Tullioz Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 FB page is first entry in the topic thread. When will the Gen Public know if these guys are safe? That is one M'fckr mean looking SOB that maybe should have been passed on. Man I would love to be there right now! I doubt that. These guys are going to be stuck there for several days if not weeks. They are going to see unimaginable human suffering and images they will never be able to erase from their minds. Four days after Bopha the stench of rotting animals and humans buried under the ruble was overwhelming in the town of Cateel. I watched as a young mother was digging out mud that was caked in the nostrils and mouth of her infants lifeless body after it was uncovered from where there home once stood in Baganga. This is no longer just tracking a monster storm, this is watching a catastrophe unfold. I hope everyone will stop for just a moment and say a prayer for those in the path of this storm. While Josh's presence there was optional, for the people who live there they had no choice but to ride it out. No offense to Josh, but it is those people that my heart goes out to at this hour. Life will never be the same for many where this storm has an impact today. I am 47 years old and have been a weather enthusiast since I was 8 years old, but watching this storm approach is sickening to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I understand the concern but let's not bury them quite so soon..... He should be fine from surge unless it tops 50 ft. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I'm seriously worried for Josh with respect to storm surge. I'm relatively confident he will be safe with the wind (it should be a bit lower where he is compared to directly on the coast and the building should be sturdy enough)... but the surge. Look at the geography of where that town is...at the tip of a funnel-shaped bay. The surge could, quite honestly, break world records there. I told him about this last time I talked to him and regards to the funneling effect of the bay. He said his hotel was 30 ft ASL and they had another 40 feet of hotel (concrete) living space on top of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sky-Chaser Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Good day all, Not on here much but I know Josh and his group post a lot on here ... First and foremost - Please let them be OK. Josh is a great guy and I would be devastated if he got hurt. The scary thing is not the "first" half of the storm affecting Tacloban City may be moderated to some extent by the NE flow off Samar. Once this eye passes, then comes the un-affected marine-boundary layer air - screaming directly into the bay and city from the ESE and SE. That part scares me. Also, seeing pressures below 960 MB from satellite is nuts - I hope these folks get pressure measurements. Also, they will be in survival mode for WEEKS after this passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I told him about this last time I talked to him and regards to the funneling effect of the bay. He said his hotel was 30 ft ASL and they had another 40 feet of hotel (concrete) living space on top of that. Just to get up 30 ft would be mind boggling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I told him about this last time I talked to him and regards to the funneling effect of the bay. He said his hotel was 30 ft ASL and they had another 40 feet of hotel (concrete) living space on top of that. Oh that's really good then. Even if they get a 50 ft storm surge that still leaves them with about 20 feet of hotel...and the force of the water that high *shouldn't* be enough to undermine the hotel (provided that there is no architectural fault with the structure). That does, however, leave them more vulnerable to higher winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Reinforced concrete structures can be surprisingly sturdy. How many of those do you think exist where they are? Even so, can reinforced concrete handle winds close to 250MPH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Why in the world are they still hoping they get in the eye wall...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 This. can the morbid "omg they may die" posts, please stop? come on now... there is a time and place for that and it isn't in this thread. Wish them luck and just watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 How many of those do you think exist where they are? Even so, can reinforced concrete handle winds close to 250MPH? Western hotels in areas like this are generally reinforced concrete and are some of the most well built structures in the country. They are indeed built to western plus standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 How many of those do you think exist where they are? Even so, can reinforced concrete handle winds close to 250MPH? Reinforced concrete structures are often the only things left standing after an EF5 tornado, so let's stop with this for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Oh that's really good then. Even if they get a 50 ft storm surge that still leaves them with about 20 feet of hotel...and the force of the water that high *shouldn't* be enough to undermine the hotel (provided that there is no architectural fault with the structure). That does, however, leave them more vulnerable to higher winds. They're not flying out of the airport though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 They're not flying out of the airport though.. Provided that the island isn't completely washed away... once the surge recedes, a dirt runway can be cleared for small planes. In addition, I imagine there will be a ton of ship/boat activity. Also helicopters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wendy Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 They probably will first update on twitter https://twitter.com/typhoonfury (James Reynolds) Jim Edds is also in Tacloban https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 can the morbid "omg they may die" posts, please stop? come on now... there is a time and place for that and it isn't in this thread. Wish them luck and just watch. