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CT Rain

Second Half of October Wx Discussion?

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Congrats--first of the season?

 

I have yet to have one, figure I'll just go right to freeze later this week.

 

37.1/33

 

I don't think I've had one either. This was at work.

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More than perhaps if you get rain. I'm not sold on it even here though. Euro is rather dry.

Yup.  Flow looks rather progressive so I would not rule that out either.

Frost in the burbs this morning too. Noticed it here in Andover.

Widespread around my area.  Got another freeze too.

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Looking back from a week ago, the GEFS definitely did a better job with this cold shot. They had the low north of the Canadian maritimes rather well and the euro ensembles barely had a low. This helped drive the cold SE.

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Congrats--first of the season?

 

I have yet to have one, figure I'll just go right to freeze later this week.

 

37.1/33

 

I had my first freeze of the year with a low of 32°.  I've had patchy frost a few times going back to mid-September.  This is pretty late for me - my running average is 10/3 and today was only 5 days from my latest of 10/26 in 2007.

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No frost at my house in Pepperell.  Down to 35 F at some point this morning.  I just hope the cold can build in a bit better for the costal....

 

In other news, the NAM is on board now.  Can't really say if that means anything at this point...namUS_sfc_prec_060.gif

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No frost at my house in Pepperell.  Down to 35 F at some point this morning.  I just hope the cold can build in a bit better for the costal....

 

In other news, the NAM is on board now.  Can't really say if that means anything at this point...namUS_sfc_prec_060.gif

 

It pretty much means nothing having the NAM on board. I'm still not really on board for now other than a graze perhaps.  It could be a bit more rain in far SE MA and the Cape as a deformation band forms.

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Gotta love the preseason with the first NAM hallucinations beyond 48hr.

 

:lol: Hard frost here this am, 30F for a low at 5:33 am

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12z nam looking a little better maybe flakes for some.. 

 

 

Pretty torched in the low levels, but it does cool at the end...maybe the hills end as some snow on the NAM.

 

I don't really believe the model though at this point. Its more amplified than most guidance...and the fast compressed flow leads me to think the SE solutions are more correct.

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at that time of year where your 850s aren't overly representative unless the atmosphere is really cold/dry to start or it is truly ripping heavy precip. still have couple / few thousand feet of mild air.

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at that time of year where your 850s aren't overly representative unless the atmosphere is really cold/dry to start or it is truly ripping heavy precip. still have couple / few thousand feet of mild air.

 

Yeah you can see that on the soundings. If it were ripping you could probably wetbulb to 34 or something. Maybe even cooler in the hills. I think there should be a decent def band on the NW side of this, but it might be too progressive and too far east to mean anything.

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at that time of year where your 850s aren't overly representative unless the atmosphere is really cold/dry to start or it is truly ripping heavy precip. still have couple / few thousand feet of mild air.

Similiar to spring snows; I have seen it raining lower elevations of town, but you go to 700-900ft and it changes to snow. Stafford/Union/Woodstock hills near me might see some flakes, that's it

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But once this wave train goes by, we may relax. That's a pretty +AO progged so we need to watch what happens by the Aleutians and AK. So far, heights do not lower that much, but if they do...not good. IMHO I think we'll see the Pacific jet increase again as storms plow into the NW. This may lead to some interesting swings in temps if this happens because Canada should be relatively chilly.

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But once this wave train goes by, we may relax. That's a pretty +AO progged so we need to watch what happens by the Aleutians and AK. So far, heights do not lower that much, but if they do...not good. IMHO I think we'll see the Pacific jet increase again as storms plow into the NW. This may lead to some interesting swings in temps if this happens because Canada should be relatively chilly.

 

 

Pretty impressive up int he stratosphere...we'll hope that it breaks up some for November.

 

 

ecmwf10f240.gif

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If this was happening about 2-4 weeks from now, it'd be cause for major concern. The hope is it's not a long duration +AO.

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I noticed the CFS and even the weeklies have a monster +NAO, but sag the vortex really far south to the point where it cools us off. You are playing with fire when you do that near our latitude, but it was an interesting prog.

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But once this wave train goes by, we may relax. That's a pretty +AO progged so we need to watch what happens by the Aleutians and AK. So far, heights do not lower that much, but if they do...not good. IMHO I think we'll see the Pacific jet increase again as storms plow into the NW. This may lead to some interesting swings in temps if this happens because Canada should be relatively chilly.

Yeah I am thinking a relaxation in early November too...how much though is the issue. The main thing here for me is how warm might it get and if it would negate any snowmaking chances prior...not a fan of wasting money making snow in late October to watch it rot away for the first 10 days of November. This time of year is always stressful for those types of decisions/reasons.

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at that time of year where your 850s aren't overly representative unless the atmosphere is really cold/dry to start or it is truly ripping heavy precip. still have couple / few thousand feet of mild air.

Yeah -3C at 850 and raining by 2,500ft elevation.

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