ace0927 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 This is not a sports betting site, let's wait a few days and see where things go. Betting on a favorable pattern is stupid, even the best patterns don't always produce snow. ah, yes...THIS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Dry through the 24th http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 i dont need you to spend $500....plus Feb 10 is basically 4 weeks. Do the odds favor you even in a bad pattern? I am referring to the ogling of the euro and gfs ensembles through month end Was all in good fun. The ogling is always present and will continue to be until one hits Just think it will Dont confuse the upcoming pattern with the last 7 days The pattern through month end is cold Theres nothing that doesnt support that As far as snow , well its just a guess at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Was all in good fun. The ogling is always present and will continue to be until one hits Just think it will Dont confuse the upcoming pattern with the last 7 days The pattern through month end is cold Theres nothing that doesnt support that As far as snow , well its just a guess at best that cold word is what scares me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 0z gfs run is one of the coldest I can remember. We are sub -10 on the 850s for 90% of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 Im thinking that starting monday its going to start getting VERY busy here with multiple snow threats starting to gain some legs. We have the cold, PNA, EPO and even the MJO in favorable position eventually. This pattern is a powderkeg in that if a storm is timed correctly with blocking it'll be pretty darn big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Im thinking that starting monday its going to start getting VERY busy here with multiple snow threats starting to gain some legs. We have the cold, PNA, EPO and even the MJO in favorable position eventually. This pattern is a powderkeg in that if a storm is timed correctly with blocking it'll be pretty darn big I'm not doubting that one bit. I have noticed a trend in the two KU events. If you look at the thread posted about the two KU events, you'll notice that the Heaviest Snowfall Axis has dropped about at least 100 miles south on January's KU event Vs. December's KU event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Im thinking that starting monday its going to start getting VERY busy here with multiple snow threats starting to gain some legs. We have the cold, PNA, EPO and even the MJO in favorable position eventually. This pattern is a powderkeg in that if a storm is timed correctly with blocking it'll be pretty darn big The problem is that even though the cold is a LOCK you`re best chance of snow will be in week 2 . So this week prob turns out DRY. I know no one likes to hear that , but snow is never a LOCK . So we may all need patience and in the end there are still no guarantees . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 One of my sayings is... Cold and dry...warm and wet. Dont get your hopes up for snow just because its a good pattern and you think it will produce. Your setting yourself up for failure. When the Miller A or B is on the radar 100 hours out, start lookin out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 6Z GFS Dry and Very Cold at times 0.34 total precip for 16 days although a storm is possible around the 27th - this one has been showing up for a few days in a row now http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kewr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Im thinking that starting monday its going to start getting VERY busy here with multiple snow threats starting to gain some legs. We have the cold, PNA, EPO and even the MJO in favorable position eventually. This pattern is a powderkeg in that if a storm is timed correctly with blocking it'll be pretty darn big December 2010 not exactly same set up, but from the start of the month it was evident the pattern was in place. Had to wait , but it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 December 2010 not exactly same set up, but from the start of the month it was evident the pattern was in place. Had to wait , but it happened. To a point however as that month featured a pretty anamolous west based -NAO, something that is not guaranteed currently as we head closer and into february Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 The 00z ECMWF ensemble mean was fairly optimistic about light snow chances for early Saturday morning. The 00z ECMWF op run lost the late period storm. That energy coming into the Pacific northwest is going to play a key roll over the next few days. Earthlight please check your PM's. