Animal Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Very serious. Nothing on the horizon. We need some storms to crash in California. yea, we may be able to get a 1-2 inch event in the short range, but looking at the models, we may need to do a snow dance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 What we need is for the pattern to break on the west coast. No storms at all near SCA that could form a nice southern storm. Pattern is awful. Honestly the worst long range storm pattern in years for snow storms. Really? I guess that makes years like 2001-2002, 2007-2008, and 2011-2012 great snow patterns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Really? I guess that makes years like 2001-2002, 2007-2008, and 2011-2012 great snow patterns Relax. Your emotions are getting in front of your search for snow. Yes, this is the GFS long range, but most modesl are not showing really much of anything the until the end of the month. I am looking forward to the cold. We may wake up Tuesday morning and have an event looking at us square in the eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 man, looks like no precip in Cali either through day 10. Could be an epic fire season out west Record dry year and Sierra snowpack only 15% of normal. Ugliest visible satellite image that you are ever going to see there. I really hope they can catch a break at some point between Feb-Mar before what is supposed to be the rainy season winds down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Chillax. Most everyone has had 20+ so far this winter. That's pretty F'ing outstanding for a well forecasted +AO +NAO winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 18, 2014 Share Posted January 18, 2014 Record dry year and Sierra snowpack only 15% of normal. Ugliest visible satellite image that you are ever going to see there. I really hope they can catch a break at some point between Feb-Mar before what is supposed to be the rainy season winds down. satca.jpg wow that's scary. I have read a lot of articles about upcoming water shortages but with all the water we waste just by flushing the toilet, its something that is hard to wrap your head around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 That's sad to look at out west. You can see all the dead vegetation and the significantly less snow pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 That's sad to look at out west. You can see all the dead vegetation and the significantly less snow pack. Cold weather in the eastern half of the nation generally leads to a ridge with mild & dry conditions out west...it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Cold weather in the eastern half of the nation generally leads to a ridge with mild & dry conditions out west...it happens. The funny thing is they have been wetter than it historically it should have been over the last century or so in the southwest. That entire area was never meant to support the amount of people that live there. A good example of that is LV, it is a city built by pumped in water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Scary fire season if this keeps up and possibly state wide mandatory water restrictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Cold weather in the eastern half of the nation generally leads to a ridge with mild & dry conditions out west...it happens. Yup. Temps have been running generally below normal here in the east since what? August? We've all been watching the pattern and the persistent ridge out west. Nobody here should be surprised about the drought in Cali. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 wow that's scary. I have read a lot of articles about upcoming water shortages but with all the water we waste just by flushing the toilet, its something that is hard to wrap your head around. Hopefully, the record breaking block weakens before what is usually the rainy season winds down the next few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 It was about 2.5 F colder at NWS Upton for calendar year 2013 than for 2012 as the cooling continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 It was about 2.5 F colder at NWS Upton for calendar year 2013 than for 2012 as the cooling continues. Its interesting how it coincided with the really weak solar cycle... I remember in the mid 2000s when this cycle was supposed to be the strongest yet. Instead we have the weakest in over 100 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Didn't see anyone mention the 18z, hr372 and doesn't really look to warm to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Didn't see anyone mention the 18z, hr372 and doesn't really look to warm to me lol yea it was funny to watch people freak out over one run earlier @300+ hours. The models are lucky to know what they are doing sub 100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Its interesting how it coincided with the really weak solar cycle... I remember in the mid 2000s when this cycle was supposed to be the strongest yet. Instead we have the weakest in over 100 years. Obviously no one can say for certain what the distant future holds weather wise...as I always caution those who "guarantee" a warmer future world...my own opinion is, based on the theory that solar influence is the veritable sine qua non of our weather...in conjunction with the recent weak solar cycles...strongly argues for a cooling world in the coming years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Hopefully, the record breaking block weakens before what is usually the rainy season winds down the next few months. post-564-0-76718700-1389906324.png post-564-0-76335900-1389384949.png Yea Blue, they need it. It could be a horrible situation if they don't. What is scary is how fast conditions are deteriorating there. If they don't make up some of the difference in the next 2 months the rest of the year could be a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Very serious. Nothing on the horizon. We need some storms to crash in California. yea, we may be able to get a 1-2 inch event in the short range, but looking at the models, we may need to do a snow dance. Yeah. A +PNA isn't good if you don't have any blocking. A -PNA is better because the pieces of energy from the PV can be sent southward through the Midwest. As long as the PNA isn't too (-), it's fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 It was about 2.5 F colder at NWS Upton for calendar year 2013 than for 2012 as the cooling continues. Pretty small region overall, however in the end it was a cool year for the conus and a little warmer globally than 2012. Temperatures have been varying between 0.6c and 0.8c above baseline for many years, will be interesting to see if we break the trend this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Obviously no one can say for certain what the distant future holds weather wise...as I always caution those who "guarantee" a warmer future world...my own opinion is, based on the theory that solar influence is the veritable sine qua non of our weather...in conjunction with the recent weak solar cycles...strongly argues for a cooling world in the coming years. Yea I agree. I laugh when people don't have an open mind. People need to read more history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Didn't see anyone mention the 18z, hr372 and doesn't really look to warm to me I wrote it before the 18z gfs shows the trough relaxing day 11 thru 14 it heads back day 15. That ridge gets reestablished and it's sends the flow SE. To b fair its been manic in its d 10 thru 15 during its last 4 runs so I expect it to look different at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Maybe the CA drought will change the economics of "imported" vs. desalinated water: http://articles.latimes.com/2013/nov/13/news/la-ol-ocean-water-desalination-20131112 Seems they are positively addicted to diverting fresh water from mountain sources. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I wrote it before the 18z gfs shows the trough relaxing day 11 thru 14 it heads back day 15. That ridge gets reestablished and it's sends the flow SE. To b fair its been manic in its d 10 thru 15 during its last 4 runs so I expect it to look different at 0z oops, but agreed.....and probably 0z mon also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Have opinions changed a bit on this "cold/snowy" period? Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Didn't see anyone mention the 18z, hr372 and doesn't really look to warm to me A ridge near the Aleutians almost always means a bad pattern for us. We'll see what happens though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 A ridge near the Aleutians almost always means a bad pattern for us. We'll see what happens though.Not necessarily...10-11 and 08-09 both had Aleutian ridge patterns that resulted favorably for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Not necessarily...10-11 and 08-09 both had Aleutian ridge patterns that resulted favorably for the area. In this case, it'll probably work well for us. Without blocking, the NE/NNE will do well with the upcoming pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 Not necessarily...10-11 and 08-09 both had Aleutian ridge patterns that resulted favorably for the area. 10-11 was my best winter in my lifetime. I live in southeast ma. I had 2-3 feet on the ground for an epic stretch from late December to February. This year has more cold as well, I thin everyone gets in on it. I think you want to relax the cold some, get storms in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2014 Share Posted January 19, 2014 I wrote it before the 18z gfs shows the trough relaxing day 11 thru 14 it heads back day 15. That ridge gets reestablished and it's sends the flow SE. To b fair its been manic in its d 10 thru 15 during its last 4 runs so I expect it to look different at 0z The GFS has a tendency to go through stretches where it wants to break persistent patterns down beyond Day 10, remember last winter and in 11-12 it kept trying to go cold at times and it never happened...I do think we will eventually snap this long wave pattern in the next 8 weeks or so but just do not know when, it may not be til nearly the end of March, the -EPO pattern is extremely hard to bust as evidenced in the springs of 94 and 03...we stayed in them relatively long and by far this winter is probably the most persistent -EPO we've seen the last 20 years along with 93-94 and 02-03. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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