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November 2013 pattern and discussion

WxJordan

By WxJordan,
in Southeastern States

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Maybe where you are, but November 2012 was definitely warmer than this November currently is here. Thanksgiving week might just be enough to end the month at the very least slightly below average.

 

 At KATL, Nov. 1-21 2012 and Nov. 1-21 2013 are just about identical with departures of ~-1.5 F vs. normal. Nov. 2013 will almost certainly end up colder due to the upcoming cold expected to be colder than last year's late Nov.

 

Edit: cold projections for the rest of the month bring Nov. 2013 down to close to 3 F below normal vs. Nov. 2012 as a whole at 1.2 below normal.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Oh, yeah, frame 47 is sure to happen :)  Heck I saw a white Xmas once, lol, and that was as near impossible as this is :)  T

 

The clown that makes the clown snow maps is laughing hard right now. It has 1" of S in parts of SW GA lmao. It also has 2-3" near Rome and a major 4-8" storm for E TN for 12/7. May G-d bless the GFS!

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

The GFS post-truncation was just ridiculous.  I've never seen a run like that.  Strong lows everywhere, ridiculous storm tracks, wraparound snows abounding, snow in the Gulf...

 

EDIT: And then the NOGAPS is so suppressed that central NC doesn't even see any precipitation as the storm scoots across the FL peninsula and OTS.  But, yeah, it's the NOGAPS. :)

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

I don't see much chance of sn, ip, or z this week yet, not 'til I see a colder cad, and a lower track..... but now the long range I believe, lol.  Maybe not as depicted...... but something similar in Dec seems rational.  Ya'll are forgetting that  CR reversed the maps, so the short range is the long range, and vise versa.  Way to go, CR!!  T

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NCCatawba

NCCatawba

Posted
Posted

NWS Raleigh

 

While partial thicknesses from both the European model (ecmwf) and the GFS are liquid Tuesday through Wednesday...an earlier onset...given the expected dry air at the surface and the appearance of the profiles on the model soundings...could lend
itself to something briefly mixed especially over the northwest Piedmont. Leaning toward later at least for onset...will have all
rain in the forecast and keep temperatures above freezing Tuesday through Wednesday night...through the latter in deference to the GFS which is now much slower and later with precipitation departure. 

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

NWS Raleigh

 

While partial thicknesses from both the European model (ecmwf) and the GFS are liquid Tuesday through Wednesday...an earlier onset...given the expected dry air at the surface and the appearance of the profiles on the model soundings...could lend

itself to something briefly mixed especially over the northwest Piedmont. Leaning toward later at least for onset...will have all

rain in the forecast and keep temperatures above freezing Tuesday through Wednesday night...through the latter in deference to the GFS which is now much slower and later with precipitation departure.

I could see a lot of people starting out as a brief period of sleet. Definitely not uncommon, even in November.
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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

Love the Euro that would be my yearly average by Thanksgiving lol but realistically speaking its pretty unlikely that said the latest from RAH is a awesome read

 

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
 

-- Changed Discussion --

AS OF 240 AM FRIDAY...

PRE-DOMINATELY RAIN... WITH SOME WET SNOW BEFORE THANKSGIVING
(TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) IN THE TRIAD? IT WOULD
NOT BE UNPRECEDENTED.

FIRST THINGS FIRST... THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE OVER KS/MO AT 1040+ MB
SUNDAY. STRONG CAA AND VERY DRY AIR WILL BRING BRILLIANT SUNSHINE
SUNDAY. HOWEVER... HIGHS OF 35-42 ARE SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES NW TO SE. THESE READINGS WILL BE A GOOD 20-25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH FULL SUN. VERY COLD SUNDAY NIGHT... AND CLEAR.
LOWS 17-22 EXCEPT 22-25 IN THE URBAN CENTERS. MONDAY... INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS AND CONTINUED COLD... BUT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND. HIGHS
40-45.

NOW FOR THE PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE NOT BEEN MANY CASES OF A TRACE TO AN INCH OF
SNOW BEFORE THANKSGIVING IN CENTRAL NC IN THE PAST 50 YEARS... THERE
ESSENTIALLY HAVE BEEN NO MAJOR WINTER STORMS OF RECORD BEFORE
THANKSGIVING... SINCE 1970. CLIMATOLOGY TELLS US THAT IT MAY BE SOME
SNOW BEFORE THANKSGIVING... BUT IT WOULD BE UNPRECEDENTED TO GET A
MAJOR WINTER STORM THIS EARLY.

THAT IS CLIMATOLOGY - NOW FOR THE METEOROLOGY...