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 The 00z ECMWF ensemble mean was fairly optimistic about light snow chances for early Saturday morning. The 00z ECMWF op run lost the late period storm. That energy coming into the Pacific northwest is going to play a key roll over the next few days. Earthlight please check your PM's. Thanks. Guessing that energy coming into the pacific NW has ramifications for the storm next weekend that some of the models were hinting at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 12z GFS The PV is orientated a bit further east this run. The coldest time period looks to be early to mid-next week before things begin to slowly moderate. Meanwhile our Pacific northwest energy is getting cut off and pushed under the western ridge which is better established this run. The development next weekend is a little late and too far offshore but plenty of time for that to change. Our cut off low energy ejecting eastward is going to be critical. It looks to phase in and bring a legit storm threat for the 26th. For those interested, that's the day of the Devils vs Rangers Yankee Stadium game. The PV then drops back in behind the low for next weekend as the pattern looks to reload. We should then have another major storm chance just before the super bowl. This run once again tracks a miller A from Houston to the gulf of Maine with great PV orientation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 12z GFS The PV is orientated a bit further east this run. The coldest time period looks to be early to mid-next week before things begin to slowly moderate. Meanwhile our Pacific northwest energy is getting cut off and pushed under the western ridge which is better established this run. The development next weekend is a little late and too far offshore but plenty of time for that to change. Our cut off low energy ejecting eastward is going to be critical. It looks to phase in and bring a legit storm threat for the 26th. For those interested, that's the day of the Devils vs Rangers Yankee Stadium game. The PV then drops back in behind the low for next weekend as the pattern looks to reload. We should then have another major storm chance just before the super bowl. This run once again tracks a miller A from Houston to the gulf of Maine with great PV orientation. Went back to its 0z Coast to Coast COLD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 12z GFS The PV is orientated a bit further east this run. The coldest time period looks to be early to mid-next week before things begin to slowly moderate. Meanwhile our Pacific northwest energy is getting cut off and pushed under the western ridge which is better established this run. The development next weekend is a little late and too far offshore but plenty of time for that to change. Our cut off low energy ejecting eastward is going to be critical. It looks to phase in and bring a legit storm threat for the 26th. For those interested, that's the day of the Devils vs Rangers Yankee Stadium game. The PV then drops back in behind the low for next weekend as the pattern looks to reload. We should then have another major storm chance just before the super bowl. This run once again tracks a miller A from Houston to the gulf of Maine with great PV orientation. The first window of opportunity for another snow event in the metro is Jan 24th - 28th - when the pattern starts to relax or begins to reload is the best opportunity as opposed to when the PV is blasting us with extreme low temps - Jan 22nd is still on the table also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 17, 2014 Author Share Posted January 17, 2014 12z GFS The PV is orientated a bit further east this run. The coldest time period looks to be early to mid-next week before things begin to slowly moderate. Meanwhile our Pacific northwest energy is getting cut off and pushed under the western ridge which is better established this run. The development next weekend is a little late and too far offshore but plenty of time for that to change. Our cut off low energy ejecting eastward is going to be critical. It looks to phase in and bring a legit storm threat for the 26th. For those interested, that's the day of the Devils vs Rangers Yankee Stadium game. The PV then drops back in behind the low for next weekend as the pattern looks to reload. We should then have another major storm chance just before the super bowl. This run once again tracks a miller A from Houston to the gulf of Maine with great PV orientation. Great analysis and once again reinforces the theme that once the PV retreats/ reloads that Miller A may come to fruition and deliver the goods. Patience is key right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 There's going to be a lot of frozen lakes and rivers with temperatures staying well below freezing for a long time, significant ice jams perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Obv would love to see where the Ensembles go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Our cut off low energy ejecting eastward is going to be critical. It looks to phase in and bring a legit storm threat for the 26th. That is the system that currently has my full attention! Plenty of energy pouring south and reloading of the PV will spell a secs or perhaps mecs between the 26th and 28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 That is the system that currently has my full attention! Plenty of energy pouring south and reloading of the PV will spell a secs or perhaps mecs between the 26th and 28th. Exciting times ahead. I find tracking the systems almost more exciting than the actual events. How long can you stare out the window at the same thing over and over again? The GFS ensembles are coming out as we speak. So far nothing earth shattering through 66 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 There's going to be a lot of frozen lakes and rivers with temperatures staying well below freezing for a long time, significant ice jams perhaps? alot