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Wednesday Soaker Discussing


CT Rain

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BTV has a good discussion on the system... I see they are mentioning icing and I was wondering about that.  A lot of the models have 2-m temps not getting above 34-35F for most of this area, and a good chunk of the heavy rain falls at 32-34F.  If the track goes east of us, it keeps winds more N/NE and could help keep the low level cold in place.  BTV also mentions power outages...channeling their inner Blizz.

 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 209 PM EST SUNDAY...INALLY SOME CONSENSUS IN ALL MAJOR
MODELS WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE LATECOMER TO THE PARTY FOR THIS
MID WEEK...HOLIDAY TRAVEL STORM.

THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION TOUCHES UPON ALOT OF THE EVOLVING SYSTEM
BUT THE CURRENT WED FCST IS BASED ON A GFS/ECMWF/NAM TRACK OF
NYC-ORH-CON. CNDN GEM IS MORE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VLY BUT ERRING TO A
SLIGHTLY COLDER...MORE PROBLEMATIC SOLUTION.

IN GENERAL...A SNOW/MIXED START WITH GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO
MIXED/RAIN IN VT AND CHMPL VLY NY WITH SOME POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING
SNOW AND A FLASH FREEZE MARCHING FROM WEST TO EAST AFT SFC LOW
PASSAGE WED EVE/WED NGT. ADRNDKS/ST LWRNC VLY IN THE POTENTIAL
SWEET-SPOT FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL ALONG WITH SOME MIXING.

QPF AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA...LIGHTER SIDE ACRS
ST LWRNC VLY WHERE IT WILL STAY COLDEST. WPC WINTER WX GRAPHIC
PLACES 6-12 INCHES IN ADRNDKS/ST LWRNC VLY AND QUITE POSSIBLE. LLVL
NNE JET ACRS ST LWRNV VLY WILL ADD PROBLEMS WITH CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING SNOW.

LLVL TEMP PROFILES AND SHARP GRADIENT LEADS TO CONCERNS OF ICING IN
INTERIOR VT AND CT RVR VLY DUE TO STG INVERSIONS. IN ADDITION...A
NNE LLVL FLOW IN ST LWRNC VLY THAT MAY ADVECT LLVL COLD AIR TOWARD
NRN CHAMPL VLY FOR A WINTRY MIX.

AGAIN...LATE WED/WED NGT AS SFC LOW DEPARTS STG CAA AND WRAPARD PCPN
CHANGING TO SNOW AND FALLING TMPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FLASH
FREEZE SITUATION ON ROADS...TREES AND UTILITY LINES AND WITH NNW
WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KTS PSBLY BLOWING SNOW AND POWER OUTAGES.


THANKSGIVING...BLUSTERY AND LEFTOVER MTN SNOW SHOWERS BUT COLD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

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Huh? That's what I was confused on. There's been 2m maps posted of 50's and 60's and talk of furnace ens members and a track up the Hudson River and then on air we see a cold rain and 44

 

I have 50 for HVN and 44 for BDL. If the front winds up over CT it's a chilly/wet day. Could certainly wind up near 60 but not going to go crazy about climo yet.

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That storm was essentially sub-tropical.

Could even argue that at one point it may have been a hurricane 250 miles south of Cape Cod but yep at landfall it was definitely Sub-Tropical with gusts to 100mph in some places so in no way is this possible storm going to be anything like that but it could be a nasty wind storm still

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BTV has a good discussion on the system... I see they are mentioning icing and I was wondering about that. A lot of the models have 2-m temps not getting above 34-35F for most of this area, and a good chunk of the heavy rain falls at 32-34F. If the track goes east of us, it keeps winds more N/NE and could help keep the low level cold in place. BTV also mentions power outages...channeling their inner Blizz.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 209 PM EST SUNDAY...INALLY SOME CONSENSUS IN ALL MAJOR

MODELS WITH THE 12Z GFS BEING THE LATECOMER TO THE PARTY FOR THIS

MID WEEK...HOLIDAY TRAVEL STORM.

THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION TOUCHES UPON ALOT OF THE EVOLVING SYSTEM

BUT THE CURRENT WED FCST IS BASED ON A GFS/ECMWF/NAM TRACK OF

NYC-ORH-CON. CNDN GEM IS MORE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VLY BUT ERRING TO A

SLIGHTLY COLDER...MORE PROBLEMATIC SOLUTION.

IN GENERAL...A SNOW/MIXED START WITH GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO

MIXED/RAIN IN VT AND CHMPL VLY NY WITH SOME POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING

SNOW AND A FLASH FREEZE MARCHING FROM WEST TO EAST AFT SFC LOW

PASSAGE WED EVE/WED NGT. ADRNDKS/ST LWRNC VLY IN THE POTENTIAL

SWEET-SPOT FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL ALONG WITH SOME MIXING.

QPF AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA...LIGHTER SIDE ACRS

ST LWRNC VLY WHERE IT WILL STAY COLDEST. WPC WINTER WX GRAPHIC

PLACES 6-12 INCHES IN ADRNDKS/ST LWRNC VLY AND QUITE POSSIBLE. LLVL

NNE JET ACRS ST LWRNV VLY WILL ADD PROBLEMS WITH CONSIDERABLE

BLOWING SNOW.

LLVL TEMP PROFILES AND SHARP GRADIENT LEADS TO CONCERNS OF ICING IN

INTERIOR VT AND CT RVR VLY DUE TO STG INVERSIONS. IN ADDITION...A

NNE LLVL FLOW IN ST LWRNC VLY THAT MAY ADVECT LLVL COLD AIR TOWARD

NRN CHAMPL VLY FOR A WINTRY MIX.

AGAIN...LATE WED/WED NGT AS SFC LOW DEPARTS STG CAA AND WRAPARD PCPN

CHANGING TO SNOW AND FALLING TMPS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A FLASH

FREEZE SITUATION ON ROADS...TREES AND UTILITY LINES AND WITH NNW

WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30KTS PSBLY BLOWING SNOW AND POWER OUTAGES.

THANKSGIVING...BLUSTERY AND LEFTOVER MTN SNOW SHOWERS BUT COLD

THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

I really hope i see a good frozen event up there, prob is im takin a dartmouth coach bus from bos to Lebanon w my friends , then his parents are pickin us up at 4pm. Roads nw of Lebanon could be "interesting" by 4-5pm.

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Interesting comment from met in Pa thread wrt to northern stream disturbance being in an area that is notorious for poor sampling. I guess it means models may bounce from C.C to Montreal even at this stage.

There is still a huge amount of uncertainty with this system, as expressed looking at the 18z GFS ensembles (below, which are typically under dispersive). The spread in primary low tracks range from Cape Cod, MA to Montreal, Canada. Moreover, the shortwave digging into the great lakes by 60-72 hours is originating from a large region of shear vorticity which is often very poorly modeled when the feature is strung out over a longwave ridge. Expect a few more substantial shifts before the models lock on to an optimal solution.

gfs-ens_lowlocs_us_7.png

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