A COUPLE OF MAJOR ISSUES TO CONSIDER WITH WINTER WEATHER IN CENTRAL
NC... THE VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY... EXITING AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE
EXITING OF THE ARCTIC HIGH IS CRITICAL. REMEMBER... CENTRAL NC NEEDS
A PARENT ARCTIC HIGH TO BE STRONG ENOUGH (THIS IS)... BUT IN THE
PROPER PLACE TO DELIVER COLD AIR (GREAT LAKES TO PA/NY)... SINCE OUR
HIGH WILL BE MOVING AWAY... OUR COLD AIR SOURCE WILL BE TOO. THIS
STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT EVEN IF THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS EARLY
ENOUGH TUESDAY (AS THERE WILL BE QUITE A LAYER OF VERY DRY COLD AIR
STILL IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NC)... THE AIR MASS WILL BE MODIFYING
RAPIDLY DURING THE MORNING WITH THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE.
THEREFORE... ANY SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY TURN TO RAIN THROUGH THE
MORNING... AND THE SNOW WOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

NEXT... THE STORM ITSELF... WILL THERE BE PHASING OF THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM WITH THE POLAR JET - AND IN TIME TO INDUCE A COASTAL STORM?
ALSO... THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE MID/UPPER LOW ARE STILL IN
QUESTION. THE TRACK MUST BE NEARLY A PERFECT ONE JUST TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST / AND STRONG ENOUGH... TO GENERATE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR
SNOW. WITHOUT A STRONG "CUT OFF LOW" ALOFT AND WITH THE ARCTIC AIR
EXITING... THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS EARLY IN
THE WINTER SEASON. HOWEVER... STILL LOTS OF QUESTIONS STILL TO BE
ANSWERED.

CURRENTLY... THE MODELS FORECAST STORM TRACK AND STRENGTH
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER... MOST MODELS ARE FORECASTING A
COASTAL SURFACE LOW WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WINTRY PRECIP
INLAND IF THE COLD AIR WERE IN PLACE (APPEARS NOT LIKELY AS
MENTIONED ABOVE IN THIS CASE). IN FACT... MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS
OVERWHELM OUR REGION WITH WAA WITH RISING THICKNESSES OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER LOW AND DEPARTURE OF COLD HIGH.

HOW ABOUT NUISANCE SNOW/RAIN AT PRECIP ONSET TUESDAY?? SOME MODELS
DO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 12Z-15Z
TUE. IF THIS OCCURS... THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LINGERING COLD DRY
AIR TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX AT ONSET IN THE TRIAD. YET...
PARTIALS IN THE 1000/850 AND 700/850 LEVELS ARE COLD ENOUGH (1540-
1550 AND 1300-1310)BETWEEN 12Z-15Z TUESDAY.. IF THE PRECIP CAN REACH
THE GROUND IN THE VERY DRY AIR. HOWEVER... THESE PARTIALS RISE
QUICKLY ESPECIALLY IN THE 1000-850 LEVEL DURING THE MORNING... WITH
ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1310+ AND RISING TAKING PRECIP TO ALL
RAIN.THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY IS STILL
QUESTIONABLE AS ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE SOLUTIONS INDICATE SOME
LIGHT QPF BETWEEN 12Z-15Z INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE VERY DRY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S AROUND
12Z... BUT WARMING ALOFT AND THE DIURNAL CYCLE ITSELF SHOULD OFFSET
THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROCESSES... WITH TEMPS RISING ABOVE 32
DURING BETWEEN 13Z-15Z. IF A LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION... THEN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANYTHING OTHER THAN
LIGHT RAIN BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FOR NOW... IT
APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE THAT ARRIVES BETWEEN
12Z-15Z TO WARRANT A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE IN THE
TRIAD... WITH NO ACCUMULATION... QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN DURING MID
TO LATE MORNING.

ELSEWHERE... A CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAIN LIKELY ALL
ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT LEAST SOME IN-SITU DAMMING SHOULD ENSUE
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION AS THE
EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S UNLESS THE RAIN ARRIVES MUCH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS IN
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES SHOULD REMAIN CHILLY AS WELL AND MAY
HOLD AROUND OR NEAR 40 ALL DAY. QPF SHOULD PICK UP TO AROUND 0.25
BETWEEN 18Z/TUE AND 00Z/WED. REMEMBER THAT THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL
WARM... IN THE 50S... BUT COOLING. THEY NEED TO BE 45 OR LOWER TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR ACCU SNOW ESPECIALLY IF IT FALLS DURING THE DAY.

