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Winter 2013-14 Pattern Discussion II

buckeyefan1

By buckeyefan1,
in Southeastern States

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

Why is another thread needed? If people quit talking so about these fantasy storms if wouldn't get so confusing.

Oh no gfs at 240 showing temps below 32 with half inch of ice. GFS at 150 looks great but no cold air. What are we going to do? brickbot... I'm tired of this cold miserable rain blah blah blah. Euro shows a bomb @ 240 yay... :rolleyes::axe:

Can't tell people nothing if they choose not to listen. Thats the reason why you see these retarded moods swings. Just because it says one thing does not mean it will happen exactly on that date or scale. People on this board put too much emphasis in these fantasies. Its like the hot girl that will never give the time of day to you weather you're buttcrack ugly and loaded wallet.

I think Friday looks like a legit threat from maybe ATL / Cola? Temps may be a concern, but when are they not? I don't consider Tuesday of next week "fantasy" timeframe! 6 days is not fantasy, 384 GFS is fantasy. We got burnt by this weekends event, but that's what we do watch, wait, and hope!
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rduwx

rduwx

Posted
Posted

Well I hate to follow ncweather's post but chasing the hot girl.

 

The cmc has the storm for the middle of next w/ somewhat of a cad sig.  Not as strong as what the gfs was showing but at this point we should just leave it as the cmc has a storm in the same time frame.

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jburns

jburns

Posted
Posted

I think Friday looks like a legit threat from maybe ATL / Cola? Temps may be a concern, but when are they not? I don't consider Tuesday of next week "fantasy" timeframe! 6 days is not fantasy, 384 GFS is fantasy. We got burnt by this weekends event, but that's what we do watch, wait, and hope!

 

We agree a lot but not here.  Go ahead and try to convince me that the models at day 6 have been anywhere close to reality the last three months.  

 

Oh, and it's too early for one storm thread let alone two.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

Well I hate to follow ncweather's post but chasing the hot girl.

The cmc has the storm for the middle of next w/ somewhat of a cad sig. Not as strong as what the gfs was showing but at this point we should just leave it as the cmc has a storm in the same time frame.

There is nothing wrong with chasing the hot girl, one day she may trip and fall, then you got her! Friday stillooks interesting for my area I think we can get the moisture in a little quicker, we may see some white rain!
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SnowNiner

SnowNiner

Posted
Posted

Usually I'd say 6 day lead with many of the major models showing a storm in that time range is not too long to make a thread, jump on board, whatever you want to call it.  However seeing that we just went through this song and dance for this weekend, makes me think it's pretty much a mirage (no really it's a mirror image of what was modeled; crazy).  Shame on you models.....

 

If it doesn't crash and burn dumpster fire by this weekend, make a thread. 

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

12Z 2/5 run: at least 7th GFS run in a row showing sig. wintry precip. for part of the SE within 2/11-13 in addition to the last two Euro runs showing something. This run has a straight Miller A with lengthy CAD from a NE sfc high at 1035 mb at its strongest, which is strong enough to support a major wintry CAD event as per history and considering how cold is the high.

 

Per MeteoStar for 12Z 2/5 GFS late 2/11 to early 2/13:

 

1. NC hit hard:

 

-GSO S/IP: 0.90" qpf; coldest 26

-RDU IP: 0.90"; coldest 28 

-HKY S/IP: 0.70"; coldest 28

-CLT IP/ZR: 0.60"; coldest 29

 

2. SC: GSP hit pretty hard 

 

-GSP IP/ZR: 0.60"; coldest 31

 

3. GA/SC cities with cold rain verbatim but close call and may not be modeled cold enough considering the 850's that are mainly 6 C or colder and also how cold it is in NC as well as the sig. amount of qpf

 

- CAE 1.5"; coldest 35

- GVL 0.75"; coldest 34

- AHN 1.1"; coldest 34

- ATL metro: 

