frustrating taken at face value, but I agree with Jamie, it seems we get a 5-7 day warmup sandwhcihed between a 10-14 day at or below average stretch. It sure beats those years that a bad pattern persists for weeks on end with transient periods of a decent pattern in between. I'd be happy to see those trends continue, and at least as of now they appear to be. Yeah. Most winters have warmups in them. BTW, Pittsburgh has quietly become Snowburgh in the last 11 years. Since 2002-2003, y'all have had... 2 normal snowfall winters 3 below-normal snowfall winters 6 (!) above-normal snowfall winters During the infamous winter of 2011-2012, PIT got 36.9, not that far below the normal of 41.9. The 11 year average is a remarkable 49.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 5, 2014 Share Posted January 5, 2014 Even though we got colder than expected last night, we're offsetting that with bright sunshine. Most of us will only have a few more hours of sunshine, and it's already cloudy in York/Lancaster, so part of our group doesn't have the sunshine you do. In fact, freezing rain has already started in the southern part of the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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