ONE MORE POTENTIAL FOR SOMETHING WINTERY... THE MID/UPPER LOW MAY
STILL TRACK JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST... WITH LOWERING TEMPS ALOFT
IF THAT OCCURS WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO TRACK UP
THE NC AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST. EVEN IF THIS OCCURS... IT APPEARS
THAT ONLY THE PIEDMONT WOULD BE FAVORED FOR A POTENTIAL CHANGE-OVER
BEFORE ENDING. EVEN IF THIS OCCURS... A WET GROUND... UNFAVORABLE
SOIL TEMPS AND DIURNAL CYCLE (DAYTIME WED) WOULD NOT FAVOR
SUBSTANTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNLESS THE MID/UPPER LOW IS STRONGER
THAN MOST MODELS CURRENTLY PROJECT. AGAIN... THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF
THE MID/UPPER LOW WED COMBINED WITH ANY PHASING OF THE SYSTEM WITH
THE POLAR JET HAVE YET TO BE RESOLVED. UNTIL SO... WE WILL CARRY
PREDOMINATE RAIN AS P-TYPE... THROUGHOUT THE EVENT WITH PARTIALS
SAFELY IN THE RAIN CATEGORY.

IF WE TAKE THE AVERAGE OF THE ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS...
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NW AT THE PRECIPITATION
ONSET TUESDAY... BUT WAA SHOULD OVERWHELM THE COLUMN BY 15Z-18Z...
WITH ALL RAIN THEREAFTER. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF MIX OR CHANGE-OVER
WEDNESDAY... (IF) AND A BIG (IF)... THE TRAILING MID/UPPER LOW IS
STRONG AND TAKES THE PERFECT TRACK. TOO MANY IF`S TO INCLUDE MENTION
OF WINTRY CHANGE-OVER FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE PIEDMONT.

OUR FORECAST WILL BE AS FOLLOWS... RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY. SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR BRIEF MIX POSSIBLE IN THE NW PIEDMONT AT ONSET (NO
SNOW ACCUMULATION) HIGHS 36-42. PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. LOWS 34-40. HIGHS 38-50 NW TO SE. MOST IMPORTANTLY... QPF
OF 1+ INCH FOR STORM TOTALS... A GOOD SOAKING IN WHICH IS NEEDED TO
TEMPER THE CURRENT ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... COLDER AND DRIER AGAIN WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. CLEARING. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

-- End Changed Discussion --


 

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Great write-up from RAH last night:

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

AS OF 240 AM FRIDAY...

PRE-DOMINATELY RAIN... WITH SOME WET SNOW BEFORE THANKSGIVING

(TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) IN THE TRIAD? IT WOULD

NOT BE UNPRECEDENTED.

FIRST THINGS FIRST... THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE OVER KS/MO AT 1040+ MB

SUNDAY. STRONG CAA AND VERY DRY AIR WILL BRING BRILLIANT SUNSHINE

SUNDAY. HOWEVER... HIGHS OF 35-42 ARE SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL

THICKNESSES NW TO SE. THESE READINGS WILL BE A GOOD 20-25 DEGREES

BELOW NORMAL WITH FULL SUN. VERY COLD SUNDAY NIGHT... AND CLEAR.

LOWS 17-22 EXCEPT 22-25 IN THE URBAN CENTERS. MONDAY... INCREASING

HIGH CLOUDS AND CONTINUED COLD... BUT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND. HIGHS

40-45.

NOW FOR THE PRECIPITATION EVENT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE NOT BEEN MANY CASES OF A TRACE TO AN INCH OF

SNOW BEFORE THANKSGIVING IN CENTRAL NC IN THE PAST 50 YEARS... THERE

ESSENTIALLY HAVE BEEN NO MAJOR WINTER STORMS OF RECORD BEFORE

THANKSGIVING... SINCE 1970. CLIMATOLOGY TELLS US THAT IT MAY BE SOME

SNOW BEFORE THANKSGIVING... BUT IT WOULD BE UNPRECEDENTED TO GET A

MAJOR WINTER STORM THIS EARLY.

THAT IS CLIMATOLOGY - NOW FOR THE METEOROLOGY...

