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Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Maybe a sneaky mid level warm layer in SE areas?

Yeah probably some pingers, though down there in the EWB-PYM belt, they warmed to like 40F at the sfc, so it wouldn't matter for them anyway...basically BOS-PVD and northwestward was all snow.

Now maybe we can get this about 150 hours closer with that solution.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

At least with this system it doesn't appear to be much of anything in our way that could push this out to sea...no high pressure sliding down the OV, PV doesn't look like it's going to screw us over, NAO looks like it will be relaxing a bit, things look better phasing wise as well. Hopefully this is the one.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

At least with this system it doesn't appear to be much of anything in our way that could push this out to sea...no high pressure sliding down the OV, PV doesn't look like it's going to screw us over, NAO looks like it will be relaxing a bit, things look better phasing wise as well. Hopefully this is the one.

Yea, I doubt it whiffs....I think the worst case is probably a hugger that ends up relegating e areas to a front end dump.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

Yea, I doubt it whiffs....I think the worst case is probably a hugger that ends up relegating e areas to a front end dump.

Yeah I would say the chances are fairly decent right now that this won't be a whiff...although I guess it can't be totally ruled out at this point. Looks like the baroclinic zone will be somewhat closer to the coast as well than with this system which can't hurt.

Also doesn't really appear to be anything in the way that is going to screw around with the strength of the southern stream s/w.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Wish we could speed up the timing of the X-mas storm so it hit that morning. Any chance that happens?

I could give a rat's *ss if it speeds up or slows down as long as it gives us snow. Seriously, though (actually, that statement is serious), that would be some pretty extreme timing changes I would thing. Maybe not though as we are many days out.

Given the model mahem of the past week, how many grains of salt are we going to be needing as we watch this? At what piont might we feel good? I suppose if we can get some inter/intra model consistency that will take away the sting of the handling of the current system.

16.8/11 up from 15.8.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

I could give a rat's *ss if it speeds up or slows down as long as it gives us snow. Seriously, though (actually, that statement is serious), that would be some pretty extreme timing changes I would thing. Maybe not though as we are many days out.

Given the model mahem of the past week, how many grains of salt are we going to be needing as we watch this? At what piont might we feel good? I suppose if we can get some inter/intra model consistency that will take away the sting of the handling of the current system.

16.8/11 up from 15.8.

It's hard to get too excited yet.but at least it gives us something to track

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