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 surge from Dr Masters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Pardon my ignorance, but is Josh a meterologist or a scientist? I only ask if he does these trips for professional reasons or simply for his passion for Mother Nature. Thoughts with the guys riding this one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Pardon my ignorance, but is Josh a meterologist or a scientist? I only ask if he does these trips for professional reasons or simply for his passion for Mother Nature. Thoughts with the guys riding this one out. He isn't, but the service he provides in gathering storm data is invaluable to the scientific community. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 He will be fine, it's the people who are native to the area that are in serious trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 He isn't, but the service he provides in gathering storm data is invaluable to the scientific community. Indeed is is invaluable - thank you for the quick answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Provided that the island isn't completely washed away... once the surge recedes, a dirt runway can be cleared for small planes. In addition, I imagine there will be a ton of ship/boat activity. Also helicopters. The guys chasing this storm will be there for some time to come. Even if the airport is serviceable shortly after the storm passes, getting them out will not be the priority of the officials. They are there for the long haul and their ability to communicate with the outside world will only last as long as their batteries and if they are relying on cell providers in the region, that will cease to exist in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 the boys on the hunt. Wishing them a safe journey and historical video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Josh has balls of steel to be out in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The guys chasing this storm will be there for some time to come. Even if the airport is serviceable shortly after the storm passes, getting them out will not be the priority of the officials. They are there for the long haul and their ability to communicate with the outside world will only last as long as their batteries and if they are relying on cell providers in the region, that will cease to exist in a few hours. I understand Bopha was just horrible because of its LF position but Megi did not cause as many deaths, what are the similarities and differences since you know the country so well. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The guys chasing this storm will be there for some time to come. Even if the airport is serviceable shortly after the storm passes, getting them out will not be the priority of the officials. They are there for the long haul and their ability to communicate with the outside world will only last as long as their batteries and if they are relying on cell providers in the region, that will cease to exist in a few hours. It depends on how the local authorities handle it... every jurisdiction handles it differently. Some like to get all non-locals out and out of the way of cleanup/rebuilding ASAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 It depends on how the local authorities handle it... every jurisdiction handles it differently. Some like to get all non-locals out and out of the way of cleanup/rebuilding ASAP. I am at this point deeply concerned but all we can do is hope they are in a safe place and have means of survival. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I understand Bopha was just horrible because of its LF position but Megi did not cause as many deaths, what are the similarities and differences since you know the country so well. thanks My best guess after thinking on this awhile is that the people in the North are used to typhoons. I recall talking to locals in Baganga and they had no idea what to expect when Bopha made landfall. Most said they were completely caught off guard and went about their day as normal. The morning before the storm the region that took a direct hit was only under a storm level 1. It was not until late afternoon it was upgraded to level 2. many people went to sleep without knowing such a monster was bearing down on them. Here is a link to a conversation I had with a friend of mine who rode out the storm. You will hear his recollection of the events that day and it is clear he had no idea what was about to unfold that night. You will also hear around the 3 minute mark how he lost 6 family members including 4 grandsons because they refused to take the storm seriously. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ecNaZAPcqA So basically the officials dropped the ball on that one and many people died because of it. That, and of course lack of experience with such powerful storms. It depends on how the local authorities handle it... every jurisdiction handles it differently. Some like to get all non-locals out and out of the way of cleanup/rebuilding ASAP. The authorities here in the Philippines can't seem to handle anything well, especially following disasters such as this. Everyone seems to step on each others toes to get credit for helping the victims from the president down to the barangay captains. The corruption following Bopha lead to riots here in Davao City 6 months after the storm because relief supplies still were not being delivered to those areas affected by the Typhoon. Baganga today doesn't look much better off than it did in the weeks following the storm and there are still thousands who depend on aid for their daily food consumption. I am not sure if getting a handful of foreigners out will be high on the priority list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Adv. 19 from the JTWC is in and has it at 170 knots (196 mph) gusts to 205 knots (236 mph). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Adv. 19 from the JTWC is in and has it at 170 knots (196 mph) gusts to 205 knots (236 mph). I can't recall ever seeing 170 KTS in an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Wow!!!! 236 in gusts!! Scary storm no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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