FLweather Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 18z coming in much further south and more positively tilted. Snow breaking out in central TN (Nashville area) at hr 129. EDIT: The northern foothills and extreme northwestern Piedmont in NC (as well as SW VA) look like almost all snow this run. Are you looking at precip type maps? Cause I dont see that.... 0 degree isotherm is north of KY,WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 one surface low instead of two. as grit mentions.no.stream interaction. nothing.lime the euro.ukie. or the.12z gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Are you looking at precip type maps? Yeah, on Tropical Tidbits. I am not sure how accurate they typically are, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Looks like an elevation dependent snow for NC mountains. Helluva good 500mb low track, just don't have enough cold anchored in for most. Hard to ask for much more out of your southern stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 According to Tropical Tidbits' precip-type maps, almost everyone in NC gets a period of snow as the LP pulls out eastward OTS and the cold rushes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Looks like an elevation dependent snow for NC mountains. Helluva good 500mb low track, just don't have enough cold anchored in for most. Hard to ask for much more out of your southern stream I don't see how it can get any better, unless it slows to a crawl. Clown maps I have show a 2-4" strip of snow through NC right down I-40 and the NC MTN have 6-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 on my wxbell maps at 156 the low is really wrapping up off charleston and the nc mtns and upper centeral nc are seeing snow/mix EDIT: and wow, perfect low track and the cold air rushed in as it slides off the coast giving pretty much all of nc and upper sc snow thanksgiving day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Looks like an elevation dependent snow for NC mountains. Helluva good 500mb low track, just don't have enough cold anchored in for most. Hard to ask for much more out of your southern streamits just too bad its late November instead of late December. the track is perfect for western nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 snow maps give almost all of nc snow accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCCatawba Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 This is going to be tough to swallow. Perfect track modeled 7 days out. Wish this was shown on Tuesday instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 its just too bad its late November instead of late December. the track is perfect for western nc. Yeah it's exciting to think what we can have if we can keep an active STJ happening along with these bouts of arctic attack through the winter. +AO/NAO or not I'd really like our chances. With that said, we probably lose the STJ by the second week in Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VanillaDream Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Looks like we are shaping up for a fun winter IMO...just based off of whats been seen thus far. Of course, things could change in an instant! Sure is nice to have some things to track before turkey day though! Either way, looking cold next week as we give thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 its just too bad its late November instead of late December. the track is perfect for western nc.It really doesn't matter what time of the year it is. If the setup allows it to snow then it will. As soon as we get into December, someone is going to say, "too bad it's December instead of January/February".Snow/Sleet/Freezing rain is rare for Texas and some places are about to see a 3-5 day snow/sleet/freezing rain event. It's warmer in Abilene Texas now then here. 78 there 73 here. By later tonight they will have freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 It really doesn't matter what time of the year it is. If the setup allows it to snow then it will. As soon as we get into December, someone is going to say, "too bad it's December instead of January/February". Snow/Sleet/Freezing rain is rare for Texas and some places are about to see a 3-5 day snow/sleet/freezing rain event. It's warmer in Abilene Texas now then here. 78 there 73 here. By later tonight they will have freezing rain. lol ok its.called climo, there is a reason I average more snow in December than November. ther is also a reason I average more snow in November than July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Carl Parker , just said they are going with the euro! And the event for N TX is looking like a significant event for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Guys, looking at KCLT in Bufkit is ominous... .. ZR.... prologned period. over half an inch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 lol ok its.called climo, there is a reason I average more snow in December than November. ther is also a reason I average more snow in November than July.Lol climo? I guess it's normal to see 3-5 day snow/freezing rain/sleet events in Texas in November. Wintry precipitation is just as rare in Dallas as in NC. I guess climo isn't going to allow wintry precipitation there even though the models are trending colder for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 How reliable is the 12z hi res EURO? I see 1-3" north-west Piedmont, 3-4" foothills, and 5" in the mountains. from what you just showed I'd say NOT RELIABLE at all.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Guys, looking at KCLT in Bufkit is ominous... .. ZR.... prologned period. over half an inch.. Not seeing any way the 18z GFS is freezing rain...it's Miller A sfc coastal low with 500mb vort max tracking to our south...rain or snow all the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 from what you just showed I'd say NOT RELIABLE at all.... Man I hope you eat those words come turkey day Frosty! Lol. ZR would not be good. Give me snow or no! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Guys, looking at KCLT in Bufkit is ominous... .. ZR.... prologned period. over half an inch.. Thickness plots support ZR with a trace IP along 77 north of CLT, hard to get snow with 850-700mb thickness north of 1560m, lower levels on the other hand are cold enough for it to freeze, ether just before or when it hits the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I just checked the Euro monthly run that came out today (apparently it's released sooner than I realized). Starts off with cold shots coming in one after another, not staying long, but they are frequent. By about Dec 11 it turns mild and stays that way. This seems to go along with Don Sutherland's current line of thinking. Edit: Moisture wise, looks like a pretty juicy system around the 6th followed by another one around the 8th or 9th, then dry until the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Not seeing any way the 18z GFS is freezing rain...it's Miller A sfc coastal low with 500mb vort max tracking to our south...rain or snow all the way Maybe IP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Lol climo? I guess it's normal to see 3-5 day snow/freezing rain/sleet events in Texas in November. Wintry precipitation is just as rare in Dallas as in NC. I guess climo isn't going to allow wintry precipitation there even though the models are trending colder for that area."wintry precipitation" is not rare here in the nc mtns where I live. we have ski slopes here. this.is not waycross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Maybe IP? Grit is right.... not seeing freezing rain with this one. Freezing rain comes from Miller B's not Miller A's. It will be either rain or snow. Soundings look suspect. I can't see 925's colder than 850's in that pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Man I hope you eat those words come turkey day Frosty! Lol. ZR would not be good. Give me snow or no! Me too! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Grit is right.... not seeing freezing rain with this one. Freezing rain comes from Miller B's not Miller A's. It will be either rain or snow. Soundings look suspect. I can't see 925's colder than 850's in that pattern. Just passing along info from bufkit etc. Not experienced enough with the dynamics and all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Not seeing any way the 18z GFS is freezing rain...it's Miller A sfc coastal low with 500mb vort max tracking to our south...rain or snow all the wayI agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 "wintry precipitation" is not rare here in the nc mtns where I live. we have ski slopes here. this.is not waycross. that is so true, and many people seem to forget that. the microclimates around NC, NE GA and SC are amazing, and if i am not mistaken some areas in western nc get a boatload more snow than many places in the mid atlantic (like 40" or more almost twice some MA places). sugar, beech, etc. get a lot more than that even. we are about a week or so away from dec, and early dec 05 was one of the nastiest (well i thought it was pretty awesome lol) ice storm around here in ages (and almost none since then). so far this pattern, were it to maintain itself and/or repeat, could bring us some interesting weather finally. we have had a couple of bust years and i need a winter storm fix haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Lol climo? I guess it's normal to see 3-5 day snow/freezing rain/sleet events in Texas in November. Wintry precipitation is just as rare in Dallas as in NC. I guess climo isn't going to allow wintry precipitation there even though the models are trending colder for that area.. Did you mean Dallas, NC?? That's about equivalent to Waycross !! Storms that blow up off of NC or SC coast don't get it done in my neck of the woods! Moisture never makes it back this far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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