snow. Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 almost 2" of precip at DCA through monday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 GFS is really wet in the early morning. Heavy FZRA. The precip max hangs out in N VA/C MD area hrs 21 to 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 This is a really good (or bad) run for IAD-JYO guys Looks like we get to freezing at 10pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I'm paranoid. And rightfully so. I've wasted a lot of hours the last 2 years with this exercised. Trending away chaps me to no end. I've decided I am going to ignore the NAM profiles and if they are right and I start pinging at noon...so be it...I don't think any of us would be shocked by a quick flip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 almost 2" of precip at DCA through monday afternoon Wow...how much of that is after change over to all rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 GFS is probably still too warm at the sfc, and if it is indeed too warm, the QPF modeled would equate to a very bad ice situation for some. (especially if the NAM profiles were right) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Wow...how much of that is after change over to all rain? I would guess half? Its a cold rain in the mid 30s though... like 35/36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 The models have really barely changed in the past two or three days especially with sfc temps and timing of changeover. Precip specifics is kind of a wildcard.. I think we should treat it more like we do snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 jesus....1.75"+ qpf for IAD by 7am monday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I would guess half? Its a cold rain in the mid 30s though... like 35/36 GFS sounds like it's going colder on Monday even after we're done with snow/ice. Seems not too long ago it was pushing low 50s by Monday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 jesus....1.75"+ qpf for IAD by 7am monday morning All frozen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 jesus....1.75"+ qpf for IAD by 7am monday morningThat could be trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 jesus....1.75"+ qpf for IAD by 7am monday morning That could be a disaster for areas not that far north/west of the immediate metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 The models have really barely changed in the past two or three days especially with sfc temps and timing of changeover. Precip specifics is kind of a wildcard.. I think we should treat it more like we do snow maps. it is s big wildcard for this event..certianly more than most all....I think you're right..though the euro might give us a sense if the nam/gfs are onto something at least with the wetter solutions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 GFS sounds like it's going colder on Monday even after we're done with snow/ice. Seems not too long ago it was pushing low 50s by Monday afternoon.It's hard to warm effectively with no ripping sfc winds and no significant sun influence. Plus the frozen destruction all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 GFS sounds like it's going colder on Monday even after we're done with snow/ice. Seems not too long ago it was pushing low 50s by Monday afternoon. Yes, whatever falls will be locked in for a while. The sun won't do crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 All frozen? almost ...you probably go above at 5am...accordinh to the run verbatim....anyway...it is probably wrong, but might portend a wetter solution.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 GFS sounds like it's going colder on Monday even after we're done with snow/ice. Seems not too long ago it was pushing low 50s by Monday afternoon. That big warmup on Monday was something I was sure wasn't going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 It's hard to warm effectively with no ripping sfc winds and no significant sun influence. Plus the frozen destruction all around. True enough. Those 50+ temps projected for Monday the GFS had were from I think Thursday and early Friday runs. It's clearly backed away from that. As interesting as a good ice event would be, I would not look forward to frozen destruction and power outages. Here in MoCo, the king of the power outages every time a twig falls from a tree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I would say .3 or so is snow... we should sneak in another hour of snow after 18z IMO before sleet comes in maybe..I think profiles will support that when we see them...but this run is a huge wet outlier so I don't know...I think 1-2" is still a good call in general and we see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 It's hard to warm effectively with no ripping sfc winds and no significant sun influence. Plus the frozen destruction all around. And with no significant low to the west, it almost certainly can't happen now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 And with no significant low to the west, it almost certainly can't happen now. Absolutely. I don't remember the specifics in the middle of everything, but I think the GFS did have a stronger OH Valley low when it was trying to warm us into the 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 it is s big wildcard for this event..certianly more than most all....I think you're right..though the euro might give us a sense if the nam/gfs are onto something at least with the wetter solutions...Seems good consensus for potential up to about 1" frozen in some zone perhaps a bit more. More than that seems too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Matt, I'm thinking someone West of the cities (not too far) stands a fair shot at 4" sn/ip. I think I have a legit shot at 2". Too aggressive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 When ZR is on the line-- .5 total vs 1.2 is huge. Thanks GFS, NAM and RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Looks like we get to freezing at 10pm? Yeah, 32 degree line is at the Fall line (I-95) at 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 GFS has a bullseye in northern VA showing 2.5-3" of snow from 15z-18z. This will likely be a 4"+ event for whoever lands in the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Yeah, 32 degree line is at the Fall line (I-95) at 10pm. Thanks. I'm willing to bet we hang on just a little bit longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/409531353080664065 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Thanks. I'm willing to bet we hang on just a little bit longer. I'll add my bet, the Euro and NAM are both a decent bit colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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