burgertime Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Personally I'm waiting on Brother Ray AND Brother D-Von to both jump on board. Then, possibly, through a table. We'll see. All we've been getting is Brother A-Yon in the Impact Zone.....speaking of the GFS it's holding that southern energy better. Probably not going to do much but if it sets the track for the next storm with just a little more cold air we'll be in buisness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Well, if Brother Foothills and Brother Raleigh get on board, I'm all in. I'm waiting on Brother Brick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The good news is the 00z Euro op is running hot in the next crucial time period, 200hrs+, the OP 2mT both max and minimum are on the outskirts of the warmest ensemble members, possibly mishandling how much cold air is around when that second low we're watching rides up the coast. The current OP has 0c 850's all the way down to Panama City but the track of the OP low allows +15 C in NC...likely mishandling it. Something to watch. At least the teleconnections look somewhat good today on all models, with the NAO/AO trending negative and PNA on the up and up. We'll see if it holds. Winter isn't over, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 BL is horrible. That would be some damn cold rain Edit to add surface temps I actually think it would go from rain to snow after evaporatoinal cooling does it's job IF the nam is right on how much precip there is. It's a shame this doesn't come in the morning because it would no doubt be snow. But due to the horrible timing, temps do get into the 40s. However, wetbulb zero heights are low enough that i think there is a chance it would change over before ending. You can see the effects of this in places like columbia, who also start off very warm, but the nam has snow reaching the surface and dropping temps to near freezing before ending. In situations like this the models might not get a handle on such micro type situations/the cooling in a banding type situation (or the models are too slow in cooling the surface). However, the nam DOES show this happening all throughout central ga. Of course all of this is moot if you don't have a substantial amount of precip to actually reach the wetbulb throughout the column. The gfs, although wetter, wouldn't be enough. But if the nam is right with that much precip, there would likely be a stripe of snow somewhere..while it's raining to the north and south of that stripe of snow..as there is not enough precip to cool the column to the north and it's just too warm period to the south. Here is FFC's sounding. This would mean it's likely snowing at ffc or very close by. nam has temps dropping to 33 or so from around or just north of columbus to around or just north of augusta to columbia with warmer temps north and south. that means snow folks. But again that is if that much precip actually falls and the nam isn't too wet. And considering it is sort of all alone in being this wet, it probably is too wet. rgem shows a tenth..which wouldn't be enough either...or at best a few flakes or a little sleet mixed in but nothing of consequence. Date: 36 hour Eta valid 0Z FRI 7 FEB 14 Station: KFFC Latitude: 33.37 Longitude: -84.55 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0 1000 213 SFC 995 254 2.8 -0.3 80 3.1 1.5 303 3 276.3 277.0 274.9 286.6 3.75 2 950 626 0.0 -2.2 85 2.2 -0.9 325 6 277.2 277.8 274.9 286.7 3.43 3 900 1057 -2.0 -3.4 90 1.4 -2.5 315 8 279.5 280.0 276.0 288.7 3.31 4 850 1513 -1.2 -5.3 73 4.2 -2.8 294 12 284.9 285.5 278.4 293.6 3.02 5 800 1995 -2.1 -5.4 79 3.2 -3.4 276 14 288.9 289.4 280.6 298.2 3.20 6 750 2507 -2.4 -3.6 91 1.3 -2.9 252 23 294.0 294.7 283.6 305.5 3.89 7 700 3055 -2.6 -3.2 95 0.7 -2.9 238 40 299.7 300.4 286.2 312.6 4.30 8 650 3643 -3.6 -4.1 96 0.5 -3.8 241 53 304.9 305.7 288.1 318.2 4.33 9 600 4273 -5.9 -6.6 95 0.6 -6.2 243 66 309.2 310.0 289.2 321.5 3.90 10 550 4950 -10.0 -11.2 92 1.1 -10.5 242 75 312.2 312.7 289.3 321.7 2.96 11 500 5678 -14.4 -16.2 86 1.8 -15.0 240 79 315.5 315.9 289.5 322.5 2.15 12 450 6469 -19.5 -21.6 83 2.1 -20.0 237 82 318.8 319.0 289.9 323.9 1.51 13 400 7334 -25.5 -29.2 71 3.7 -26.2 240 84 321.8 322.0 290.2 324.8 0.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 If this ridging in the west is correct with that weak block showing, we have a chance next week, like 5%... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 As has been the case for 7-8+ runs in a row, here comes the system toward the SE US. Some precip. to start 2/11 PM on this run. Cold rain N GA. CAD about to get established. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Hmm, 12z looks like it's setting up pretty nicely with a low in texas, 50/50 low, and a bit of blocking for next week. Whatevs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 In comes the precip at 150. There go the 850s. We'll see where it goes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 As has been the case for 7-8+ runs in a row, here comes the system toward the SE US. Some precip. to start 2/11 PM on this run. Cold rain N GA. CAD about to get established. Late 2/11 into 2/12: Cold rain N GA. ZR/IP/S NC. Any snow changes to mostly ZR CAD regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 In comes the precip at 150. There go the 850s. We'll see where it goes.... Yep, but 2m temps appear to be below freezing...Not that it matters this far out. GFS advertising a long event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Too much junk in the trunk rolling through the northern stream. At least one of the waves gets through first, so we get a little confluence for a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yep, but 2m temps appear to be below freezing...Not that it matters this far out. GFS advertising a long event. Yeah, this is a nice, long duration ZR event as modeled mainly for NC. Starts as snow/mix late 2/11 and then to ZR that doesn't end all areas til early 2/13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yep, but 2m temps appear to be below freezing...Not that it matters this far out. GFS advertising a long event. Yeah, the upper air map doesn't look awful, so I agree with you that it looks like ice. Not to be a #coldrainbot, but at this point, I just want snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 At this range this might be the best potential look we have seen on the GFS all winter, if we can just get the low to track like last nights run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 This is a pretty nasty prolonged freezing rain/event for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 NavGEM verbatim has the 850 line running down I-40... