TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Glad somebody said this. It's the truth. It's the same people who call bust on a storm before snow even begins falling, etc etc. it's laughable when people poo poo a snowstorm and how it won't happen, and as soon as it shows rain, that is the correct solution and lock it in. It's really not even a veiled attempt at trolling, it's just blatant. Why is it okay to lock in a rain solution at 200 hours, but if it shows snow, it's ridiculous, not going to happen, and wish casting. This pattern may or may not produce big, who knows. Regardless, I don't think anyone is going bone dry for weeks, it didn't last time and it usually doesn't. Arctic air is a breeding ground or at least some moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Great list Unk. Do we know how much snow fell during each of those streaks? I believe 1989-90's streak in December had very little snow...2003 in January had very little snow... 16 in 1960-61...starts with and ends with a blizzard...1/19-2/3 13 in 2000-01...blizzard on 12/30 12 in 2002-03...during a dry cold January...some light snow durung streak...Blizzard in February... 12 in 1977-78...late January into early February ends with a blizzard...2/6... 12 in 1957-58...February with a blizzard on the 16th... 12 in 1935-36...snow on the ground from a previous heavy snow... 11 in 1980-81...5" at the start and on the ground throughout... 11 in 1978-79...ends with a heavy snowstorm... 10 in 1958-59...started with 3" of snow in December... 10 in 1947-48...10" of snow on the ground with a few snowfalls... 10 in 1917-18...2" of snow at the start...ends with a rain storm... ..9 in 2004-05...blizzard near the end in January... ..9 in 2003-04...heavy snow during end of January... ..9 in 1995-96...blizzard during streak... ..9 in 1989-90...December with little snow... ..9 in 1976-77...6" of snow during the period in January... ..9 in 1967-68...some light snows during period in January... ..9 in 1933-34...8" of snow on the ground before streak started... ..8 in 1983-84...moderate snowfalls during the period... ..7 in 1999-00...6" of snow during the end of period at the end of January... ..7 in 1987-88...6" storm just before the streak starts and another 6" storm during the streak in January... ..7 in 1963-64...middle of December with light snow during the streak and 6" at the end... ..7 in 1962-63...some light snow at the start of the streak in December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I believe 1989-90's streak in December had very little snow...2003 in January had very little snow... 16 in 1960-61...starts with and ends with a blizzard...1/19-2/3 13 in 2000-01...blizzard on 12/30 12 in 2002-03...during a dry cold January...some light snow durung streak...Blizzard in February... 12 in 1977-78...late January into early February ends with a blizzard...2/6... 12 in 1957-58...February with a blizzard on the 16th... 12 in 1935-36...snow on the ground from a previous heavy snow... 11 in 1980-81...5" at the start and on the ground throughout... 11 in 1978-79...ends with a heavy snowstorm... 10 in 1958-59...started with 3" of snow in December... 10 in 1947-48...10" of snow on the ground with a few snowfalls... 10 in 1917-18...2" of snow at the start...ends with a rain storm... ..9 in 2004-05...blizzard near the end in January... ..9 in 2003-04...heavy snow during end of January... ..9 in 1995-96...blizzard during streak... ..9 in 1989-90...December with little snow... ..9 in 1976-77...6" of snow during the period in January... ..9 in 1967-68...some light snows during period in January... ..9 in 1933-34...8" of snow on the ground before streak started... ..8 in 1983-84...moderate snowfalls during the period... ..7 in 1999-00...6" of snow during the end of period at the end of January... ..7 in 1987-88...6" storm just before the streak starts and another 6" storm during the streak in January... ..7 in 1963-64...middle of December with light snow during the streak and 6" at the end... ..7 in 1962-63...some light snow at the start of the streak in December... These really cold periods have at times ended with snowstorms. So many times as the trough finally pulls out something is on there backside and sends on its way . The one draw back has been the biggest snows that occur on the backend of these patterns are gone within a week as it warms so rapidly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Thanks Unk. Interesting to see that only a few of those steaks were bone dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Thanks Unk. Interesting to see that only a few of those steaks were bone dry. 60-61 was the best with 77-78 and 78-79 not far behind...The storm on 1/19-20/61 didn't melt but was added to by three more snow events adding another 5" to the piles...The streak ended with what I call my favorite storm on 2/4/61...After that storm there was 25" of snow on the ground in Central Park... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I believe 1989-90's streak in December had very little snow...2003 in January had very little snow... 16 in 1960-61...starts with and ends with a blizzard...1/19-2/3 13 in 2000-01...blizzard on 12/30 12 in 2002-03...during a dry cold January...some light snow durung streak...Blizzard in February... 12 in 1977-78...late January into early February ends with a blizzard...2/6... 12 in 1957-58...February with a blizzard on the 16th... 12 in 1935-36...snow on the ground from a previous heavy snow... 11 in 1980-81...5" at the start and on the ground throughout... 11 in 1978-79...ends with a heavy snowstorm... 