Derecho! Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 There's also a permanent upwelling area with low TCHP just N of the Yucatan which hurts a bit right now-doesn't extend that far north, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 The 6Z GFS, which ends up hitting Apalachicola Sunday afternoon with its strongest run yet on the low resolution (1001 mb), gets it to as far west as ~90W (when it is near 24.5 N) as of 2 AM ED tonight. So, that will be an interesting benchmark to follow. Then it turns nearly due north and slows down on Friday. It doesn't have it strengthening again to any strong extent until Saurday/Sunday, when it starts moving NNE and then NE. I'm guessing that's because the NNE/NE movement would be more aligned with the upper flow then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 I love TWC's overlapping pressure gradient map of the GFS and Euro. Wish I had something like that I could use regularly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Thanks! Looks like the models are initialized off the GFS and GEFS grids so its not too surprising to see the intensity guidance so bullish. Yeah I have no idea how well they perform. Just another set of guidance I suppose, but we'll see how they do with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Sure - http://cup.aos.wisc.edu/will/HFIP/atl.html The PSU WRF EnKF ensemble is also worth a look: http://hfip.psu.edu/realtime/AL2013/forecast_track.html Thanks for posting this... do you have a link to the original page that you obtained these from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Did anyone notice on the 5 day Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities there is a tongue of possible development going up the coast? That is not possible development, that is the resultant inflow into whatever is left of Karen as she treks along the spine of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 That is not possible development, that is the resultant inflow into whatever is left of Karen as she treks along the spine of the Apps.It actually represents the Bayesian probability of the track forecasted by NHC resulting in a TC that exits the Southeast coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 I like that APSU track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 There's also a permanent upwelling area with low TCHP just N of the Yucatan which hurts a bit right now-doesn't extend that far north, though. However, there is a very cold eddy that is currently over the C GoM that Karen will be traversing over the next few days. SSTs are in the 28-30C range, the OHC is anomalously low in that same region (lower than the region Ingrid traversed a few weeks ago). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Sure - http://cup.aos.wisc.edu/will/HFIP/atl.html The PSU WRF EnKF ensemble is also worth a look: http://hfip.psu.edu/realtime/AL2013/forecast_track.html The PSU near real-time system has been run for the past several years and has a pretty good track record. I haven't monitored the UW-NMS based system for hurricanes, but I know the folks working on it and I'm quite familiar with the model (having gone to school there many years ago), I'll see if I can bug some people for some stats since I have lots of free time right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 12z gfs much further west, approaching the eastern tip of la moving nne, 990mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Looks like the GFS is coming a good deal west this run through hr 51, landfall in SE LA. Edit: Late jog east still taking it into the FL panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 It looked like it was going to hit SE LA but the center doesn't make landfall until hr 72-75 and that's in the FL PH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 it brushes se la and turn ne and travels just offshore where it strengthens a good bit until landfall on the panhandle at 983mb 81kt winds at 900mb! EDIT: and at 84hr the center is over sw georgia and winds are still 60kt at 900mb over se georgia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Last recon fix appears to be due west of the previous fix. Not necessarily a good sign if you are thinking short term intensification. I'm pretty sure we will see an exposed circulation at some point later today. Naked swirl alert! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Naked swirl alert! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 The GFS Simulated IR temperature (OLR) is a good way to see how Karen is expected to battle the shear on the GFS verbatim. Note how there are repeated bursts of convection that attempt to axisymmetrize the low-level circulation with the mid-level vortex. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013100312/gfsfull_ir_watl.html This is traditionally how sheared TCs can continue to intensify, in bursts associated with pulses in convection. Each burst of convection produces a convective and stratiform plume that redistributes the PV profile in the mid and upper levels, which attempts to build anticyclonic outflow over the circulation center. The irrotational winds (divergent outflow) aid in temporarily countering the unfavorable synoptic scale flow. In addition, this moistens the core as convective elements rotate cyclonically around the system which allows for subsequent convective bursts that continue this positive feedback. Sheared storms are so difficult to predict, because its not very well understood whether the synoptic flow or the convective irrotational winds dominate the environment around a TC. In some sheared TC cases, the convection grows upscale and can become a larger contribution to the total flow vs. the non-convective synoptic scale motion. In this case, the synoptic scale flow can be modified enough to go into a new regime that ordinarily wouldn't exist if the TC didn't exist. In other cases, the convective contribution of the storm is not influential enough to modify the synoptic environment of the TC, and the system succumbs to shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Its rare that WPC embraces the