Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 GYX/PWM Rank H8temp Year Month Day Hour(Z) WMO 1 ‐31.7 2004 1 16 12 74389 2 ‐31.3 1981 1 5 0 72606 3 ‐31 1982 1 18 0 7260 4 ‐29.8 1994 1 19 12 72606 5 ‐29.7 2004 1 16 0 74389 6 ‐29.5 2004 1 14 12 74389 GYX/PWM Rank H8temp Year Month Day Hour(Z) WMO 1 ‐30.7 1966 2 21 12 72606 2 ‐29.2 1995 2 7 0 74389 3 ‐28.8 1968 2 21 12 72606 4 ‐28.1 2003 2 14 12 74389 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 whats interesting about looking at the 850 records is the great correlation with big snow events within days of those records, Chathams are very interesting.. FYI this i sthe prog for GFS prog for Chatman later this month 498 512 -34 ° -24 Look here if interested http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/unr/soo/T850/low50-T850.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Given the cold coming any and the chance for storms - is it possible we see another snowstorm with temps in the low single digits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Given the cold coming any and the chance for storms - is it possible we see another snowstorm with temps in the low single digits? thats was unusual but yes its possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Ride Scooter. You guys will produce in this pattern. Haha that sounds awful. I think later on as the pattern relaxes we'll do fine. I don't really see it happening with that -20 to -30C H85 love rotating over-top, but as that relaxes, I think the deeper interior will get their chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Yeah it would be rare for them to not get something in this pattern. The analog dates were snowy for them too. But there is a fairly reasonable chance (at least in terms of medium range probs) that SNE gets something on the 22nd and they get skunked....I'm sure the complaining would reach to a fever pitch up there if that happened before things turn for the better.I've turned the corner...I fully expect what you said to happen. It's been brutal but we've hit bottom and are on the way up. I think SNE has the best chances over the next 10 days or so, but if we can get the cold to relax, it should come back this way.I know you guys always say cold winters are snowy on the composites up here but these arctic intrusions and the storm track chances really show me why Ginx and Jerry love the deep cold up here. We go -20F and they snow at 15F. If we are snowing at 15F, they are usually worrying about p-type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Looking through some stuff at the Rapid City site, getting near the bottom of 850 records for past mid Jan heading into Feb, very close for places like GYX with a -30 showing up on the GFS gridded data, would tie it. How does that cold translate down this way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ono Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I think eventually it has the potential to have a semi-SWFE type look as things retro a bit. But yeah, I think next week may have more of a cstl risk and we'll see the VT peeps head for the granite massif of Mansfield. you take it for granite, and they're full of schist... bad geology joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I've turned the corner...I fully expect what you said to happen. It's been brutal but we've hit bottom and are on the way up. I think SNE has the best chances over the next 10 days or so, but if we can get the cold to relax, it should come back this way. I know you guys always say cold winters are snowy on the composites up here but these arctic intrusions and the storm track chances really show me why Ginx and Jerry love the deep cold up here. We go -20F and they snow at 15F. If we are snowing at 15F, they are usually worrying about p-type. You'll prob be in good spirits sooner anyway...the arctic front and southern edge of the associated clipper will probably make it dump there on the upslope spots for several hours on Sunday and you'll quickly forget the recent garbage. The non-upslope spots may have to wait longer for more meaningful snows...but it will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 I think eventually it has the potential to have a semi-SWFE type look as things retro a bit. But yeah, I think next week may have more of a cstl risk and we'll see the VT peeps head for the granite massif of Mansfield. you take it for granite, and they're full of schist... bad geology joke. Meh, I don't need to head for the granite massif of Mansfield. I've got one of the deepest granite quarrys in the world just up the street. This is the hole that Jayhawk needs to gif the VT crew jumping into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Little inverted trough going on there Sat-Sun on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Very cold and BONE dry on the GFS. Awesome. I'll have a meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Englander Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Smiling at the cold air next week. We will get there.... Yes I am very new to the board but I have been following since 2010 .Good Morning to all you good folks. Impressive fog late last night around these parts. Visib. was as low as I have seen it in an advisory for some time.Feeling positive about the weeks ahead for some more typical winter wx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Little inverted trough going on there Sat-Sun on the GFS? Ya...but Separate thread for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Coldest GFS run ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Coldest GFS run ever? Ginxy ice skating to Block Island? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Coldest GFS run ever? What does it show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 What does it show? Extreme cold for the CONUS east of the Rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Englander Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Extreme cold for the CONUS east of the Rockies. Very Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 Ginxy ice skating to Block Island? Yeah that's like Jan 04 kind of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 LOL Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 While the GFS is coldest, the GGEM is so amped up that Bar Harbor, ME is looking at a 960mb low overhead and New England is initially warm before changing to wind driven snow, this is a sign that the most amped model is in fact amped up, while the least amped model is the GFS is naturally progressive in these patterns. I think EURO comes further west and stronger with the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 While the GFS is coldest, the GGEM is so amped up that Bar Harbor, ME is looking at a 960mb low overhead and New England is initially warm before changing to wind driven snow, this is a sign that the most amped model is in fact amped up, while the least amped model is the GFS is naturally progressive in these patterns. I think EURO comes further west and stronger with the 12z run. which threat is that the 22nd/23rd deal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 While the GFS is coldest, the GGEM is so amped up that Bar Harbor, ME is looking at a 960mb low overhead and New England is initially warm before changing to wind driven snow, this is a sign that the most amped model is in fact amped up, while the least amped model is the GFS is naturally progressive in these patterns. I think EURO comes further west and stronger with the 12z run. Cape Cod, MA is 95% rain on the GGEM. James, I love you son but your weenieism needs a governor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 That's not just an extreme cold outbreak, that has longevity followed by activity in the stratosphere that would lock that in place into February, with storm potential all the while. Probably would be talking about a very extensive snow pack east of the Rockies ...with the related positive feedback into supporting arctic surface temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 That's not just an extreme cold outbreak, that has longevity followed by activity in the stratosphere that would lock that in place into February, with storm potential all the while. Probably would be talking about a very extensive snow pack east of the Rockies ...with the related positive feedback into supporting arctic surface temperatures. Keep talking dirty to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 That's not just an extreme cold outbreak, that has longevity followed by activity in the stratosphere that would lock that in place into February, with storm potential all the while. Probably would be talking about a very extensive snow pack east of the Rockies ...with the related positive feedback into supporting arctic surface temperatures. There are going be some x rated positive feedbacks all over keyboards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The Canadian reminds me of March 8, 2005 except it occurs in January. That would be epic...I'd root for it even if it starts as rain initially. The reality is that the model is likely not even close to correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 That's not just an extreme cold outbreak, that has longevity followed by activity in the stratosphere that would lock that in place into February, with storm potential all the while. Probably would be talking about a very extensive snow pack east of the Rockies ...with the related positive feedback into supporting arctic surface temperatures. La epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 16, 2014 Share Posted January 16, 2014 The Canadian reminds me of March 8, 2005 except it occurs in January. That would be epic...I'd root for it even if it starts as rain initially. The reality is that the model is likely not even close to correct. Over-amplifies literally every single trough that digs from the Plains to SE. Every time, I swear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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