A COUPLE OF MAJOR ISSUES TO CONSIDER WITH WINTER WEATHER IN CENTRAL

NC... THE VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY INTO

MONDAY... EXITING AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THE

EXITING OF THE ARCTIC HIGH IS CRITICAL. REMEMBER... CENTRAL NC NEEDS

A PARENT ARCTIC HIGH TO BE STRONG ENOUGH (THIS IS)... BUT IN THE

PROPER PLACE TO DELIVER COLD AIR (GREAT LAKES TO PA/NY)... SINCE OUR

HIGH WILL BE MOVING AWAY... OUR COLD AIR SOURCE WILL BE TOO. THIS

STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT EVEN IF THE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS EARLY

ENOUGH TUESDAY (AS THERE WILL BE QUITE A LAYER OF VERY DRY COLD AIR

STILL IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL NC)... THE AIR MASS WILL BE MODIFYING

RAPIDLY DURING THE MORNING WITH THE EXITING HIGH PRESSURE.

THEREFORE... ANY SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY TURN TO RAIN THROUGH THE

MORNING... AND THE SNOW WOULD NOT BE SIGNIFICANT.

NEXT... THE STORM ITSELF... WILL THERE BE PHASING OF THE SOUTHERN

SYSTEM WITH THE POLAR JET - AND IN TIME TO INDUCE A COASTAL STORM?

ALSO... THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE MID/UPPER LOW ARE STILL IN

QUESTION. THE TRACK MUST BE NEARLY A PERFECT ONE JUST TO OUR SOUTH

AND EAST / AND STRONG ENOUGH... TO GENERATE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR

SNOW. WITHOUT A STRONG "CUT OFF LOW" ALOFT AND WITH THE ARCTIC AIR

EXITING... THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS EARLY IN

THE WINTER SEASON. HOWEVER... STILL LOTS OF QUESTIONS STILL TO BE

ANSWERED.

CURRENTLY... THE MODELS FORECAST STORM TRACK AND STRENGTH

ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER... MOST MODELS ARE FORECASTING A

COASTAL SURFACE LOW WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR WINTRY PRECIP

INLAND IF THE COLD AIR WERE IN PLACE (APPEARS NOT LIKELY AS

MENTIONED ABOVE IN THIS CASE). IN FACT... MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS

OVERWHELM OUR REGION WITH WAA WITH RISING THICKNESSES OUT AHEAD OF

THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER LOW AND DEPARTURE OF COLD HIGH.

HOW ABOUT NUISANCE SNOW/RAIN AT PRECIP ONSET TUESDAY?? SOME MODELS

DO BRING SOME LIGHT QPF INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 12Z-15Z

TUE. IF THIS OCCURS... THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LINGERING COLD DRY

AIR TO ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX AT ONSET IN THE TRIAD. YET...

PARTIALS IN THE 1000/850 AND 700/850 LEVELS ARE COLD ENOUGH (1540-

1550 AND 1300-1310)BETWEEN 12Z-15Z TUESDAY.. IF THE PRECIP CAN REACH

THE GROUND IN THE VERY DRY AIR. HOWEVER... THESE PARTIALS RISE

QUICKLY ESPECIALLY IN THE 1000-850 LEVEL DURING THE MORNING... WITH

ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1310+ AND RISING TAKING PRECIP TO ALL

RAIN.THE EARLY ARRIVAL OF THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY IS STILL

QUESTIONABLE AS ABOUT 50 PERCENT OF THE SOLUTIONS INDICATE SOME

LIGHT QPF BETWEEN 12Z-15Z INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. THE AIR MASS

WILL BE VERY DRY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S AROUND

12Z... BUT WARMING ALOFT AND THE DIURNAL CYCLE ITSELF SHOULD OFFSET

THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROCESSES... WITH TEMPS RISING ABOVE 32

DURING BETWEEN 13Z-15Z. IF A LATER ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION... THEN

THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANYTHING OTHER THAN

LIGHT RAIN BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FOR NOW... IT

APPEARS THAT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE THAT ARRIVES BETWEEN

12Z-15Z TO WARRANT A MENTION OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE IN THE

TRIAD... WITH NO ACCUMULATION... QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN DURING MID

TO LATE MORNING.

ELSEWHERE... A CHANCE OF RAIN TUESDAY MORNING WITH RAIN LIKELY ALL

ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AT LEAST SOME IN-SITU DAMMING SHOULD ENSUE

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION AS THE

EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID

TO UPPER 30S UNLESS THE RAIN ARRIVES MUCH LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS IN

THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES SHOULD REMAIN CHILLY AS WELL AND MAY

HOLD AROUND OR NEAR 40 ALL DAY. QPF SHOULD PICK UP TO AROUND 0.25

BETWEEN 18Z/TUE AND 00Z/WED. REMEMBER THAT THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL

WARM... IN THE 50S... BUT COOLING. THEY NEED TO BE 45 OR LOWER TO BE

FAVORABLE FOR ACCU SNOW ESPECIALLY IF IT FALLS DURING THE DAY.

