Potential Record Breaking Cold Sunday/Sunday Night---Late Nov Discussion

[Bostonseminole]

Nothing has changed for the storm system as far as I'm concerned...its still 5-6 days out. I get that it is too irresistable for many to weenie out over details, but really, it doesn't mean much of anything right now.

 

As for the cold shot which is much more imminent, MOS numbers fell a bit (as expected when you get closer to anomalous cold shots) but I still think they are way too warm in some spots....like for BDR, MAV guidance is going a high of 37F for Sunday afternoon...not a chance. Its a 2m temp kind of day again.

 

 

with possible impact of travel, I bet we start getting hype by this weekend.

[Ginx snewx]

Just finished blowing the last of the leaves out of the beds and yard and into the woods in a soaking, cold November rain. Yard work is complete. Let the flakes fly long and deep.

Donny S. just threw in the towel and has gone cold Dec.

great period coming up

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

with possible impact of travel, I bet we start getting hype by this weekend.

Yeah if there is any threat of travel especially if snow could potentially in place travel in the big cities it will be the top story all weekend

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Pretty steady rain here at bridgewater state..... Got soaked going to class, not what I expected. Cold and raw too

[Bostonseminole]

I guess Matt is already honking..

 

http://www.mattnoyes.net/new_england_weather/2013/11/significant-travel-impact-likely-for-the-day-before-thanksgiving.html

[CoastalWx]

with possible impact of travel, I bet we start getting hype by this weekend.

It's begun with the leader of the clown parade Noyes.

[CoastalWx]

Pretty steady rain here at bridgewater state..... Got soaked going to class, not what I expected. Cold and raw too

I have to work Wed and Thurs. As much as I love a good storm, I really would rather not deal with this.

[Bostonseminole]

either way, I think anyone travelling (mostly by car) N and NW by West of this general area should be ready to make travel changes.

[Cold Miser]

Matt Noyes = Silly so far out.  SNE in the rain belt on his map too FTL.

[CoastalWx]

Going forward, there is still uncertainty with the MJO which has downstream effects on the EPO. The progs are a day old, but guidance is mostly weak with some going towards P3 and others weakly in the COD to maybe P1 or so. You begin to play with fire a bit near p3 but p1 would

Make for a better - EPO. This would be more for later in December.

[Bostonseminole]

Matt Noyes = Silly so far out.  SNE in the rain belt on his map too FTL.

 

yes, not sure what happened to him, he still can make some solid analysis when needed.

[forkyfork]

i'm sure maue/JB tweaked the snow algorithms to increase snow coverage.  those maps are god awful

[CT Rain]

I also noticed the 700mb 0c isotherm gets to about TOL to ORH for a brief time which means there may be a warm layer between 850 and 700mb. Those maps look way to generous.

 

850-700mb thicknesses quite high during the event on the Euro - those WxBell snow maps look way off to me. 

[Tropopause_Fold]

Snowing here in Portland I think? Tough to see out the window.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I have to work Wed and Thurs. As much as I love a good storm, I really would rather not deal with this.

Yeah I don't blame you, it could be a nightmare couple of days for you

[Brian5671]

i'm sure maue/JB tweaked the snow algorithms to increase snow coverage.  those maps are god awful

[forkyfork]

 

the map shows snow here and 850's never get below freezing during the event

[dryslot]

Snowing here in Portland I think? Tough to see out the window.

 

You in Maine?

[Bostonseminole]

that meteogram generator page is a weenies dream!.. not sure how much stock to put in it.. has KBED with 3" of snow via the GFS

[Tropopause_Fold]

Snowing here in Portland I think? Tough to see out the window.

You in Maine?

Yeah been here a few days. I haven't really been following the local weather but swear there was sleet earlier and snow just a few minutes ago

[dryslot]

Yeah been here a few days. I haven't really been following the local weather but swear there was sleet earlier and snow just a few minutes ago

 

Its -SN here right now, Mainejayhawk is there and reported earlier some -SN/PL so probably right

[CoastalWx]

I know it's silly to discuss details, but I noticed the GFS is chilly for areas like ORH on north for the storm next week.  I see why it furnaces aloft, but my guess is that it may be too warm with that depiction...I've seen the GFS do this before. Bombing low locks in ageostrophic flow too. It actually has 950 temps below -1C at ORH, but torching above 800 mb. It's unusual to see those temps with that low track, but don't forget it's early in the season and the source region for that warmth is down east of FL.  So not only is it the track going to be difficult...the atmosphere also may not cooperate either in terms of figuring out ptype. Verbatim you'd have FZRA in spots with a low SE of ACK by 40 miles or so. Not sure I buy that but who knows.

