Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 21z/0z/3z/6z for DPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Alek's fav Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Depending on what method you use... Anywhere from 10.1-15.5" off the 0z NAM for ORD (0.68" QPF). 7.5-12.3" off the GFS (0.50" QPF). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 DVN and LOT might need to expand the advisory another tier south given the 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 A pretty disappointing analog comes to mind for this event. 1/20/12 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/32034-jan-20th-snow-event-part-2/page-25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro is drier, enjoy everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro total qpf through 84hrs Dtx ftw? EDIT: phone battery is low but note that it is charging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Nice, hm8. Was just about to post that. Looks like you need to charge your phone now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro is drier, enjoy everyone. Yeah the trend of the season continues. We peak around 60hrs out moisture wise, only to dry out by 24hrs out. It's looking like any system with real moisture this year will unfortunately be associated with precip type issues much like the last storm. So far it's been a season of loser storm systems. For those of us who aren't blessed to be living within 15 miles of a giant freshwater lake this season is looking pretty bleak at this point when it comes to significant events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yeah the trend of the season continues. We peak around 60hrs out moisture wise, only to dry out by 24hrs out. It's looking like any system with real moisture this year will unfortunately be associated with precip type issues much like the last storm. So far it's been a season of loser storm systems. For those of us who aren't blessed to be living within 15 miles of a giant freshwater lake this season is looking pretty bleak at this point when it comes to significant events. Yes, this pattern needs to be changed, but until this -EPO goes away expect more of the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Only system here that over performed was the one on Christmas Day - evening. And that was a total surprise and fairly localized. I fear the LES is the only thing that will keep the expectations of 6"+ here alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro total qpf through 84hrs EDIT: phone battery is low but note that it is charging Being conservative 3 days out almost always wins. GRR went from 6-8" in the FD to 3-6". 3-6 still looks good for their far S. Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sc2man13 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm normally a big weenie for snow, but tomorrow I am playing a gig in Uptown at 8 and then heading to the Rockford area for a party at 10. I wouldn't mind for once to be disappointed here due to my travel plans. I hate to bother anyone, but how heavy is the precip/wind going to be in the 10-1130 timeframe in northeast IL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yes, this pattern needs to be changed, but until this -EPO goes away expect more of the same. Well without the -EPO, the raging +AO/NAO would be disastrous for us. But if we want to see some decent storm formation, we need the Atlantic to cooperate. The models do bring down the AO anomaly closer to neutral; however, we still lack warm stratospheric temperatures and no sign of any SSW yet. Its more of a hybrid La Nada pattern right now and has been since November. Another dried up piece of sh!t storm lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Looks like 6z nam is back north? Just as DTX reduced our snowfall by 75%.. LOL.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Looks like 6z nam is back north? North and wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 LOL welcome back north NAM, DTW jackpot and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 The nam is a mess with the energy. It is just nasty at H5. Maybe it is right and the models should be a sloppy disaster with the vort energy coming out of the NW. I doubt it tho given the decent Jet on the Backside of the trough. I would think the energy would consolidate a bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 What a season thus far, seriously. If this hair loss pattern continues, I may have to purchase Rogaine pretty soon, lmao. I don't remember a year like this where we have to wait until nowcasting....smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 LOT going 5-7" in max band along I-88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 lol the NAM, just had to get my hopes up again. Its not over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Despite all the wobbles in track, virtually every model, with every blip in QPF and track has maintained at least 6" for northern Ohio. At this point, my biggest concern is that this thing trends much drier versus a miss in either direction. CLE: THERE IS STILL A BIT OFUNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW BUT ALL MODELSINDICATE THAT THE HEAVIER SWATH OF SNOW WILL BE ACROSS NORTH OHIOINTO NW PA. WE HAVE MODIFIED THE AREA OF THE WINTER STORM WATCHSLIGHTLY IN AN ATTEMPT TO GIVE BETTER TIMING OF THE STORM SYSTEMACROSS THE REGION. AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL SPREADINTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. ASWINDS BECOME NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THERE WILLLIKELY BE SOME ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOWFALL AS MOISTURE IS PULLEDOFF OF LAKE ERIE. THIS COULD PROVIDE FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTSFOR ALL LOCATIONS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSSNE OHIO. AS THE STORM EXITS ON THURSDAY THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILLLIKELY FOCUS FROM ASHTABULA COUNTY WESTWARD TO LORAIN AND ASHLANDCOUNTIES. BY THE TIME THE STORM ENDS MANY LOCATIONS WILL LIKELYRECEIVE 6 TO 10 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER WHERE THE BEST LAKEENHANCED SNOWFALL OCCURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 6z nam hi res = yes please one of the more epic west side LE signatures i've seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 everything else = zzzzzz LOT going with 4 and change synoptic (6" lolls) and 1-3 LE. sounds good. If LE can deliver 3" (which is high for this side of the lake but far from unheard of) my 6.999996" call might nail it. SREF up to 9 and change with decent number of big dogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 I'm normally a big weenie for snow, but tomorrow I am playing a gig in Uptown at 8 and then heading to the Rockford area for a party at 10. I wouldn't mind for once to be disappointed here due to my travel plans. I hate to bother anyone, but how heavy is the precip/wind going to be in the 10-1130 timeframe in northeast IL? bad timing and I live on the border of Uptown and Edgewater. LOT mentions the possibility of modest accums before midnight so, driving around 10 would probably be worst case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Euro is drier, enjoy everyone. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 My Indiana calls. Potential higher for FWA and SBN, especially SBN if the fgen snows over perform. Might be too bullish for LAF as we're stuck in no man's land between the initial banding...and the follow up wave that passes to the south. With that, IND may have a chance to go a little higher if the more "vigorous" wave #2 solutions pan out. FWA: 3-5" IND: 1-2" LAF: 1-2" OKK: 2-4" MIE: 2-4" SBN: 5-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 This mornings wave dropped 0.6" of sugary powder here (0.04" liquid). Looks like a long duration light snow dropping an additional 3-6" over 30-36 hours south of detroit, per dtx. If nothing else a winter wonderland by Thursday, but still hoping the NAM scores a coup (though even then I expect less qpf). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 Yes, this pattern needs to be changed, but until this -EPO goes away expect more of the same. Well without the -EPO, the raging +AO/NAO would be disastrous for us. But if we want to see some decent storm formation, we need the Atlantic to cooperate. The models do bring down the AO anomaly closer to neutral; however, we still lack warm stratospheric temperatures and no sign of any SSW yet. Its more of a hybrid La Nada pattern right now and has been since November. Another dried up piece of sh!t storm lol. Without the -EPO we would probably be sitting at +4 instead of -4 and be staring at open water on lakes and green grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 31, 2013 Share Posted December 31, 2013 QUICK NOTE OF CONTD FLUX WITH 06 UTC NAM BENT ON DOUBLING DOWN ACRS NRN TWO COUNTY TIER OF CWA WITH BOTH EVENTS...SEEMINGLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND ON FAST SIDE WITH MAJORITY OF SNOWFALL WED AND LARGELY DISMISSED. OVERALL...06 UTC NAM EXCLUDED... I don't want to burst the MI posters' bubble, but Pat Murphy at IWX says don't put your eggs in the NAM basket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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