10 in 1958-59...started with 3" of snow in December... 10 in 1947-48...10" of snow on the ground with a few snowfalls... 10 in 1917-18...2" of snow at the start...ends with a rain storm... ..9 in 2004-05...blizzard near the end in January... ..9 in 2003-04...heavy snow during end of January... ..9 in 1995-96...blizzard during streak... ..9 in 1989-90...December with little snow... ..9 in 1976-77...6" of snow during the period in January... ..9 in 1967-68...some light snows during period in January... ..9 in 1933-34...8" of snow on the ground before streak started... ..8 in 1983-84...moderate snowfalls during the period... ..7 in 1999-00...6" of snow during the end of period at the end of January... ..7 in 1987-88...6" storm just before the streak starts and another 6" storm during the streak in January... ..7 in 1963-64...middle of December with light snow during the streak and 6" at the end... ..7 in 1962-63...some light snow at the start of the streak in December... Nice stuff. Seems like history is against seeing completely bone dry pattern. At least low to moderate potential for a bigger system as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Nice stuff. Seems like history is against seeing completely bone dry pattern. At least low to moderate potential for a bigger system as well yea if we get a week of below freezing temperatures I think there is no way it won't snow during the period...especially the way the Gulf has opened up this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 go back to being a lurker.....when i post maps/analogs/facts they get ignored because most here cant deal with facts if it disproves their hopes and dreams....so i wont waste my time doing that any longer all you have to do is look at the compressed height fields and you can assume what is LIKELY to happen...nothing is definite.... Hey bro. serious question. When you see the ensembles in agreement rotating the PV west after day 7 you don't think that opens up a window for a SW or 2 to run NE ? Forget the compressed height field , I will give you it gets cold and snow doesn't equal cold But we don't need the NAO to be neg to get a major snowstorm here. Everyone seems to be bent on the Atlantic Blocking helps but it can also compress To me the PNA ( 24 of 31 ) were pos when weighing 10 inch storms and the most important to me is the trough axis are the most important ingredient for EC development Keep in mind 14 out of the 31 10 inch or greater snows have happened with a neg NAO so its 50 50 (45 -55) This seems to be lining up on he ensembles not just the ops that's why I'm on board .tell me why u are convinced its bone dry If its plausible then it's fair to hear u out. Either way all good dude , ur entitled to you're opinion . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 yea if we get a week of below freezing temperatures I think there is no way it won't snow during the period...especially the way the Gulf has opened up this year... Yup, I suppose it's possible to get skunked, but highly unlikely IMO. That is not the trend this year. I think it's probably nickel and dime events, with a big ticket event towards the end when the pattern relaxes. Just my thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 go back to being a lurker.....when i post maps/analogs/facts they get ignored because most here cant deal with facts if it disproves their hopes and dreams....so i wont waste my time doing that any longer all you have to do is look at the compressed height fields and you can assume what is LIKELY to happen...nothing is definite.... Don't stop posting anything just bc you feel differently than most about the pattern. If this was the case there would be no real debate or discussion. Over the past week you have backed up your reasons why you think this is a dry pattern. PV crushing everything, compressed heights secondary to the PV in a poor location which doesn't give us enough space for amplification, and a 50/50 low that's not in the 50/50 location.Now in my opinion I think we stay mostly dry for the time being. With the 23rd/24th threat we would be lucky to see a storm..not that it can't happen...it just doesn't look likely. Now if the PV splits or elongates we have room for amplification. I'm excited and think after we start off cold and dry we will be tracking multiple threats based on the forecasted indicies and the fact the southern stream looks to get involved at some point. I also think we will need some timely blocking even if its transient..not to mention a trough axis over MS could yield nice results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Hey bro. serious question. When you see the ensembles in agreement rotating the PV west after day 7 you don't think that opens up a window for a SW or 2 to run NE ? Forget the compressed height field , I will give you it gets cold and snow doesn't equal cold But we don't need the NAO to be neg to get a major snowstorm here. Everyone seems to be bent on the Atlantic Blocking helps but it can also compress To me the PNA ( 24 of 31 ) were pos when weighing 10 inch storms and the most important to me is the trough axis are the most important ingredient for EC development Keep in mind 14 out of the 31 10 inch or greater snows have happened with a neg NAO so its 50 50 (45 -55) This seems to be lining up on he ensembles not just the ops that's why I'm on board .tell me why u are convinced its bone dry If its plausible then it's fair to hear u out. Either way all good dude , ur entitled to you're opinion . i cant find one example of a good snowstorm with a huge PV is central canada....if I am wrong great - i havebeen before and will definitely be wrong in the future....show me some h5 maps with a 470DCM with 8 closed contours that lead to a significant snow storm... the PV needs to weaken and migrate EAST to east of labrador....or elongate..