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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II

buckeyefan1

By buckeyefan1,
in Southeastern States

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

18z gfs is not as cold for the 2/12 storm therefore a big ole rainstorm for NC/SC/Ga.

 

Edit: Looks like the high to the north is not as strong and the track of the sfc low is a little further west but there will be a lot of changes in upcoming runs.

 

 Indeed, the 18Z GFS is the first of the last eight (at least) GFS runs essentially not showing any sig. wintry precip. for anyone in the SE US verbatim within 2/11-13. As mentioned/suggested, the high is weaker and the CAD isn't as impressive. We'll soon start to figure out if this is a new trend or if it is a hiccup. I don't think that it is common for a sfc low to head right over ATL into the CAD as occurs on the 18Z GFS. It may even be rare for all I know. So, this could very well be a hiccup. The last three Euro runs have had sig. wintry precip., mainly in NC. So, it is certainly not yet time to throw in the towel.

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

This may be like that little disturbance that passed through Thanksgiving eve!

Probably so. It is coming out of the same area through TX into the SE.

 

Latest rap trends seem to hold the vorticity together pretty well. Where as with the others seems to fade away into a weaker system. But over the next 12 hours precip should expand more across TX and see where it goes from there. But there is decent moisture over NM,TX atm.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Indeed, the 18Z GFS is the first of the last eight (at least) GFS runs essentially not showing any sig. wintry precip. for anyone in the SE US verbatim within 2/11-13. As mentioned/suggested, the high is weaker and the CAD isn't as impressive. We'll soon start to figure out if this is a new trend or if it is a hiccup. I don't think that it is common for a sfc low to head right over ATL into the CAD as occurs on the 18Z GFS. It may even be rare for all I know. So, this could very well be a hiccup. The last three Euro runs have had sig. wintry precip., mainly in NC. So, it is certainly not yet time to throw in the towel.

Folks,

Well, after examining MeteoStar output for the 18z GFS, I feel I need to backtrack somewhat on what I said earlier. Whereas I said that this run was the first GFS run of the last eight not showing significant wintry precip. for anywhere in the SE within 2/11-13, an examination of GSO (near Superjames' stomping grounds) reveals to me that they actually do get a decent amount of ZR. Any comments?

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GreensboroWx

GreensboroWx

Posted
Posted

I'm surprised there is no mention of the latest model runs for THIS Saturday in NC. The moisture is trending MUCH HIGHER for interior parts of NC which could lead to a bit of winter weather (mainly NW NC right now).  In fact the 15z SREF really dumps a lot of moisture across the entire SE. Most of it is a very cold rain, but some areas could get lucky on the northern and northwest fringes!!

 

This latest winter pattern reminds me a lot of the epic Jan 2000 ( I think) snowfall for CLT, RAH, GSO, etc. Everybody was focused on another shortwave when the actual storm developed "out of no where." 

 

Now, I'm not suggesting another repeat, but sometimes we need to focus on what's in front of our face instead of what we can't see yet.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

I'm surprised there is no mention of the latest model runs for THIS Saturday in NC. The moisture is trending MUCH HIGHER for interior parts of NC which could lead to a bit of winter weather (mainly NW NC right now).  In fact the 15z SREF really dumps a lot of moisture across the entire SE. Most of it is a very cold rain, but some areas could get lucky on the northern and northwest fringes!!

 

This latest winter pattern reminds me a lot of the epic Jan 2000 ( I think) snowfall for CLT, RAH, GSO, etc. Everybody was focused on another shortwave when the actual storm developed "out of no where." 

 

Now, I'm not suggesting another repeat, but sometimes we need to focus on what's in front of our face instead of what we can't see yet.

:weenie: JK :)

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Spidyr2k

Spidyr2k

Posted
Posted

I'm surprised there is no mention of the latest model runs for THIS Saturday in NC. The moisture is trending MUCH HIGHER for interior parts of NC which could lead to a bit of winter weather (mainly NW NC right now).  In fact the 15z SREF really dumps a lot of moisture across the entire SE. Most of it is a very cold rain, but some areas could get lucky on the northern and northwest fringes!!

 

This latest winter pattern reminds me a lot of the epic Jan 2000 ( I think) snowfall for CLT, RAH, GSO, etc. Everybody was focused on another shortwave when the actual storm developed "out of no where." 

 

Now, I'm not suggesting another repeat, but sometimes we need to focus on what's in front of our face instead of what we can't see yet.

Oooooo....The Carolina Crusher! Brick will have a hissy fit if it even comes close to that one. Thanx for pointing this out! (fingers crossed)  If Fischel suggests a dusting for Saturday around here.......

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

 

This latest winter pattern reminds me a lot of the epic Jan 2000 ( I think) snowfall for CLT, RAH, GSO, etc. Everybody was focused on another shortwave when the actual storm developed "out of no where." 

 

 

Just like the time back in May 162,000,000 BC when everyone was looking at the T-Rex and an Apatosaurus came "out of nowhere" and squashed them flat. 

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tnweathernut

tnweathernut

Posted
Posted

I'm surprised there is no mention of the latest model runs for THIS Saturday in NC. The moisture is trending MUCH HIGHER for interior parts of NC which could lead to a bit of winter weather (mainly NW NC right now). In fact the 15z SREF really dumps a lot of moisture across the entire SE. Most of it is a very cold rain, but some areas could get lucky on the northern and northwest fringes!!

This latest winter pattern reminds me a lot of the epic Jan 2000 ( I think) snowfall for CLT, RAH, GSO, etc. Everybody was focused on another shortwave when the actual storm developed "out of no where."

Now, I'm not suggesting another repeat, but sometimes we need to focus on what's in front of our face instead of what we can't see yet.

