EasternUSWX Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Arc Cloud Alert! Don't see this thing intensifying at all in the short-term Center doesn't look horrible though. At least it is not completely naked already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 1002 mb but the winds aren't as exciting as this morning. They are only on west side, east side should have stronger winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 We'll see when there's a dropsonde, but yeah so far pressure actually down a couple of mbs on extrap... 1002 mb but the winds aren't as exciting as this morning. Stronger winds are probably going to be on the east and southeast sides where there's better convection. Recon is only through NW quad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 3rd day of the month at 18:49ZAircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)Storm Number & Year: 12L in 2013Storm Name: Karen (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 3 Observation Number: 04A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 18:27:30ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°56'N 88°16'W (22.9333N 88.2667W) B. Center Fix Location: 154 miles (248 km) to the NW (323°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not AvailableD. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 37kts (~ 42.6mph)E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 37 nautical miles (43 statute miles) to the NW (308°) of center fixF. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 83° at 41kts (From the E at ~ 47.2mph)G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the NW (307°) of center fixH. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1001mb (29.56 inHg) - ExtrapolatedI. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 455m (1,493ft)J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 459m (1,506ft)K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableL. Eye Character: Not AvailableM. Eye Shape: Not AvailableN. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureN. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feetO. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesO. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section:Maximum Flight Level Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) which was observed 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the SE (134°) from the flight level center at 18:36:30ZMaximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 45kts (~ 51.8mph) which was observed 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the SE (134°) from the flight level center at 18:36:00ZSea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 New burst of convection near the center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Recon hitting 65mph on east side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Recon hitting 65mph on east side. I think that obs was in very heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 pressure starting to respond to the winds, gfs had the center surrounded by convection in ~36 hrs so if she can hang on until then we can see her really take off as she approaches the fl coast. i could see a ~85mph cane at landfall if these winds can hang on and pressure keeps dropping as the gfs shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 I think that obs was in very heavy rain. It's along the whole eastern side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 It's along the whole eastern side. The SFMR winds are in the 45-50 knot range, but I doubt NHC drops the winds back down until the mission is completely finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 NHC Video Briefing Too bad this thing looks like absolute crap. Interesting too see those tops in the western quad getting absolutely obliterated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TropicalAnalystwx13 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 998mb from recon. Winds are maintaining as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Both planes are near the center and both are finding surface winds around ~54 knots. The NOAA plane just hit the center with a pressure of 996 (extrap.) Karen is maintaining intensity for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 999.4mb extrap from the Airforce plane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 000URNT12 KWBC 032022VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL122013A. 03/20:05:51ZB. 23 deg 13 min N088 deg 28 min WC. 700 mb 3082 mD. 54 ktE. 015 deg 22 nmF. 125 deg 45 ktG. 015 deg 22 nmH. 999 mbI. 14 C / 2440 mJ. 17 C / 2443 mK. 13 C / NAL. NAM. NAN. 1345 / 7O. 1 / 1 nmP. NOAA2 0412A KAREN OB 04SONDE SPLASHED WITH 4 KNOTSBANDING NORTH SEMICIRCLEMAX FL WIND 45 KT 015/22 20:00:26Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 ^^ Amusing, someone is on a multi-Twitter rant about hurricane watches being up for Karen. He does have a point, sort of, about Sandy, but they did change that policy after the fact and rules are rules. Not saying it is right, but latest GFDL ensemble looks reasonable, anyway... Model spread isn't really that huge, more like some fairly decent sized cities, like New Orleans, Mobile and Pensacola not all *that* far from each other, IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 ^^ Amusing, someone is on a multi-Twitter rant about hurricane watches being up for Karen. He does have a point, sort of, about Sandy, but they did change that policy after the fact and rules are rules. Not saying it is right, but latest GFDL ensemble looks reasonable, anyway... Model spread isn't really that huge, more like some fairly decent sized cities, like New Orleans, Mobile and Pensacola not all *that* far from each other, IMHO Talk about an under-dispersive ensemble! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 gfs initialized at 1004, thru 24 looking sheared, shows pressure still at 1004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 down to 996mb as it finally makes the turn ne due south of nola about 100miles offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Good deal slower, hour 72, still hasn't made landfall. GFS smoking something.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Too bad this thing looks like absolute crap. Earl 1998 made it to Cat 2 and later 985 mb on a somewhat similar track despite being one of the fugliest sheared pieces of garbage in the history of the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 landfall at 78 on the panhandle...way slower. pretty much stalled it for 12 hrs offshore la before making the turn. shows little to no development over the next 36 hrs fwiw. EDIT: landfall further east...almost right on apalachee bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Earl 1998 made it to Cat 2 and later 985 mb on a somewhat similar track despite being one of the fugliest sheared pieces of garbage in the history of the tropics. I remember Earl... that was actually a pretty fun storm on the coast despite it looking like crap...it certainly wasn't crap in terms of impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 HWRF/GFDL are putting out some nice eye candy with their 18z runs, but both are likely overdoing the strength of this, as usual. 18z HWRF 18z GFDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Karen is really trying to fire convection near the COC.. but you can really see the effects of the shear and the dry air with the partially exposed center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 HWRF/GFDL are putting out some nice eye candy with their 18z runs, but both are likely overdoing the strength of this, as usual. 18z HWRF 18z hwrf karen.jpg 18z GFDL 18z gfdl karen.jpg Come now... likely overdone? You really think in 60 hrs this will be a Cat 3/Cat 4? Pure garbage the GFDL and HWRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 You really think in 60 hrs this will be a Cat 3/Cat 4? Pure garbage the GFDL and HWRF Of course not.. just showing it for the eye candy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 The GFDL ensmbles are interesting as well. Likely too strong, but worth noting. Anybody have any verification stats on how the GFDL ensembles have performed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Karen is really trying to fire convection near the COC.. but you can really see the effects of the shear and the dry air with the partially exposed center. Looks like it spit out a nice arc cloud. And judging by the cloud streamers at 93-95W, this is going to have a tough time wrapping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 The GFDL ensmbles are interesting as well. Likely too strong, but worth noting. Anybody have any verification stats on how the GFDL ensembles have performed? They have done terribly this year. They are prone to overdeveloping storms. I don't have quantitative verification statistics.. but I would imagine that the verification levels would be pretty low, at least in terms of intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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