 - MGE 1"; 36

 - PDK 1"; 35

 - ATL 1.25"; 35

 - FFC 1.25" 36 (36 all of the way down to FFC is pretty noteworthy)

 

** We're now just about to get within 6 days of the start of this per the 12Z GFS and the 0Z Euro

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Next weeks event looks to be a little different compared to this weekend event (pre-setup wise). The potenetial storm is not that far off when looking at when the storm becomes staged to start its move towards the SE(just past hour 120). There will be cold air establsihed before the storm and a high pressure that is not transient. I know we've said this many times in the past(... just recently) but this really is our best chance of a major winter event. Even if it is ice.    

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

12z NAM is a big hit for KCAE per Bufkit.  Whole sounding goes below freezing to the surface.

COBB data output puts 5.8 inches down.

No COBB = 2.0 inches.

 

What's odd is the website that we use a lot to view the raw text just has it as RAIN/SNOW mix... and looks nothing like Bufkit at all.

 

There may just be an axis of heavy precip that comes through parts of GA/SC to give a surprise here Friday.  IF the NAM is right of course.  GFS looks like poo.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

1) The 12Z GEFS is very much supportive of a heavy qpf event (0.75-1.5") for late 2/11 to 2/13. It also shows a nice wedging sig. from a decent strengthed cold high in the NE.

 

2) The moisture feeding into this SE storm is associated with the heaviest rainfall by far going into SF/northern California since December of 2012! The 12Z GEFS has them getting 2-3" for this weekend! So, considering the upper flow, a quite significant SE qpf event for next week makes sense.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

 The 12Z Euro is the 3rd run in a row, in addition to 7+ GFS runs in a row, showing a sig. wintry event in the SE within 2./11-13. Although N GA and SC are again too warm verbatim, much of NC gets a very nice largely ZR event that starts 2/11. Ice, ice, baby!! Get your generators asap. ;)

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

What areas are we talking about?

 

Central NC has snow chances with the upper disturbance crossing through Thursday-Friday morning timeframe. Moisture is not too deep but could see a strip of flurries from N GA to Central NC.

 

Then Saturday with two areas of deepest moisture along the coast and another area dropping out of the N/W like the gfs was showing with the strong frontogensis what like a day or 1.5 days ago. The 850 0C line appears to stay along the 85 corridor from CLT to Richmond

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packfan98

packfan98

Posted
Posted

Central NC has snow chances with the upper disturbance crossing through Thursday-Friday morning timeframe. Moisture is not too deep but could see a strip of flurries from N GA to Central NC.

 

Then Saturday with two areas of deepest moisture along the coast and another area dropping out of the N/W like the gfs was showing with the strong frontogensis what like a day or 1.5 days ago. The 850 0C line appears to stay along the 85 corridor from CLT to Richmond

Thanks for the info.

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

 The 12Z Euro is the 3rd run in a row, in addition to 7+ GFS runs in a row, showing a sig. wintry event in the SE within 2./11-13. Although N GA and SC are again too warm verbatim, much of NC gets a very nice largely ZR event that starts 2/11. Ice, ice, baby!! Get your generators asap. ;)

You do know you are egging folks on with models who have been changing from run to run, don't you :)  Why not just wait until a Miller A shows up with temps in the 20's, and 2 inches of qpf, all snow and sleet?  It's coming...just wait a run or two, lol.  I know you are playing, but some of the more impressionable may not.  Hard on the heels of your recent great success, you might be incorrectly construed :)  We are close enough to Friday, where I might be persuaded to think there is a chance down here for something...if the 0 line moves south, and if that tongue of precip moves over me.  Otherwise, it's just fools gold past two days out, lol.  T

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

You do know you are egging folks on with models who have been changing from run to run, don't you :)  Why not just wait until a Miller A shows up with temps in the 20's, and 2 inches of qpf, all snow and sleet?  It's coming...just wait a run or two, lol.  I know you are playing, but some of the more impressionable may not.  Hard on the heels of your recent great success, you might be incorrectly construed :)  We are close enough to Friday, where I might be persuaded to think there is a chance down here for something...if the 0 line moves south, and if that tongue of precip moves over me.  Otherwise, it's just fools gold past two days out, lol.  T

 

Soundings might support wait for it.. SLEET for your area if the NAM is right.. for thurs/friday area.  I had just glanced quickly over a sounding though.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

RAH not very impressed with the wintery chances Friday night / Saturday morning, but they are acknowledging the potential for snow.