I mentioned it a couple if days ago.....i hope someone over that way scores.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

Strong thunderstorms along the gulf coast FTW?

Strong thunderstorms along the gulf coast FTW?

You got me to look at radar. No thunderstorms from a stationary arctic front draped across the GOM shoreline like in 2000. Remember a shortwave minor event came through 48 hours before the crusher putting down about .15 mostly freezing rain. Cold air was in place and another northern stream shortwave dropped into the leftover front and that's what set off the fireworks.

However looking at radar and seeing the snow flying back in TX, OK, NM looks like the old days pre internet/model access. When you would see that depiction you would perk up. Has that look tonight and it's been a long time since I've seen it. Definitely first time this year that I can recall.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

You got me to look at radar. No thunderstorms from a stationary arctic front draped across the GOM shoreline like in 2000. Remember a shortwave minor event came through 48 hours before the crusher putting down about .15 mostly freezing rain. Cold air was in place and another northern stream shortwave dropped into the leftover front and that's what set off the fireworks.

However looking at radar and seeing the snow flying back in TX, OK, NM looks like the old days pre internet/model access. When you would see that depiction you would perk up. Has that look tonight and it's been a long time since I've seen it. Definitely first time this year that I can recall.

I remember watching TWC back in the day, seeing the snow and ice in TX, knowing it was going east. Now, it goes from TX to MO to PA to NY to MA, or it fizzles out. Every. Single. Time.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

One thing to note is that it seems that the EPS jumped onboard with a snowier solution for the potential storm next week.  Looks like it caved to the GEFS in many ways in the LR with a colder look  For example, the Euro ensemble mean was showing almost nothing for GSO at 00z last night, but the mean is up to 3.5" now on the 12z run.  There's a few big dogs on there, too.  The ensemble mean for the weekend potential is ~1".

 

EPS rough means for various cities for next week:

Greensboro: 3.5"

Charlotte: 2.5"

Raleigh: 1.75"

Asheville: 4"

Boone: 5"

Greenville, SC: 2.25"

Columbia: 0.25"

Chatanooga: 1"

 

There's nothing really notable (>1") south of upstate SC that I can tell.

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WidreMann

WidreMann

Posted
Posted

One thing to note is that it seems that the EPS jumped onboard with a snowier solution for the potential storm next week.  Looks like it caved to the GEFS in many ways in the LR with a colder look  For example, the Euro ensemble mean was showing almost nothing for GSO at 00z last night, but the mean is up to 3.5" now on the 12z run.  There's a few big dogs on there, too.  The ensemble mean for the weekend potential is ~1".

 

EPS rough means for various cities for next week:

Greensboro: 3.5"

Charlotte: 2.5"

Raleigh: 1.75"

Asheville: 4"

Boone: 5"

Greenville, SC: 2.25"

Columbia: 0.25"

Chatanooga: 1"

 

There's nothing really notable (>1") south of upstate SC that I can tell.

1.75" for RDU sounds about right. That's a big storm these days.
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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

One thing to note is that it seems that the EPS jumped onboard with a snowier solution for the potential storm next week. Looks like it caved to the GEFS in many ways in the LR with a colder look For example, the Euro ensemble mean was showing almost nothing for GSO at 00z last night, but the mean is up to 3.5" now on the 12z run. There's a few big dogs on there, too. The ensemble mean for the weekend potential is ~1".

EPS rough means for various cities for next week:

Greensboro: 3.5"

Charlotte: 2.5"

Raleigh: 1.75"

Asheville: 4"

Boone: 5"

Greenville, SC: 2.25"

Columbia: 0.25"

Chatanooga: 1"

There's nothing really notable (>1") south of upstate SC that I can tell.

I bet a lot of that for CAE, GSP, CLT, and RDU is really ZR. CAE's 0.25" may be just about all ZR.

Let's see if Goofy goes back to a more widespread NC/upstate SC storm at least.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

I bet a lot of that for CAE, GSP, CLT, and RDU is really ZR. CAE's 0.25" may be just about all ZR.

Let's see if Goofy goes back to a more widespread NC/upstate SC storm at least.

 

Are the WeatherBell Euro ensemble mean totals also plagued by the same issues with the snow algorithm that the operational maps are plagued with?

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Are the WeatherBell Euro ensemble mean totals also plagued by the same issues with the snow algorithm that the operational maps are plagued with?

Unfortunately, yes . :( Shawn and I recently figured this out. We didn't realize it when I was first looking at them for the 1/28-30 storm. However, we later figured out that each ensemble member is plagued with the same silly problem. Why the algorithm can include a line that requires 850's to be 0 C or colder is a mystery to us.

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rduwx

rduwx

Posted
Posted

0z gfs is back showing frozen precip for parts of NC on 2/12.  The high to the north is at 1028 like the 18z run but on the 0z run it's not sliding of the coast a filtering in some good cold.  Really nice hit for NC.

 

Edit: I haven't checked any sounding but it looks to be a sn/ip mix.

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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

Posted
Posted

0z gfs is back showing frozen precip for parts of NC on 2/12.  The high to the north is at 1028 like the 18z run but on the 0z run it's not sliding of the coast a filtering in some good cold.  Really nice hit for NC.

 

Edit: I haven't checked any sounding but it looks to be a sn/ip mix.

Yep, really good...Miller A storm with enough suppression to get a lot of folks in the game. Looks like freezing rain to sleet/snow. Haven't checked soundings yet.

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

Posted
Posted

Looks like a "warm" winter storm to me.  Temps probably not too far from 30 in the western/northern piedmont.  Copious moisture though.

TW

 

 

Hickory shows it starting at around freezing but dropping into the mid 20's fairly quick, Greensboro actually about 34 degrees at onset.

 

 

 

gfs_t2m_east_57.png

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