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Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

00z EURO looks like a good hit for inland areas... I like seeing that thing bomb out near L.I.

I know we all have slightly different needs for a big storm, but having the H7 low track over SNE with the dryslot on the EURO going over E.MA usually means a big storm in the interior. Good H7 deformation over eastern NY, VT, and the Berkshires.

Man guidance is all over the place with that one. This is the only model right now showing any sort of hit for the interior so extreme caution should be excercised for anyone NW of the I-90/495 belt... even the DGEX just barely kisses SNE haha.

f168.gif

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SnowMan

SnowMan

Posted
Posted

00z EURO looks like a good hit for inland areas... I like seeing that thing bomb out near L.I.

I know we all have slightly different needs for a big storm, but having the H7 low track over SNE with the dryslot on the EURO going over E.MA usually means a big storm in the interior.

Man guidance is all over the place with that one.

f168.gif

Does that track mean rain for coastal, MA?

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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Does that track mean rain for coastal, MA?

No. Maybe immediate shore-line but H85s and thicknesses look cold enough for a snow bomb... maybe an elevated thin warm layer of pingers for someone near the shore, too.

But this is one run 6 days out... I'm just pumped the EURO is showing a storm before 90 hours out.

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SnowMan

SnowMan

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No. Maybe immediate shore-line but H85s and thicknesses look cold enough for a snow bomb... maybe an elevated thin warm layer of pingers for someone near the shore, too.

But this is one run 6 days out... I'm just pumped the EURO is showing a storm before 90 hours out.

Agreed on getting pumped, but I am cautious of getting overly excited given the situation we just experienced...unsure.gif

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CCPSUSuperstorm2010

CCPSUSuperstorm2010

Posted
Posted

Phasing of the northern and southern pacific jet disturbances with have another major role in determining if the next storm is a whiff or a complete monster. Pattern becomes more amplified through the week as a large H5 vortex sitting off the west coast begins to back WNW into the Gulf of Alaska. This begins to pump up the heights over the Rockies as models are beginning to show the PNA index moving towards neutral or slightly positive. Right now the timing of the phase is real important and as we have seen with the storm now somewhat impacting the Cape and Islands it can be really hard to forecast 2 days in advance let alone 5-6 days in advance. Right now the best approach is to be conservative given the high variability in the potential pattern.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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General comment:

With the operational ECMWF showing a good agreement with the CDC/CPC weakening -NAO idea, keeping this event more progressive and not stalling it increases plausibility. Nonetheless, the gist of the ensemble mean of the GFS and the Euro/GGEM combined with a sharply rising PNA from -2SD to about -.2 are substantial flags for potency running up between 85-70W by 35-50N as a general balanced mass field, stall or not.

That foundemenal aspect lends confidence to an event in that general region, and with less stochastic model solution leading as well given to the 'best fit'. This may explain why the GFS latched on early and has persisted; though as observed there is some additional variance from the 00z/06z, but those are less related to "losing events" and more related to location - which at this time range should be expected within the that general lat/lon range above, so I nod to the idea the model still has it.

The progressive nature of the system limits [most likely] to 6-12" type of scenario, but with a large enough envelopment that the event should earn a low to middle NESDIS rating given a 00z 20th run scenario. That run fits squarely into the teleconnector design and is thus my model of choice.

The best of all Weiner worlds would be if the PNA behaves as the GFS' cluster forecasts, but the NAO proves dismanteled prematurely - then the stall potential emerges.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

General comment:

With the operational ECMWF showing a good agreement with the CDC/CPC weakening -NAO idea, keeping this event more progressive and not stalling it increases plausibility. Nonetheless, the gist of the ensemble mean of the GFS and the Euro/GGEM combined with a sharply rising PNA from -2SD to about -.2 are substantial flags for potency running up between 85-70W by 35-50N as a general balanced mass field, stall or not.

