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Second Half of October Wx Discussion?


CT Rain

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Euro ensembles are a pretty boring pattern for early November...they do keep the cold pretty close by. It looks around average for us, but there's some good spread in the long range.

Not often the flow is flat near AK so I figured there is some good spread too. I guess it's

Not a bad thing to have Canada cold.

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Of a major storm, i would say certainly yes.

I said major, so that sure there could be weak little impulses

I'll take the answer in this particular instance as no

You can have a record breaking storm in 10 days even if the models don't show anything, extremely small changes in the short term forecast can have major implications if extrapolated 10 days. A guy sneezing out of a biplane today in Alaska can change your accuweather 45 day forecast from sunny to snowy :)
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There may be a couple of cutters in early Nov.

lol great.

I may take over for MPM but I'm a little concerned with the dry pattern we've had the last few weeks. Since our snowfall correlates to precip more than temps up north, I always get antsy for some moisture to start showing up. Even if it's rain, I'd take some storms or cutter just to get some moisture around.

Any of the long range mets see signs of a wetter pattern developing or more active? Like southern stream moisture on the rise?

:weenie:

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There may be a couple of cutters in early Nov.

 

 

Euro actually had one at day 10...though it was pretty far west. Way too early to tell if we don't get a major system passing through the lakes or if its just weak waves. The ensemble mean actually has troughing decently east...but the flow still looks fast.

 

I'll say that the pattern does look pretty boring overall since the cold retreats north and any systems would likely have limited potential for frozen precip...but I guess thats not to be unexpected this time of the year.

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Euro actually had one at day 10...though it was pretty far west. Way too early to tell if we don't get a major system passing through the lakes or if its just weak waves. The ensemble mean actually has troughing decently east...but the flow still looks fast.

 

I'll say that the pattern does look pretty boring overall since the cold retreats north and any systems would likely have limited potential for frozen precip...but I guess thats not to be unexpected this time of the year.

 

Yeah it stinks for the next 10 days or so....but perhaps gets a little more active beyond.

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Well if more of a gradient pattern develops then yes, the pattern will get more active and I think it will. October 2005 had record rains and ask everyone up north how that winter was.

Very true...though at least that month had ridiculous mountain snows. I skied the woods on a three foot base that month, lol, and Killington had like 60 trails open on natural snow.

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