wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I thought it was already understood that the GFS and Euro ops both had it. Especially the Euro. The 12z Euro verbatim is a SECS. A few of the 12z GEFS individual members were major storms. Lol. For Suffolk County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Lol. For Suffolk County. Not to be confrontational but isn't New England part of the east coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 looks cold and dry Exactly....people see a big ridge out west and they think it's gonna snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Exactly....people see a big ridge out west and they think it's gonna snow. Week 2 baby . Agree Week 1 stinky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Exactly....people see a big ridge out west and they think it's gonna snow. Patience Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I think NYC can reach 4 or lower again with the upcoming cold….per euro we don't get above frz for 2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Im gonna be lmaoing when this is over and its still dry as a bone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 It's obviously going to take time and patience is already running thin, but I'll be shocked if we don't get at least one significant snow event by the time the pattern breaks. January 25th-February 15th is the period to watch as some mentioned. We've had plenty of cold and dry patterns here. A roaring +NAO as that map shows would be bone dry most likely. What storms there are would likely be suppressed and sheared to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 It's obviously going to take time and patience is already running thin, but I'll be shocked if we don't get at least one significant snow event by the time the pattern breaks. January 25th-February 15th is the period to watch as some mentioned. We've had plenty of cold and dry patterns here. A roaring +NAO as that map shows would be bone dry most likely. What storms there are would likely be suppressed and sheared to nothing. But as the pv pivots and relaxes is when we stand a threat for a storm. It reloads between the 26-28th so that period needs to be watched imho before the huge shot of cold drops south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Im gonna be lmaoing when this is over and its still dry as a bone... Highly doubt it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 How is that a roaring +NAO? There are above normal heights stretching to Northern Greenland,looks like neutral to slightly Negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Im gonna be lmaoing when this is over and its still dry as a bone... Doubt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 The PV didnt even make its grand entrance and people are already jumping the ship! weenie suicide watch had been issued for the rest of winter 2014 officially effective immediately Earthlight, PB GFI and others have emphasized patience with this DEVELOPING pattern and it wont produce immediately. 2010 featured this problem as well, it takes time to get the teleconnectors lined up for a big storm on the EC.....PATIENCE people please, come back wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 I'm not paying too much attention to op models yet, just see what the trends are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Im gonna be lmaoing when this is over and its still dry as a bone... Same folks were saying the same thing a week or two before our last 6 - 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 It's obviously going to take time and patience is already running thin, but I'll be shocked if we don't get at least one significant snow event by the time the pattern breaks. January 25th-February 15th is the period to watch as some mentioned. No offense, but in what winter isn't January 25th to February 15th the period to watch for wintry precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Im gonna be lmaoing when this is over and its still dry as a bone... No heart! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 No offense, but in what winter isn't January 25th to February 15th the period to watch for wintry precip? I'm going off of what Don and Earthlight said, and there are plenty of winters where that time period is obsolete for winter weather as we have an idea what the pattern will be a few weeks ahead of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 If you want to see something that doesn't get modeled that often around here , and no I don't expect it to happen But it will give you some insight as to what the model is seeing in week 2 for the upcoming pattern . Look at the 18 z GFS and start at hour 192 It snows everyday in some capacity starting jan 25 all the way thru sat feb 1 st Some days it's 2 days straight others have 12 plus hour breaks. You get the point. But there isnt a 24 hour window where theres no precip. Thats telling me the model is having a hard time as to which SW to focus on because theres prob 2 or more in that 7 day period. Now all that precip not gona happen But as dry as the model thinks week 1 is the model thinks week 2 is wet Take a look at the 12z precip ensembles I posted earlier. 14 of 20 members are .75 plus and 4 are greater than 2 inches So the model is seeing a lot of precip week 2 because It's expecting the vortex to slide west and open the window on the eastern seaboard So you have to be patient. There is a lot of potential in week 2 and 3 in this upcoming pattern I wouldn't worry about week 1. It's bringing the cold. It's gona lay ur foundation then after that its prob not epic but its prob pretty good . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Still worried about the lack of blocking though because when the PV relaxes, it's possible the storms cut inland and it's another rainstorm due to a lack of a 50/50 low. If true blocking was in place, then this pattern would probably be beyond epic, perhaps rivaling some of the all time snowiest/coldest periods of all time. The 18z gfs in its far fantasy range kind of shows what I fear where we see the PV retreat and a storm cuts in for Super Bowl sunday though there's plenty of snow threats prior to that. It's a 348-384 hr prog which is pure joke range I think it's a possibility if the PV retreats too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Still worried about the lack of blocking though because when the PV relaxes, it's possible the storms cut inland and it's another rainstorm due to a lack of a 50/50 low. If true blocking was in place, then this pattern would probably be beyond epic, perhaps rivaling some of the all time snowiest/coldest periods of all time. The 18z gfs in its far fantasy range kind of shows what I fear where we see the PV retreat and a storm cuts in for Super Bowl sunday though there's plenty of snow threats prior to that. It's a 348-384 hr prog which is pure joke range I think it's a possibility if the PV retreats too much. Nothing is cutting. All the model is saying week 2 is if you send something through the slot I'm ejecting it northeast And with minus 10 to minus 20 air that's a problem Theres no cutters here. Zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Nothing is cutting. All the model is saying week 2 is if you send something through the slot I'm ejecting it northeast And with minus 10 to minus 20 air that's a problem Theres no cutters here. Zero There are some winters where we would have killed to even get a model run like the 18z gfs, and verbatim, I'd take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 There are some winters where we would have killed to even get a model run like the 18z gfs, and verbatim, I'd take it I wish some of these guys grew up in the 80s. When we were plus 5 in some years and finished w 6 inches of snow. 500 MB patterns like the ones forecasted during next 2 weeks aren't the norm and don't show up every winter . Even great winters stunk at different points. It's just the fact that its modeled is keeping my attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Yeah some of the winters years ago really sucked...But unfortunately I can also see what snoski is saying about a storm being rain after living in western Nassau for 35 years you come to accept the fact that we can Change to rain in some of the best patterns. I've seen it be in the teen's and snow in the morning to the upper 30's and rain by noon many times... these storms are very far off to even try and figure out what's going to happen but if you live on the island you just have to assume any storm could change to rain. ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Its going to be interesting to see if we can get LI sound or the Hudson to significantly freeze with this event, I'm not sure I can recall 240 hours or more consecutive below 32 the last 25 years, maybe in 2004 we did it but not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 How is that a roaring +NAO? There are above normal heights stretching to Northern Greenland,looks like neutral to slightly Negative um because the nao is the difference of pressure from the southern tip of greenland to the azores Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Its going to be interesting to see if we can get LI sound or the Hudson to significantly freeze with this event, I'm not sure I can recall 240 hours or more consecutive below 32 the last 25 years, maybe in 2004 we did it but not sure. from the other thread... longest streak of below freezing max days since 1930...1917-18 added... 16 in 1960-61... 13 in 2000-01... 12 in 2002-03... 12 in 1977-78... 12 in 1957-58... 12 in 1935-36... 11 in 1980-81... 11 in 1978-79... 10 in 1958-59... 10 in 1947-48... 10 in 1917-18 ..9 in 2006-07 ..9 in 2004-05... ..9 in 2003-04... ..9 in 1995-96... ..9 in 1989-90... ..9 in 1976-77... ..9 in 1967-68... ..9 in 1933-34... ..8 in 1983-84... ..7 in 1999-00... ..7 in 1987-88... ..7 in 1963-64... ..7 in 1962-63... many great winters on this list... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Obviously people are trolling, as usual. This pattern isn't going to be bone dry. It was modeled dry last time, and there were events. They may not pop up until closer range, but there will be some. People always preach not to take a model verbatim when it shows a snowstorm, same goes for when it's gone dry. You can't troll about a 200 hour snowstorm not going to happen, then rip and read a bone dry model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 from the other thread... longest streak of below freezing max days since 1930...1917-18 added... 16 in 1960-61... 13 in 2000-01... 12 in 2002-03... 12 in 1977-78... 12 in 1957-58... 12 in 1935-36... 11 in 1980-81... 11 in 1978-79... 10 in 1958-59... 10 in 1947-48... 10 in 1917-18 ..9 in 2006-07 ..9 in 2004-05... ..9 in 2003-04... ..9 in 1995-96... ..9 in 1989-90... ..9 in 1976-77... ..9 in 1967-68... ..9 in 1933-34... ..8 in 1983-84... ..7 in 1999-00... ..7 in 1987-88... ..7 in 1963-64... ..7 in 1962-63... many great winters on this list... Great list Unk. Do we know how much snow fell during each of those streaks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 People always preach not to take a model verbatim when it shows a snowstorm, same goes for when it's gone dry. You can't troll about a 200 hour snowstorm not going to happen, then rip and read a bone dry model run. Glad somebody said this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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