That foundemenal aspect lends confidence to an event in that general region, and with less stochastic model solution leading as well given to the 'best fit'. This may explain why the GFS latched on early and has persisted; though as observed there is some additional variance from the 00z/06z, but those are less related to "losing events" and more related to location - which at this time range should be expected within the that general lat/lon range above, so I nod to the idea the model still has it.

The progressive nature of the system limits [most likely] to 6-12" type of scenario, but with a large enough envelopment that the event should earn a low to middle NESDIS rating given a 00z 20th run scenario. That run fits squarely into the teleconnector design and is thus my model of choice.

The best of all Weiner worlds would be if the PNA behaves as the GFS' cluster forecasts, but the NAO proves dismanteled prematurely - then the stall potential emerges.

I think that would be fine with most folks. However, there seems to be a general attitude on here now about not being pleased unless a storm is a monster HECS KU. I think it was Will and Dendrite that last night remarked that most of the snowfalls in New England are generally in that 4-8" or 6-12" range... at least that's how we get a lot of our seasonal snowfall and folks shouldn't be disappointed with a 6" snowfall.

The number of folks on here that now want a KU or bust is alarming, especially considering how snow-starved some areas are. Hopefully if this storm pans out, people will not be disappointed if it fails to reach double digits.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Storm Mode is the new Radio Show Jinx and as Ginx I know.

I see Ray got sucked in again oh man. Way too early to even think about it but at least there is something to latch onto, take this over torch any day, hope it produces big, need to bump Ryans snowless Dec thread. Then looking at NYE as add on. Lots of talk of the pattern breaking down first wek of Jan, hmm looks colder to me.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

I think that would be fine with most folks. However, there seems to be a general attitude on here now about not being pleased unless a storm is a monster HECS KU. I think it was Will and Dendrite that last night remarked that most of the snowfalls in New England are generally in that 4-8" or 6-12" range... at least that's how we get a lot of our seasonal snowfall and folks shouldn't be disappointed with a 6" snowfall.

The number of folks on here that now want a KU or bust is alarming, especially considering how snow-starved some areas are. Hopefully if this storm pans out, people will not be disappointed if it fails to reach double digits.

At this point I think most would take a high-end mod event, though obviously we are due to have our KU yearnings wed; for that we are due.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Of course it's progressive now that we look to finally have a system affect us......in a year of exotic blocking scenarios, no doubt. :lol:

LOL, well I could see it slowing down. HM made a point and I agree, but I think the next s/w coming into the west, breaks down that ridge and sort of kicks this storm ne. Some of the solutions showed the storm slowing down near the BM so it's possible I guess..just not really modeled right now.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted

LOL.

You can tell what folks here really think of the current "storm" threat situation as the posts are light to moderate, but no hyper-posting as if when the threat is big time ligit, and widespread.

The possible storm is 6 days away...for this juncture the signals are very strong. There's been a lot of posting about this threat...I'm not sure how much more we want.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

The possible storm is 6 days away...for this juncture the signals are very strong. There's been a lot of posting about this threat...I'm not sure how much more we want.

I know what he means, though.....I think folks are a little more reluctant to be posting ballz-to-he-wallz because the HECS-FAIL hangover......probably a good thing.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

The possible storm is 6 days away...for this juncture the signals are very strong. There's been a lot of posting about this threat...I'm not sure how much more we want.

People are also very gun-shy given what just happened. Normally you'd have Kev already locking this up but he seems shaken by the big phail of watching run after run show KU event.

If this threat doesn't pan out, people aren't even going to bother posting here until its within 60 hours, haha.

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OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted

I know what he means, though.....I think folks are a little more reluctant to be posting ballz-to-he-wallz because the HECS-FAIL hangover......probably a good thing.

I'd agree that's a good thing...

The plan for Amy and I is to head to Buffalo on the 23rd and return to Blackstone on the 27th...we'll see how this possible storm affects our plans.

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