Second Half of October Wx Discussion?

[weathafella]

As OK powdah just said in general discussion recurving typhoon #2 may unleash arctic air end of month.

Ice on Charles for turkey day ...lalala lock it (jk)

I do remember skim ice on the Charles the day after Thanksgiving one year....early 2000s...

A cold thanksgiving particularly a snowy one presages many a great winter. It's less of a long shot this year when thanksgiving is the latest it possibly could be.

[dryslot]

Upslope spots definitely look favorable for snow behind the system regardless. The system itself though won't produce much snow anywhere though if it ends up as a weaker anafrontal wave.

 

Yeah, I don't expect much more then a cold rain with maybe some mangled flakes mixed in right now unless the models are underplaying the air mass or this system trends stronger, GFS got it to 984mb but the Euro is pretty weak, LES machine looks to get going to not that it has much effect here

[dryslot]

Looks like 12Z GFS continues the theme from 06z albeit weaker

[N. OF PIKE]

Looks like 12Z GFS continues the theme from 06z

Strength

[It's Always Sunny]

Looks like 12Z GFS continues the theme from 06z albeit weaker

12Z is faster with it and has 540 further west. Time will tell this is still 5 days out.

[dryslot]

Strength

 

996mb

[N. OF PIKE]

Looks like 12Z GFS continues the theme from 06z albeit weaker

Then what was the theme, we need this robust or its crap, but ya we got time

[dryslot]

Then what was the theme, we need this robust or its crap, but ya we got time

 

Showing the coastal but 12z is weaker then 06 z by 4mb, We need a stronger system, It gets going to late this run

[nzucker]

Showing the coastal but 12z is weaker then 06 z by 4mb, We need a stronger system, It gets going to late this run

It doesn't fully phase in the northern stream so you have a low to your north advecting in milder air....not a pretty situation for a late October snowfall. You need that to consolidate into a stronger coastal.

[dryslot]

It doesn't fully phase in the northern stream so you have a low to your north advecting in milder air....not a pretty situation for a late October snowfall. You need that to consolidate into a stronger coastal.

 

Yes, Need to get the secondary cranking to draw down the colder air into the system, More like what the 12z ukie had yesterday

[N. OF PIKE]

It doesn't fully phase in the northern stream so you have a low to your north advecting in milder air....not a pretty situation for a late October snowfall. You need that to consolidate into a stronger coastal.

To hell w the gfs anyway, waiting for the king lol

Too bad we couldnt get a tropical connection into some deep cold around for a hallloweenie storm bomb

[powderfreak]

Then what was the theme, we need this robust or its crap, but ya we got time

 

Maybe I'll get a glimpse of white tomorrow morning up on the mountain if the clouds clear... I still think Mansfield waits till later this week to whiten.

 

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 358 AM EDT SATURDAY...CONTINUING FORECAST TREND OF

SHIFTING PRECIP THRU AREA OVERNGT AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO SC

QUEBEC. TOWARDS 12Z SUNDAY LOOKING FOR BULK OF PRECIP TO CLR CWA

W/ SCT -RW FROM WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND SYSTEM. WESTERLY FLOW

BEHIND THIS WILL ALSO BRING SOME LK ONTARIO -RW PLUME FOR A FEW

HRS ENHANCING REMAINING -RW IN DACKS. COLDER SFC AIR WRAPPING THIS

LOW WILL BE ENOUGH AT 2000FT AND HIGHER TO ALLOW FOR -SW TO MIX IN

BFR ENDING. HIR ELEV WILL SEE LIGHT COATING. OVERALL HIGHS FOR

TODAY WILL CONTINUE ABV NORMAL BY SEVERAL DEGREES AS WAA ON SSW

FLOW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW WARM UP.

 

Tonight: Rain showers likely before 5am, then rain likely, possibly mixed with snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 36. Windy, with a south wind 26 to 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

 

Sunday: A chance of rain and snow showers, mainly between 9am and 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 37. Windy, with a west wind 28 to 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

[dryslot]

To hell w the gfs anyway, waiting for the king lol

Too bad we couldnt get a tropical connection into some deep cold around for a hallloweenie storm bomb

 

Models starting to hit that time period hard with a strong system, But this far out it could be up the coast or cut thru Western NY

[LaxSki]

Sounds interesting for the Southern Greens. Looking to get an earlier Start to the Ski Season then in the past few years. 2002-2003 was wall to wall with deep snow at X-Mas

[dryslot]

Ski areas at any rate with the colder air mass in place, And the upslope snows, Should be able to run the guns nonstop for the most part

[moneypitmike]

It doesn't fully phase in the northern stream so you have a low to your north advecting in milder air....not a pretty situation for a late October snowfall. You need that to consolidate into a stronger coastal.