 

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...S/W IN THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM CROSSES
THE LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY.
THIS FEATURE INDUCES SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING. TEH GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A LOW FARTHER
OFFSHORE WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS CLOSER TO SHORE. THE ECMWF SCENARIO
IS A WETTER SOLUTION FOR CENTRAL NC COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS
THE BEST MOISTURE/LIFT ACROSS COASTAL CAROLINA. PRESENCE OF THE DRY
SFC RIDGE AND DEVELOPING SLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC SUGGEST THE
ONSET OF A HYBRID DAMMING EVENT ONCE THE PRECIP STARTS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER MAY COOL THE
AIRMASS ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE PRECIP TO INITIALLY FALL AS LIGHT SNOW
OR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED. THIS WINTRY MIX WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND MAINLY BETWEEN 4 AM AND 10
AM. APPEARS THAT ANY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS VERIFIES.

PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE ALL LIQUID BY LATE MORNING WITH RAIN TAPERING
OFF FROM THE SW DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MAIN ENERGY ALOFT LIFTS NEWD
AWAY FROM OUR REGION.

SINCE ANTICIPATING A DAMMING EVENT...FAVOR HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. POTENTIAL FOR THE NW PIEDMONT TO REMAIN IN THE
30S ALL DAY. MAX TEMPS UPPER 30S NW TO UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SE.

-- End Changed Discussion --
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rduwx

rduwx

Posted
Posted

 

RAH not very impressed with the wintery chances Friday night / Saturday morning, but they are acknowledging the potential for snow.

 

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...S/W IN THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM CROSSES

THE LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY SATURDAY.

THIS FEATURE INDUCES SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST BY

SATURDAY MORNING. TEH GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A LOW FARTHER

OFFSHORE WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS CLOSER TO SHORE. THE ECMWF SCENARIO

IS A WETTER SOLUTION FOR CENTRAL NC COMPARED TO THE GFS WHICH KEEPS

THE BEST MOISTURE/LIFT ACROSS COASTAL CAROLINA. PRESENCE OF THE DRY

SFC RIDGE AND DEVELOPING SLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC SUGGEST THE

ONSET OF A HYBRID DAMMING EVENT ONCE THE PRECIP STARTS ACROSS THE

REGION. THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN THE SUB CLOUD LAYER MAY COOL THE

AIRMASS ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE PRECIP TO INITIALLY FALL AS LIGHT SNOW

OR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED. THIS WINTRY MIX WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO

OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND MAINLY BETWEEN 4 AM AND 10

AM. APPEARS THAT ANY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS AMOUNTS

EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS VERIFIES.

PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE ALL LIQUID BY LATE MORNING WITH RAIN TAPERING

OFF FROM THE SW DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MAIN ENERGY ALOFT LIFTS NEWD

AWAY FROM OUR REGION.

SINCE ANTICIPATING A DAMMING EVENT...FAVOR HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY

COOLER THAN GUIDANCE. POTENTIAL FOR THE NW PIEDMONT TO REMAIN IN THE

30S ALL DAY. MAX TEMPS UPPER 30S NW TO UPPER 40S/AROUND 50 SE.

-- End Changed Discussion --

 

 

It's a shame we lost the stronger high to our north when we finally got the track we wanted.  The timing of the event (middle of the day) for our area doesn't help either.

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