Canadian: EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1201 PM EDT THU OCT 03 2013VALID 12Z SUN OCT 06 2013 - 12Z THU OCT 10 2013...TROPICAL STORM KAREN WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SESTATES......THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN EXPANDING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF HERTRACK...CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH REGARDING THE TRACK OF T.S.KAREN...WITH A TIGHT ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE AND PRESENCE OF ADEFINITIVE MID LATITUDE CYCLONE TO SWEEP THE SYSTEM TO THE NNE.THE MODEL THAT BEST FIT THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK WHILE ALSODEPICTING A WELL DEVELOPED CYCLONE...WAS THE 00Z CANADIAN. THISMODEL ALSO DID A REASONABLE JOB WITH THE UPPER MIDWESTCYCLOGENESIS THROUGH DAY 4. THEREAFTER WE RETURNED TO HEAVIERRELIANCE ON THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHEREAS THE OPERATIONALECMWF HAS TENDED TO FALL TOWARD THE SLOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. ANUPSTREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES SHOULD PHASEWITH OUR MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES CYCLONE TO YIELD A PHASED LOW LEVELCYCLONE LIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN SHORES OF HUDSON BAY BYDAY 4. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SHOULD MERGE WITH KAREN ON DAY 4NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...GENERALLY NEAR THE INTERSECTIONSOF GA/TN/SC/NC. BEFORE MERGING...MODELS SIGNAL A PREDECESSOR RAINEVENT NEAR THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY FROMDAYS 3 INTO 4. THEREAFTER...THOUGH MIDWEST CYCLONE LIFTS NORTHQUICKLY...THERE WILL BE A DEFINABLE SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THETROUGH APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.THIS...IN TANDEM WITH THE NORTHWARD FLUX OF TROPICAL AIR...SHOULDYIELD A FRONTAL WAVE TO KEEP ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL GOING INTOAT LEAST DAY 5.BACK TO THE WEST...WE CONTINUE TO TRUST THE LARGER SCALEPROGRESSION OF A POSITIVELY TILTED MEAN TROUGH INTO WESTERN NORTHAMERICA ON DAYS 5-7...WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BEING THESTEADIEST MODELING SYSTEM. THE SHORTWAVE DETAILS SHOW SO MUCH RUNTO RUN VARIABILITY THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO SIDE WITH ANYOPERATIONAL MODEL. BUT SEVERAL RUNS HAVE INDICATED A MOREPRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE DEVELOPING TOWARD THE BASE OF THE TROUGHAPPROACHING CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.BURKE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 I love TWC's overlapping pressure gradient map of the GFS and Euro. Wish I had something like that I could use regularly Here you go. http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/models/ecmwf-00/ec_sfc6-ani.html http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/models/ecmwf-00/ec_500c-ani.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Seriously... Who put an industrial strength fan in the ocean? Every storm seems to end up a naked swirl anymore. Hope it can get its act back together tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Cnn talking about gulf hurricane threat. If by hurricane they meant sheared gale i'd agree. Looks like debbie at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Cnn talking about gulf hurricane threat. If by hurricane they meant sheared gale i'd agree. Looks like debbie at best. The western half of the Gulf looks like a desert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Cnn talking about gulf hurricane threat. If by hurricane they meant sheared gale i'd agree. Looks like debbie at best. NHC forecasts it to hurricane and there are hurricane watches. What is CNN supposed to talk about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 guys the gfs showed the storm being sheared and convection being displaced to the east of the coc the past 4 runs... it won't ramp up until it nears the coast and beings a ne track. the thing wasn't ever forecasted to bomb out over the yucatan. it will be a case of how long the storm has over water as it traverses the coast off miss and the fl panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 The GFS is the only global model showing this robust solution with a strong TS/hurricane going into the FL panhandle. All of the other global models are farther to the left and more sheared (although a bit more robust than the last day or two). Given the current appearance, abundance of shear and dry air in the northern Gulf, it is hard for me to completely buy off on the GFS solution. As Phil said, it could certainly go through bursts of strengthening as convection periodically builds over the center, but this idea of steady strengthening to the coast and a vertically stacked system turning NE into the FL panhandle...not sure I can see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 This graphic shows decreasing shear profiles to the NW of the cyclone over the past 24 hours. Looking at this it wouldn't appear that the environment is all that unfavorable aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 the main differences in strength in regards to the gfs and the rest of the model guidance (other than the more western tracks into the dry air) is that the gfs gives karen a good 24hrs more over water as it moves ne offshore the gulf coast instead of making landfall before the front can move it ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 This graphic shows decreasing shear profiles to the NW of the cyclone over the past 24 hours. Looking at this it wouldn't appear that the environment is all that unfavorable aloft. First it has to cross an area of 20-30 kt shear and very dry air, and isn't even healthy looking to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Arc Cloud Alert! Don't see this thing intensifying at all in the short-term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 1002 mb but the winds aren't as exciting as this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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