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December 2013 Obs


metalicwx366

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CAE......no zr or ip forecasted

 

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE RIDGING WEAKENING TONIGHT AS A TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. THE NAM IS MOST PRONOUNCED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND SHOWS GREATER MOISTURE SPREADING INTO MAINLY THE EAST PART.
THE MODELS DISPLAYS CATEGORICAL POPS AND HAS AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
0.01 OF AN INCH IN THE NORTHWEST TO 0.1 OF AN INCH IN THE
SOUTHEAST SECTION. THE NAM HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT. BASED ON THE
INITIAL DRYNESS AND THE H5 CONFLUENT PATTERN SHOWN BY THE NAM PLUS
JUST WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOWN BY BOTH MODELS...WE BELIEVE THE
NAM POPS ARE OVERDONE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BELIEVE
CLOUDINESS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE THE MAIN EFFECT FROM THE TROUGH.

PRECIPITATION TYPE IS A CONCERN BECAUSE OF THE LOW DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
CLOUDINESS SPREADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA PLUS WEAK WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD HELP HOLD UP TEMPERATURES. THE NAM DISPLAYS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WHERE MOISTURE IS DEEP ENOUGH
FOR PRECIPITATION. THE MODEL ALSO KEEPS WET-BULB TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST PART WHERE THERE WILL BE
LESS SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION AND LESS EVAPORATIVE COOLING
POTENTIAL. ALL OF THE LATEST SREF MEMBERS KEEP THE TEMPERATURE
ABOVE FREEZING. BASED ON THESE FACTORS WE FORECASTED RAIN INSTEAD
OF FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

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Woke up to a very light glaze in Chapel Hill.

No such luck here, cars had a little ice on the roofs but that was about it, not even enough to wet the driveway. Temp just went above freezing, and now the rain is finally falling, go figure. Bands earlier were off the my west around the triangle, and just east over the eastern half of Pitt. 34/30 -RN

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