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 i cant find one example of a good snowstorm with a huge PV is central canada....if I am wrong great - i havebeen before and will definitely be wrong in the future....show me some h5 maps with a 470DCM with 8 closed contours that lead to a significant snow storm... the PV needs to weaken and migrate EAST to east of labrador....or elongate..... It will....eventually. It's not like the AO is Super (-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Hey bro. serious question. When you see the ensembles in agreement rotating the PV west after day 7 you don't think that opens up a window for a SW or 2 to run NE ? Forget the compressed height field , I will give you it gets cold and snow doesn't equal cold But we don't need the NAO to be neg to get a major snowstorm here. Everyone seems to be bent on the Atlantic Blocking helps but it can also compress To me the PNA ( 24 of 31 ) were pos when weighing 10 inch storms and the most important to me is the trough axis are the most important ingredient for EC development Keep in mind 14 out of the 31 10 inch or greater snows have happened with a neg NAO so its 50 50 (45 -55) This seems to be lining up on he ensembles not just the ops that's why I'm on board .tell me why u are convinced its bone dry If its plausible then it's fair to hear u out. Either way all good dude , ur entitled to you're opinion . granted i have no science background...but from a logical perspective, without a -nao, this big a +PNA might actually be a detriment to a big snow event...the speed and which the shortwaves come down the into the base of the trough there is no mechanism to slow them down at all.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 It will....eventually. It's not like the AO is Super (-). why will it? because someone said it had to???? There have been PLENTY of better patterns that didnt produce...give me a neutral PNA and a -nao over this anyday. All you need is 32 to snow...this extreme, heavy, dense cold isnt great for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 It will....eventually. It's not like the AO is Super (-). Give the PV a xanax and everything will relax and then maybe we can get some amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 i cant find one example of a good snowstorm with a huge PV is central canada....if I am wrong great - i havebeen before and will definitely be wrong in the future....show me some h5 maps with a 470DCM with 8 closed contours that lead to a significant snow storm... the PV needs to weaken and migrate EAST to east of labrador....or elongate..... Fair , but I think that's the look week 1 which could be dry . My opinion is this isn't one of those 5 days in out and we miss a connection I think the hooked heights over the top Traps this and it retrogrades and eventually elongates it so theres room on its eastern side and SW can get to the BM week 2 I don't have to be right , i just hope i am. its just how I'm seeing this as I think this thing is here for 15 days give or take Peace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 when i post maps/analogs/facts they get ignored because most here cant deal with facts if it disproves their hopes and dreams....so i wont waste my time doing that any longer …if you have posted maps in the past and you were right in your analysis then it's not your fault others have a problem with it. Please post your reasoning without worrying about what others think. I just get mad at posts without factual backing (as it seems u do too). Sorry to go off on you as an example - but i CAN deal with your opposing view. The frustrating part about your opposing view is that I want to understand where you are coming from. If you have maps to post, please post them so I/We can see where you are coming from. If you end up being right in the end, we will have all learned a great deal from it…if you aren't then so be it, we still learn a great deal. But I think we can avoid pissy posters if you continue to provide your own analysis. I know I for one would greatly appreciate it. Again sorry for the rant before, I didn't mean to make it personal but it came out that way. Anyway…here's a quote from what Earthlight said earlier Although initially progressive, the anomalous nature and retrogressive developments in the pattern suggest not just one chance, but multiple chances for significant winter weather events in the Northeast United States. The progressive nature is going to drive all of us crazy (as is already happening). We shall see down the road if the pattern is able to produce week 2. John stated that the ensembles are retrograding the pattern by them, putting the trough axis further west over the miss river. Ace do you agree with his analysis in that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Fair , but I think that's the look week 1 which could be dry . My opinion is this isn't one of those 5 days in out and we miss a connection I think the hooked heights over the top Traps this and it retrogrades and eventually elongates it so theres room on its eastern side and SW can get to the BM week 2 I don't have to be right , i just hope i am. its just how I'm seeing this as I think this thing is here for 15 days give or take Peace what could very well happen is we get a late developing storm that gets E NE or the mid atlantic gets a few 2-4" deals.