Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I hate the00z euro..I bet it has no 2nd wave 2nd wave is an improvement. 18z tues w/ 12z run on left and 0z run on right: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Models are horrible for this event. lol. So much variability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Now the Euro rocks Philly, for such a great model it sure flip flops a lot as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 03z SREFs 24 hr QPF show 0.5 frozen at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 6Z Nam confirms why the nam is a terrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KAOS Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Yes...the models suck for this region. And this region sucks. This will be a non event....Mark my words. Book it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 6Z Nam confirms why the nam is a terrible model. slightly concerning because that's echoing RAP/HRRR in warming up fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 slightly concerning because that's echoing RAP/HRRR in warming up fast RAP temps are bunk. Has it at 28 here right now. It's 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 At the same time those three are really sucking at getting a grip on the precip currently in TN and KY. Blatantly missing on RAP, Underdone on HRRR, NAM12 and NAM4. Useless models and their mixed signals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 So here is the difference in the forecast justification for the WSW and the WWA for LWX- Advisory- ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET FOLLOWED BY UPTO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE. Warning- ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET...FOLLOWED BYA QUARTER INCH OF ICE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 What's your point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 06z guidance so much drier and warmer. Such an embarrassment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 06z guidance so much drier and warmer. Such an embarrassment. Yep. How many days did the models "have this", only to lose it at game time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 It is going to pull itself together at some point. It is a long duration event. But it might kill our snow window which is what a lot of us cared about. Plus there will be pulses and lulls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 What's your point? There is no difference in that forecast. But you are in the warning... I think... I am in the WWA in Catonsville. Congrats!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 RAP doesn't really get moisture in here until 11-12 or so...then a burst...and then a lull.....I'm sure the mid levels are torchy too....our snow window doesn't look very promising. hopefully the wedge can stay intact...6z NAM had DCA at 34 degrees at 18z and then cooling again.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 There is no difference in that forecast. But you are in the warning... I think... I am in the WWA in Catonsville. Congrats!!!! There is a difference. I'm under a warning for .25 of ice, which is warning criteria. You're under an advisory because ice isn't forecasted to be above .2. So while minor, it makes the difference between an advisory and a warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 RAP doesn't really get moisture in here until 11-12 or so...then a burst...and then a lull.....I'm sure the mid levels are torchy too....our snow window doesn't look very promising. hopefully the wedge can stay intact...6z NAM had DCA at 34 degrees at 18z and then cooling again.....lol Gfs still looked promising...nam was really uninspiring for back here...even for freezing rain..basically less .75 for the entire event rain included Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 06z guidance so much drier and warmer. Such an embarrassment. Using an intermediate run for a nowcast event is not the best method in forecasting. Just sayin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 There is a difference. I'm under a warning for .25 of ice, which is warning criteria. You're under an advisory because ice isn't forecasted to be above .2. So while minor, it makes the difference between an advisory and a warning I know... I know... I just wish someone down there had the guts to just come out and say... WWA for for everyone.... light sleet event for everyone... but I know that they are in the public safety business... so there is no shame in busting big... anyway.. it is just the beginning.. lets see if it evolves.... the fake Accurweather radar is filling in nicely.. My initial guess was for the dirt spots between the grass to fill in with a little bit of white... I am just bitter cause it looks like we arent even gonna see that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I know... I know... I just wish someone down there had the guts to just come out and say... WWA for for everyone.... light sleet event for everyone... but I know that they are in the public safety business... so there is no shame in busting big... anyway.. it is just the beginning.. lets see if it evolves.... the fake Accurweather radar is filling in nicely.. My initial guess was for the dirt spots between the grass to fill in with a little bit of white... I am just bitter cause it looks like we arent even gonna see that Dude, relax....the storm is just starting to take shape up this way...precipitation isnt even suppose to start for another couple hours...man your a negative nancy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmorelights Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Always, emotion unfortunately wins out on these boards at t minus 1 to 6 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Damn. Bust meltdowns are happening way earlier than normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Damn. Bust meltdowns are happening way earlier than normal yea, i scanned the board when I first woke up and thought it was over. but looked at all the data and felt pretty good. Snow inside the beltway @ 8:30am is a big + imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 At least we have an event that seems to be verifying. I see flakes. I am not going to worry about how much. Score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I know... I know... I just wish someone down there had the guts to just come out and say... WWA for for everyone.... light sleet event for everyone... but I know that they are in the public safety business... so there is no shame in busting big... anyway.. it is just the beginning.. lets see if it evolves.... the fake Accurweather radar is filling in nicely.. My initial guess was for the dirt spots between the grass to fill in with a little bit of white... I am just bitter cause it looks like we arent even gonna see that At 7am this morning, before the storm was even supposed to start, you're bitter already and nitpicking about WWA vs Warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 FWIW... NAM was pretty cold and juicy. This too - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 NAM just decided that west of 95 may not go above freezing until close to sunrise We're still out of range though. We'll see what it says in 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 NAM bumps precip north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 The squirrels in my neighborhood are rubbing themselves on the trees and their tails are revolving in excited little circles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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