of lakes have been frozen since early december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 That is the system that currently has my full attention! Plenty of energy pouring south and reloading of the PV will spell a secs or perhaps mecs between the 26th and 28th. Exciting times ahead. I find tracking the systems almost more exciting than the actual events. How long can you stare out the window at the same thing over and over again? The GFS ensembles are coming out as we speak. So far nothing earth shattering through 66 hours. Thanks for the pbp please keep us posted on the gfs ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 12z GFS The PV is orientated a bit further east this run. The coldest time period looks to be early to mid-next week before things begin to slowly moderate. Meanwhile our Pacific northwest energy is getting cut off and pushed under the western ridge which is better established this run. The development next weekend is a little late and too far offshore but plenty of time for that to change. Our cut off low energy ejecting eastward is going to be critical. It looks to phase in and bring a legit storm threat for the 26th. For those interested, that's the day of the Devils vs Rangers Yankee Stadium game. The PV then drops back in behind the low for next weekend as the pattern looks to reload. We should then have another major storm chance just before the super bowl. This run once again tracks a miller A from Houston to the gulf of Maine with great PV orientation. Not trying to crush snow dreams, but a reality check is needed. With the Ploar Vortex 2 coming, I would expect a surpressed pattern. When the pattern relaxes/changes, we may be able to get a storm. The recent possible storms that a model run or two shows long range quickly get killed around 5-6 days in advance recently. Best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Exciting times ahead. I find tracking the systems almost more exciting than the actual events. How long can you stare out the window at the same thing over and over again? The GFS ensembles are coming out as we speak. So far nothing earth shattering through 66 hours. The tracking IS the fun man. The actual event is sweet, but it's the journey that makes the experience. And not just with snow. The pursuing of dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 Not trying to crush snow dreams, but a reality check is needed. With the Ploar Vortex 2 coming, I would expect a surpressed pattern. When the pattern relaxes/changes, we may be able to get a storm. The recent possible storms that a model run or two shows long range quickly get killed around 5-6 days in advance recently. Best. With the Ploar Vortex 2 coming, I would expect a surpressed pattern. - Of course. No one is saying otherwise. The stormy pattern comes after the PV split/relaxes, which is around the 1/25 as per the models When the pattern relaxes/changes, we may be able to get a storm. - That's all anyone is saying. The recent possible storms that a model run or two shows long range quickly get killed around 5-6 days in advance recently. - That's because sometimes, and usually, it takes 2-3 weeks for a pattern to fully settle in. See December 2010 as an example. All, just read Earthlights posts, sit back and enjoy the ride. We went through a very similar progression in December 2010. Models kept showing big storms, only to take them away, including immediately before Boxing Day . This was all happening as the pattern was setting up. It took a week or two longer than expected, but eventually it produced. Frankly, the longer it takes the better, for KU chances. Models have been hinting at a -NAO, perhaps sustained even, setting up by the end of the month. If the progged pattern comes to fruition, it will snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 The 12z GEFS ensembles were fine in the long range and about where you would expect them to be. A few of the individual members blow up the low and give us a nice storm next Sunday. Quite a few members also have big storms in the 8-10 day range. Overall a very nice setup about to ensue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 12z ECMWF op run Through hour 120, the cold is delayed but not denied, although nowhere near the extreme of what the 12z run had yesterday. The PV is further east and it's putting a negative tilt on the western ridge. Still, energy is diving down the back side of the PV and a weak low is over the deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 17, 2014 Share Posted January 17, 2014 The PV is in a less favorable position through the mid-period for amplification. The ridge out west still looks nice but the PV is completely shearing out all the southern stream energy. Yet another strong clipper is swinging through the mid-west and this one might have implications on our area. The 12z GGEM has this feature bringing the area some snow and some of the 12z GEFS members had it as well. At hour 144 the clipper is transferring and redeveloping over the mid-atlantic. Light snow beginning to break out. Hour 150 light snow over the region as the redeveloping low passes off the NJ coast. Would be a nice 1-3 or 2-4 type deal. More east. Meanwhile a 1040mb high is located over the northern plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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