[CoastalWx]

Actually the 850 low is pretty far west from the srfc low, so now I see why. Jeez that's kind of weird to see it so far displaced. My guess is the srfc low would probably end up further west IF that happened, but again..too early to talk about that stuff in detail.

[ORH_wxman]

with possible impact of travel, I bet we start getting hype by this weekend.

 

 

Yep...I will cringe too...especially if the model spread is still high. At some point, we'll probably have to have a thread specific for the storm, because its going to get pretty crowded in here with everyone weenieing out over the OP runs...even if they are 114 hours out still.

[Go Kart Mozart]

I didn't expect an most of day light steady rain today. Guess I have to get my head out of D3+ once in awhile...

Yeah, that focus on the big prize out in the future is a funny thing.  How many times have friends or co-workers, who know you spend hours pouring over maps, model runs, and chat boards, asked you, "what will the weather be like tomorrow?".

 

And your response is....."uhhhh, I don't know".

[dryslot]

Yep...I will cringe too...especially if the model spread is still high. At some point, we'll probably have to have a thread specific for the storm, because its going to get pretty crowded in here with everyone weenieing out over the OP runs...even if they are 114 hours out still.

 

Yup, I was going to wait until tomorrow to start one if it still looks like a possibility, But it may have to be done sooner depending on what happens at 12z

[Baroclinic Zone]

I know it's silly to discuss details, but I noticed the GFS is chilly for areas like ORH on north for the storm next week.  I see why it furnaces aloft, but my guess is that it may be too warm with that depiction...I've seen the GFS do this before. Bombing low locks in ageostrophic flow too. It actually has 950 temps below -1C at ORH, but torching above 800 mb. It's unusual to see those temps with that low track, but don't forget it's early in the season and the source region for that warmth is down east of FL.  So not only is it the track going to be difficult...the atmosphere also may not cooperate either in terms of figuring out ptype. Verbatim you'd have FZRA in spots with a low SE of ACK by 40 miles or so. Not sure I buy that but who knows.

As long as it intensifies just right there will definitely be a tight N-S gradient as it passes by.  Slanted thermal profile too, with warmer air aloft.

[ORH_wxman]

Yup, I was going to wait until tomorrow to start one if it still looks like a possibility, But it may have to be done sooner depending on what happens at 12z

 

 

We have like 15 more GFS runs and 8 more Euro runs just to get us to 48 hours out before the event...people will drive themselves crazy sweating the detail oscillations on guidance. I would strongly lean toward ensembles at this point just checking to see if they drastically changed the storm evolution...otherwise its just model noise.

 

But I know everyone is waiting for that first real winter event to track that is more than just minor accumulations...so its natural to get excited about 2 days before we'd normally be tracking it in mid-winter. But that doesn't magically make the models more skillful by 48 hours.

 

Still an eternity for this to trend significantly in any direction.

[weathafella]

with possible impact of travel, I bet we start getting hype by this weekend.

It's begun with the leader of the clown parade Noyes.

Lol.... I needed a good laugh!

[dryslot]

We have like 15 more GFS runs and 8 more Euro runs just to get us to 48 hours out before the event...people will drive themselves crazy sweating the detail oscillations on guidance. I would strongly lean toward ensembles at this point just checking to see if they drastically changed the storm evolution...otherwise its just model noise.

 

But I know everyone is waiting for that first real winter event to track that is more than just minor accumulations...so its natural to get excited about 2 days before we'd normally be tracking it in mid-winter. But that doesn't magically make the models more skillful by 48 hours.

 

Still an eternity for this to trend significantly in any direction.

 

With the ensembles over the last day being west of a lot of the op runs that is a flag, But like you said, We are an eternity away from the event, The more realistic time frame i feel is to wait until Sunday at the earliest, But with all the public hype out there, Besides it being a major holiday, It almost makes it impossible to hold back folks excitement when you have professionals in the business putting the hype wheel in motion