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Rjay, that is just it, these guys dont want debate - they want to re-assured its gonna snow, like an insecure child needs every time he/she finishes 15th out of 16 in a race...and still pathetically gets a trophyIts one thing to debate but it seems like your sole purpose and the only time you post is to point and laugh at how it won't snow..or its going to be rain..or its not heavy at your house or the forecast is 6-12, I'll be lucky to see 4. That's not spirited debate or offering anything of substance its just negativity.Again this may not be your intent but its how you're perceived Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 …if you have posted maps in the past and you were right in your analysis then it's not your fault others have a problem with it. Please post your reasoning without worrying about what others think. I just get mad at posts without factual backing (as it seems u do too). Sorry to go off on you as an example - but i CAN deal with your opposing view. The frustrating part about your opposing view is that I want to understand where you are coming from. If you have maps to post, please post them so I/We can see where you are coming from. If you end up being right in the end, we will have all learned a great deal from it…if you aren't then so be it, we still learn a great deal. But I think we can avoid pissy posters if you continue to provide your own analysis. I know I for one would greatly appreciate it. Again sorry for the rant before, I didn't mean to make it personal but it came out that way. Anyway…here's a quote from what Earthlight said earlier The progressive nature is going to drive all of us crazy (as is already happening). We shall see down the road if the pattern is able to produce week 2. John stated that the ensembles are retrograding the pattern by them, putting the trough axis further west over the miss river. Ace do you agree with his analysis in that? I have posted my reasoning plenty - see Rjay's post about what I have said the past week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I have posted my reasoning plenty - see Rjay's post about what I have said the past week Got it…so any idea how today's ensembles handled elongating and retrograding the polar vortex westward after the initial cold and dry shot? Am I right in surmising that this retrogression is our biggest chance at getting anything more than a late redeveloping miller B? If the PV retrogrades west, this would allow room for amplification along the coast. How did the ensembles handle this today? Being it foolish to look at individual model runs, if we see the gfs and euro ensembles start to back away from this idea, your ideas will begin to gain credence. I guess until then it's the word of the week: "patience" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I checked the 0 z gfs as I did not see any post. Looks cold and dry through 240 hours. Maybe a car topper or two in this period. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 I checked the 0 z gfs as I did not see any post. Looks cold and dry through 240 hours. Maybe a car topper or two in this period. Best Along the coast, better for inland locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 granted i have no science background...but from a logical perspective, without a -nao, this big a +PNA might actually be a detriment to a big snow event...the speed and which the shortwaves come down the into the base of the trough there is no mechanism to slow them down at all.... Now, by the last 5-6 days of the operational GFS, the PNA is no longer positive. Let's hope this is not the beginning of a trend reversing the pattern many of us have been anticipating. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Yeah GFS tonight looks terrible! No snow during the cold pattern, and then a warmup in the long range. Would be terrible if we get nothing from this pattern that so many people are optimistic about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 0Z GFS is a train wreck in the long range. It flips us to zonal pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 0Z GFS is a train wreck in the long range. It flips us to zonal pattern. And at 18z it snowed for 7 days straight. Euro ensembles ,JMA ,Canadian ensembles, CFSV2 and its own 12z ensembles all Cold I wrote at 630 I didn't believe 7 days of snow and 6 hours later there's no reason to believe in 50 degrees for the Week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Yeah GFS tonight looks terrible! No snow during the cold pattern, and then a warmup in the long range. Would be terrible if we get nothing from this pattern that so many people are optimistic about. I have seen good patterns go snowless many times. I still think we will get measurable snow out of this pattern, probably significant measurable snow. But you're going to see the models all over the place over the next 4-5 days. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Lol at tonight's gfs which basically torches us before we even get to February, would be an epic pattern bust for those calling for a cold and potentially snowy pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Lol at tonight's gfs which basically torches us before we even get to February, would be an epic pattern bust for those calling for a cold and potentially snowy pattern. I doubt JB will get much sleep tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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