wisconsinwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 haha, I punted December back in October Yeah, and I'm sure you're darn proud of that, only a matter of model runs til you punt January too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 A lot of areas that got hit with tornadoes on 11/17 are going to be dealing with snow/ice now. Not good for them. yup....hopefully those most affected by the tornados have a friend or relative to hunker down with for a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I suppose it's a hangover from my six winters in Ottawa. I was checking old data and even in cold Decembers like 2000, a high of minus 5 or 6 Celsius was average for the second week of December. It was the overnight lows that pulled our mean temperature down. January is, by far, the coldest month. Yeah months like January 2009, Jan 2011 and Feb 2007 featured some decent cold shots. December 2000 was an awesome month, almost an exact replica occurred in Dec 2008, both La Nina s lol. LOL, Yeah Ottawa is colder than Toronto given its location. The Lake and UHI really effect our temperature readings. If it weren't for them, i'm sure Toronto wouldn't be any warmer than Ottawa during the Winter. Dec 1989 was really cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Yeah months like January 2009, Jan 2011 and Feb 2007 featured some decent cold shots. December 2000 was an awesome month, almost an exact replica occurred in Dec 2008, both La Nina s lol. LOL, Yeah Ottawa is colder than Toronto given its location. The Lake and UHI really effect our temperature readings. If it weren't for them, i'm sure Toronto wouldn't be any warmer than Ottawa during the Winter. Dec 1989 was really cold. I agree about the two features you mentioned, but sans them, I still think lesser latitude would still make Toronto a bit warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I agree about the two features you mentioned, but sans them, I still think lesser latitude would still make Toronto a bit warmer. Yes true I agree, it does play a role. But if we were to minus out the other two and keep this, I would only see about a 1.5C in difference between Ottawa and Toronto during Winter. Latitude does however, play a role in aiding more CAD when storms pass by. You'll notice Ottawa getting a decent amount of snowfall whereas Toronto gets rain. Most of this falls into location and the Lake warming temperatures up in regions close by. If you were to look at Buttonville you'd come across a much colder climatology than YYZ. For example, compare Jan 1994. The Lake has its negatives and positives, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Wonder if Chicago will go for the futility record this year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Some ugly stuff being shown on the models. Starting to question any call for a front end loaded winter. It certainly isnt looking that way for the majority of the sub forum. Good news is that the robins will be back in town in about 90 days or so. Lol Deedler called for a back loaded winter snow-wise. Nostradamus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 These weak storms with undefined moisture bands on the northern side are like the shades of 2011-12...can it get any more boring? Cold and dry aint my style. Hopefully we loosen this progressive pattern a bit and develop better digging storms. Zzzzz I see absolutely zero similarities between 2011-12 and 2013-14 thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Wonder if Chicago will go for the futility record this year? I highly doubt it will be that bad this year. I'm still thinking northern parts of this subforum may do well in the medium to long range. We might thread the needle with a cutter next weekend as some ensembles are indicating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I see absolutely zero similarities between 2011-12 and 2013-14 thus far. 2012-2013 and 2011-2012 were twins separated at birth until Jan 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 2012-2013 and 2011-2012 were twins separated at birth until Jan 20th. Not for this part of the area. Even though last winter was backloaded, we had 6.3" with the Dec 26th storm then a 3" snowfall 3 days later. Nice snowpack for a 2.5 week stretch there. In 2011-12 there was never a stretch the entire winter of snowpack, just numerous 1-3" snows that melted in a few days (one nice snow around 5" in Feb but even that lasted just 5 days). Its more understandable for your area because you had less snowpack last year during Christmas/New years than we did, plus you had the nice Nov 30th snowstorm in 2011 that we missed. So the 2 winters were much more similar in their first halves in your neck of the woods than mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 2012-2013 and 2011-2012 were twins separated at birth until Jan 20th. Huh? Last December was fairly good after Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 Let me just join in: I'm all sorts of irritated that I'm going to miss to the south with this storm, then be dry slotted on the second wave of energy. Outside of the freak March storm that dumped a foot of snow that was gone a day later, I'm still looking at zero 6"+ storms since the GHD storm. I'll just go back to look at the pictures of the Valentine's Day Blizzard. Still haven't had a 6" storm here since the GHD storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 yup....hopefully those most affected by the tornados have a friend or relative to hunker down with for a few days I'm wondering how all the tarped roofs are going to hold up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 5, 2013 Share Posted December 5, 2013 I don't want to clutter the storm thread, so I'll take it here. Talking about a "cheap midnight high", it was 59° at midnight at FWA and was down to 33° at 4PM, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I don't want to clutter the storm thread, so I'll take it here. Talking about a "cheap midnight high", it was 59° at midnight at FWA and was down to 33° at 4PM, I got ya beat...I was 55 and 27 at those times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Huh? Last December was fairly good after Christmas. Speak for your own region. Chicago was left in the dust until late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Toronto had 0.3" on the season on December 20th last year. Ended up with almost 50". Only reason I haven't resorted to hysteria yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Huh? Last December was fairly good after Christmas. Not really, unless you were along the I-94 corridor with all of the LES snow. It wasn't as bad as 2011-2012, but I wouldn't call it "fairly good" either. I still have a sour taste in my mouth after the 2/26/12 storm (1.5" of liquid and only 2-6 inches of snowfall with marginal profiles). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Not really, unless you were along the I-94 corridor with all of the LES snow. It wasn't as bad as 2011-2012, but I wouldn't call it "fairly good" either. I still have a sour taste in my mouth after the 2/26/12 storm (1.5" of liquid and only 2-6 inches of snowfall with marginal profiles). He was referring to the last week of December. Last winter was fairly good here, but naturally I'm i94 biased. Im a bit pissy about missing the snow to the south, because we also missed last seasons last snowstorm. Missing the first and last few snowstorms of the season are tolerable if and only if we get more snow than those areas during the heart of winter (which USUALLY is the case). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slow poke Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I really didn't want to post in this thread so soon in the season but I really need some snow on the ground around home to get me in the Christmas spirit. The past two winters in my area have really stunk snow wise and its looking like this season is starting out like another one by the looks of the long range forcasts I have seen. All you south east MI posters, have you guys all seen these maps the NWS, DTX, puts together every year? Here is the link www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/cms.php?n=seasonal_snow Do these maps look somewhat accurate to you guys? They seem fairly accurate to me for my area in northern St Clair county. Only 30ish inches last season and 20ish inches the season before stinks, three seasons in a row of sub average snowfall is for the birds for a family that loves to play in the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Yeah, and I'm sure you're darn proud of that, only a matter of model runs til you punt January too. As he should be. Looking to be a damn good call if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 I really didn't want to post in this thread so soon in the season but I really need some snow on the ground around home to get me in the Christmas spirit. The past two winters in my area have really stunk snow wise and its looking like this season is starting out like another one by the looks of the long range forcasts I have seen. All you south east MI posters, have you guys all seen these maps the NWS, DTX, puts together every year? Here is the link www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/cms.php?n=seasonal_snow Do these maps look somewhat accurate to you guys? They seem fairly accurate to me for my area in northern St Clair county. Only 30ish inches last season and 20ish inches the season before stinks, three seasons in a row of sub average snowfall is for the birds for a family that loves to play in the snow. No they are not accurate at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Wonder if Chicago will go for the futility record this year? last year was a good example of just how difficult that record that was...this year is going to suck but I'm done calling for futility records, it's just too extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Well at least we had some interesting weather so far. Hit 58 degrees here this morning and had nice thunderstorm move through last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I better order my keg for my annual new years party...didn't realize the month was over... Personally, I'm looking forward to the cutter on the 17th and the x-mas blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 last year was a good example of just how difficult that record that was...this year is going to suck but I'm done calling for futility records, it's just too extreme. Yeah, last year the writing was beyond on the wall....it was a full fledged gang of graffiti artists going to town on the wall with how the winter was going to go.... I think this year will be better...which doesn't say much considering where the bar was set last year. With all of these upper lake bombs, it's just a matter of time until we get one of them to settle a couple 100 miles further south...IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I see absolutely zero similarities between 2011-12 and 2013-14 thus far. By that i didnt mean the season as a whole, LOL. This year thus far is much better than 2011 in terms of temperatures. I was specifically pointing out the "storm" next week. I see alot of similarities to what we had seen in 2011-12. They're like dried up potatoes, dull and boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I better order my keg for my annual new years party...didn't realize the month was over... Personally, I'm looking forward to the cutter on the 17th and the x-mas blizzard Man, that would be awesome. I'm on vacation from the 13th through Christmas, so I'm game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I really didn't want to post in this thread so soon in the season but I really need some snow on the ground around home to get me in the Christmas spirit. The past two winters in my area have really stunk snow wise and its looking like this season is starting out like another one by the looks of the long range forcasts I have seen. All you south east MI posters, have you guys all seen these maps the NWS, DTX, puts together every year? Here is the link www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/cms.php?n=seasonal_snow Do these maps look somewhat accurate to you guys? They seem fairly accurate to me for my area in northern St Clair county. Only 30ish inches last season and 20ish inches the season before stinks, three seasons in a row of sub average snowfall is for the birds for a family that loves to play in the snow. Those maps are not accurate. They are doing the best with the resources they have, but those maps need to be used with EXTREME caution. They use the total snowfall reported at coop and official climate stations each season and plot them out, and based on the amounts they do the color coding, etc. Some spotters are good at reporting snowfall, some are terrible with plenty of missing data, and that skews whatever area thats in. For immediate Detroit area, Dearborn and Grosse Pointe are a joke, so its sort of unrealistically bringing the curve down near Detroit. Best way to look at it is find out who are the spotters nearest you and if you feel they do a pretty good job on a daily basis, then its probably accurate for your area. What city do you live in? It would take several very lean snow years in the near future to even out the surplus the region has accrued since 2000, and I sure as hell hope that we dont see that happening. What I CAN tell you is that it is WAY too early to be worried in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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