 

Socks subbing for Scooter with the caution flags flying.  So much can go wrong with systems 5 days out in January.  Move it to October and well........don't get your hopes up

[It's Always Sunny]

It doesn't fully phase in the northern stream so you have a low to your north advecting in milder air....not a pretty situation for a late October snowfall. You need that to consolidate into a stronger coastal.

Not sure what you mean by advecting in milder air, unless you mean mild air being advected in from the SW in front of the low but that's how frontal systems work. I get what you're saying about the phasing though. Regardless, many shouldn't get their hopes up this far out.

[dryslot]

Not sure what you mean by advecting in milder air, unless you mean mild air being advected in from the SW in front of the low but that's how frontal systems work. I get what you're saying about the phasing though. Regardless, many shouldn't get their hopes up this far out.

 

Pretty tough to get gung ho about a system in Oct, Its nice to see but a lot of things need to fall into place for snow this early, Heck, Even in Dec-Jan you can have issues.

[N. OF PIKE]

Not sure what you mean by advecting in milder air, unless you mean mild air being advected in from the SW in front of the low but that's how frontal systems work. I get what you're saying about the phasing though. Regardless, many shouldn't get their hopes up this far out.

We are currently between the praying and hoping stages (for snow)

[powderfreak]

Ski areas at any rate with the colder air mass in place, And the upslope snows, Should be able to run the guns nonstop for the most part

 

Yeah there should be a good 48 hour period of snowmaking, or at least several nights in a row.  I'm still skeptical of how cold it gets below summit level for snowmaking (ie. for the most part you need 28F or lower) for a prolonged period of time (I could see like 2,000ft sitting in the low/mid 30s)... but at least the upper mountain should be able to run pretty steadily for a period there late next week into the weekend.

[dryslot]

Yeah there should be a good 48 hour period of snowmaking, or at least several nights in a row.  I'm still skeptical of how cold it gets below summit level for snowmaking (ie. for the most part you need 28F or lower) for a prolonged period of time (I could see like 2,000ft sitting in the low/mid 30s)... but at least the upper mountain should be able to run pretty steadily for a period there late next week into the weekend.

 

Should be able to stack it up at the summit and just below it.........lol

[N. OF PIKE]

Should be able to stack it up at the summit and just below it.........lol

I think you will be making snow lower than 3k

[powderfreak]

Should be able to stack it up at the summit and just below it.........lol

 

lol... yeah one of those situations where you can bury a select portion of the mountain and yet not do anything below that level.  If we start tickling -10C H85s though, then its probably game on top to bottom. 

[dryslot]

I think you will be making snow lower than 3k

 

I'm quite sure, The question that has to be answer is how low

[powderfreak]

I think you will be making snow lower than 3k

 

Yeah, I've got 2,500ft+ right now but it'll depend on what the nights do.  A lot of time there's that mid-elevation warm layer at night in the vicinity of the base area and just above that stops snowmaking this time of year... ie. 25F summit, 35F base (1500ft), 28F village (800ft).  What'll happen is the wind will stay up and lead to dry adiabatic lapes rates from base to summit, then the inversion sits around 1,000-1,200ft and below that it gets quite cold in town.  Just watch, I bet we'll have a few days with that type of spread overnight with the warmest layer being like 1,200-2,200ft.

[dryslot]

lol... yeah one of those situations where you can bury a select portion of the mountain and yet not do anything below that level.  If we start tickling -10C H85s though, then its probably game on top to bottom. 

 

Not out of the realm of possibility once our system moves by next week on the backside

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Yeah there should be a good 48 hour period of snowmaking, or at least several nights in a row.  I'm still skeptical of how cold it gets below summit level for snowmaking (ie. for the most part you need 28F or lower) for a prolonged period of time (I could see like 2,000ft sitting in the low/mid 30s)... but at least the upper mountain should be able to run pretty steadily for a period there late next week into the weekend.

 

I'm always cautious wrt the cold shots underperforming.  The past few winters seem to feature the models overdoing the medium/long range cold only to watch modeled forecasts moderate once inside 3 days.

[moneypitmike]

I'm always cautious wrt the cold shots underperforming.  The past few winters seem to feature the models overdoing the medium/long range cold only to watch modeled forecasts moderate once inside 3 days.

 

I agree, but I also have a theory on this. 

 

I think the run of the mill ones--blast (or stretch) of BN--are not truly notable, but play out as anticipated.  The real significant blasts do tend to get muted as extremes by definition tend not to happen.  That's a saw that cuts both ways in that summer torches frequently fail to hit expectations.  (They seem to perhaps because so many of us  clamor for winter and shun the heat).  My two cents.

 

60.1/43

[Typhoon Tip]

Whether it snows are not ... we got us a real nice definite transition season this time.  Not a lot of signs for protracted warmth that hold leaves on the trees through Halloween and puts November and December into a low confidence mode.   