ONE MORE POTENTIAL FOR SOMETHING WINTERY... THE MID/UPPER LOW MAY

STILL TRACK JUST TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST... WITH LOWERING TEMPS ALOFT

IF THAT OCCURS WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO TRACK UP

THE NC AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST. EVEN IF THIS OCCURS... IT APPEARS

THAT ONLY THE PIEDMONT WOULD BE FAVORED FOR A POTENTIAL CHANGE-OVER

BEFORE ENDING. EVEN IF THIS OCCURS... A WET GROUND... UNFAVORABLE

SOIL TEMPS AND DIURNAL CYCLE (DAYTIME WED) WOULD NOT FAVOR

SUBSTANTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNLESS THE MID/UPPER LOW IS STRONGER

THAN MOST MODELS CURRENTLY PROJECT. AGAIN... THE TRACK/STRENGTH OF

THE MID/UPPER LOW WED COMBINED WITH ANY PHASING OF THE SYSTEM WITH

THE POLAR JET HAVE YET TO BE RESOLVED. UNTIL SO... WE WILL CARRY

PREDOMINATE RAIN AS P-TYPE... THROUGHOUT THE EVENT WITH PARTIALS

SAFELY IN THE RAIN CATEGORY.

IF WE TAKE THE AVERAGE OF THE ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS...

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE NW AT THE PRECIPITATION

ONSET TUESDAY... BUT WAA SHOULD OVERWHELM THE COLUMN BY 15Z-18Z...

WITH ALL RAIN THEREAFTER. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF MIX OR CHANGE-OVER

WEDNESDAY... (IF) AND A BIG (IF)... THE TRAILING MID/UPPER LOW IS

STRONG AND TAKES THE PERFECT TRACK. TOO MANY IF`S TO INCLUDE MENTION

OF WINTRY CHANGE-OVER FOR WEDNESDAY IN THE PIEDMONT.

OUR FORECAST WILL BE AS FOLLOWS... RAIN DEVELOPING TUESDAY. SOME

LIGHT SNOW OR BRIEF MIX POSSIBLE IN THE NW PIEDMONT AT ONSET (NO

SNOW ACCUMULATION) HIGHS 36-42. PERIODS OF RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND

WEDNESDAY. LOWS 34-40. HIGHS 38-50 NW TO SE. MOST IMPORTANTLY... QPF

OF 1+ INCH FOR STORM TOTALS... A GOOD SOAKING IN WHICH IS NEEDED TO

TEMPER THE CURRENT ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY... COLDER AND DRIER AGAIN WITH

ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR. CLEARING. LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted

Is it just me or are snow shadows becoming more frequent in the foothills?

 

Hence the words beneath my avatar.  The snow shadows did seem to happen frequently the last two winters.  And the earlier event this year behaved similarly with Charlotte and points SE seeing snow, but not Hickory.  Whenever precipitation comes from the NW, the shadow is almost guaranteed.  If it comes from the SW, we have a much better chance.

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nchighcountrywx

nchighcountrywx

Posted
Posted

Thanksgiving Forecast Discussion from Raysweather for the NC NW High Country

 

xs5dybq.png

 

We have two "Big Deals" to cover in the forecast today: 1) the coldest air of the season arriving this weekend and 2) a low tracking across the Southeast and up the East Coast next week threatening pre-Thanksgiving travel. 

A front is approaching from the west today and will pass through the Appalachians later tonight. Temperatures today are milder. We'll have plenty of mild/dry hours between early AM fog lifting and light rain or drizzle developing later this afternoon. Light rain and drizzle continues tonight. 

Big Deal #1... The frontal passage is a few hours faster than we thought yesterday. So, virtually all the rain will be to our east Saturday; however, we do have to leave the door open for early light rain or drizzle Saturday morning and flurries later Saturday into Saturday night. Colder air begins its siege Saturday afternoon and takes full control Saturday night. Sunday promises to be the coldest day of the season to date with clear skies. 

Big Deal #2... An upper-level low in Southern California today moves east and spawns surface low pressure in the western Gulf Monday. With the super-cold air laid down this weekend in front of this system, the stakes are raised for some icing at the onset of precipitation. While the bulk of this even will be rain (Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday morning), a wintry mix is possible late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Then precipitation may end as snow or snow showers Wednesday. Keep an eye on these important travel days as we bet closer in time. As an aside, we really need the precipitation after several months of abnormally dry weather. 

All the precipitation will be to our northeast by Thanksgiving Day... clearing and very cold. The only warm spots will be around turkeys in deep fryers.

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