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Eh, I don't really like how the cold air (at least in the upper levels) seems to be on the retreat as the storm comes in. Looks like a nice snow to ice storm as modelled. We've still got a long way to go, though. It's probably best not to get too invested in this LR threat unless you like eventual disappointment and failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 CMC a nice coastal, too warm, but hey it's a nice coastal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 This is a nasty event as shown on the 12z gfs. Showing frozen precip in a big portioin of NC from hr 153 to truncation. I really don't want that much ice so hopefully things will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yeah, this is a nice, long duration ZR event as modeled mainly for NC. Yep, buried in ice. Didn't we see this very thing last week? Maybe in association with a bigger storm, but the same sort of thing. What we have seen is confluence moving out of the NE more quickly than originally progged, another shortwave moving into the NE, messing up confluence, the southern wave not being as strong or as far south as originally modeled, and a nice winter storm for the midwest. Maybe this time, high pressure will trend stronger and last longer. Maybe this time, the southern wave will hold together and track south. Maybe this time, we'll get a huge winter storm. But I doubt it. In any case, the model shows another long duration ice storm a week + out, like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Yep, buried in ice. Didn't we see this very thing last week? Maybe in association with a bigger storm, but the same sort of thing. What we have seen is confluence moving out of the NE more quickly than originally progged, another shortwave moving into the NE, messing up confluence, the southern wave not being as strong or as far south as originally modeled, and a nice winter storm for the midwest. Maybe this time, high pressure will trend stronger and last longer. Maybe this time, the southern wave will hold together and track south. Maybe this time, we'll get a huge winter storm. But I doubt it. In any case, the model shows another long duration ice storm a week + out, like you said. Deja vu, this seem very familiar.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It is interesting that the NAVGEM and Canadian are now picking up on the weekend coastal that the Euro showed last night, Packbacker. Now we just need some more cold air to work with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 It is interesting that the NAVGEM and Canadian are now picking up on the weekend coastal that the Euro showed last night, Packbacker. Now we just need some more cold air to work with... The CMC/NAVGEM does have a much stronger VORT tracking to our south, it's what I was hoping this would do. Let's see what Euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 CMC is very Euroish, does paint some light snow in NW NC...it weakens the southern VORT a lot after 78 hours and you see another SLP to our NW (over WV) which ruins everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Would love to see that get colder and be snow instead of ice. But we have seen this before from the models showing a long ice event for this weekend, and that doesn't seem to be happening. It'll probably get warmer instead of colder and be all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Brothers, it seems like the GFS is going to reel us in 6-7 days out again jusssssst like this weekends event. Everyone was talking about Sundays storm was the best looking storm all season and setting up to have a CAD signature not seen in years. Well we all know where that's leading us. I'm trying to stay optimistic but it's hard when we keep getting fooled into believing the models beyond 6 days especially when all of them were agreeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The GFS drops temps down to the mid 20's with freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 The GFS drops temps down to the mid 20's with freezing rain Which event, next week? Even if they are duds, maybe we need a Friday storm discussion and one for next week? It's getting confusing at times with discussion about both mixed in here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Which event, next week? Even if they are duds, maybe we need a Friday storm discussion and one for next week? It's getting confusing at times with discussion about both mixed in here! Why is another thread needed? If people quit talking so about these fantasy storms if wouldn't get so confusing. Oh no gfs at 240 showing temps below 32 with half inch of ice. GFS at 150 looks great but no cold air. What are we going to do? brickbot... I'm tired of this cold miserable rain blah blah blah. Euro shows a bomb @ 240 yay... Can't tell people nothing if they choose not to listen. Thats the reason why you see these retarded moods swings. Just because it says one thing does not mean it will happen exactly on that date or scale. People on this board put too much emphasis in these fantasies. Its like the hot girl that will never give the time of day to you weather you're buttcrack ugly and loaded wallet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Why is another thread needed? If people quit talking so about these fantasy storms if wouldn't get so confusing. Oh no gfs at 240 showing temps below 32 with half inch of ice. GFS at 150 looks great but no cold air. What are we going to do? brickbot... I'm tired of this cold miserable rain blah blah blah. Euro shows a bomb @ 240 yay... Can't tell people nothing if they choose not to listen. Thats the reason why you see these retarded moods swings. Just because it says one thing does not mean it will happen exactly on that date or scale. People on this board put too much emphasis in these fantasies. Its like the hot girl that will never give the time of day to you weather you're buttcrack ugly and loaded wallet. Nobody is talking about fantasy storms? You dont understand the definition of fantasy storms if you think the event next week falls into that category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.