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1159 AM EDT SAT OCT 19 2013

VALID 12Z TUE OCT 22 2013 - 12Z SAT OCT 26 2013

...OVERVIEW AND PREFERENCES...

AN AMPLIFIED HEIGHT PATTERN WITH HIGH HEIGHTS OVER THE WEST AND
LOW HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST WILL DOMINATE THE MEDIUM RANGE
ALTHOUGH IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AN UPPER CUTOFF OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL MOVE EASTWARD
AND MAY PUSH ACROSS THE WEST COAST ALSO TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
OVERNIGHT ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE OPERATIONAL RUNS IN TERMS OF
SHORTWAVE DETAILS. FOR NOW...THE 06Z GFS TRENDED TOWARD THE 00Z
ECMWF AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE 00Z UKMET IN DEVELOPING A DIVING
SHORT WAVE INTO AT LEAST A MODEST WESTERN ATLANTIC CYCLONE
ALTHOUGH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW LITTLE SUPPORT FOR SUCH A
DEVELOPMENT ON DAYS 4 AND 5. LOOKING AT A SCATTER PLOT OF
ENSEMBLE CYCLONE LOCATIONS DOES SHOW SOME MODEST SUPPORT FOR SUCH
A DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITIES FOR THIS SOLUTION
REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE EVEN THOUGH THE MANUAL GRAPHICS SHOW A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE OFF NEW ENGLAND ON DAY 5. THE 12Z RUNS
COULD GO EITHER WAY AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS
SYSTEM FARTHER EAST AND PERHAPS WEAKER. THIS DISCUSSION IS
RELEASED BEFORE MOST NEW 12Z GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE. DID HAVE A
CHANCE TO GLANCE AT THE 12Z GFS THROUGH DAY 4 AND IT IS FASTER AND
NOT QUITE AS DEEP AS THE 06Z RUN. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS IT WOULD
GENERATE A WEAKER CYCLONE.

ACROSS THE PACIFIC...A CUTOFF LOW BETWEEN HAWAII AND ALASKA HAS
SUPPORT TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE IN THE NW AND MAY PUSH INTO
CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS AND EVEN THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS ESPECIALLY BY DAY 5. WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS
CLOSER TO ITS MEAN...THE RECENT 06Z GFS IS EVEN SLOWER THAN ITS
ENSEMBLE MEAN...ALTHOUGH THE DIFFERENCES ARE LARGER.

LATE IN THE FORECAST...UNRESOLVED SHORTWAVE DETAILS WITHIN THE
MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN
PLAINS RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BY DAY 7. WHILE
LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS SHOW LOW PRESSURE/COLD
FRONT DRIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...THE ECMWF HAS NO
SUCH SOLUTION. A MODEST COLD FRONT IS DEPICTED AS A COMPROMISE
SOLUTION SINCE IT HAS SOME SLIGHT SUPPORT FROM CYCLONE SCATTER
PLOTS.

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

IN THE EAST... THE BROAD AND RELATIVELY DEEP TROUGH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST AND
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE POLAR FRONT LIKELY CLEARING MOST IF
NOT ALL OF FLORIDA. DETAILS FOR THE NORTHEAST AND ESPECIALLY
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ARE STILL FUZZY WITH THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL RAIN AND SOME INLAND
SNOW...BUT RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE. NEAR THE LAKES... -6C TO
-9C AIR AT 850MB ATOP LAKE TEMPS OF 9-18C SPELLS AT LEAST A MODEST
LAKE PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY... AND SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE
LAKES FOR THE FIRST POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OF THE SEASON. IN
THE WEST... APPROACHING UPPER LOW SHOULD SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST FROM SAN FRANCISCO NORTHWARD
WITH MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE... DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH AND PATH OF THE UPPER LOW.

KOCIN

[moneypitmike]

Whether it snows are not ... we got us a real nice definite transition season this time.  Not a lot of signs for protracted warmth that hold leaves on the trees through Halloween and puts November and December into a low confidence mode.   

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

1159 AM EDT SAT OCT 19 2013

VALID 12Z TUE OCT 22 2013 - 12Z SAT OCT 26 2013

 

...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

IN THE EAST... THE BROAD AND RELATIVELY DEEP TROUGH SHOULD KEEP

TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST AND

THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE POLAR FRONT LIKELY CLEARING MOST IF

NOT ALL OF FLORIDA. DETAILS FOR THE NORTHEAST AND ESPECIALLY

EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ARE STILL FUZZY WITH THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF

INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL RAIN AND SOME INLAND

SNOW...BUT RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE. NEAR THE LAKES... -6C TO

-9C AIR AT 850MB ATOP LAKE TEMPS OF 9-18C SPELLS AT LEAST A MODEST

LAKE PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY... AND SOME

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE

LAKES FOR THE FIRST POSSIBLE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OF THE SEASON. IN

 

KOCIN

 

Congrats Calais.